Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Southern 500 at Darlington

It's playoff time in the NASCAR Cup Series.

Giddy up.

The field of 16 is now set as they begin a 10-race dash toward the championship with the contenders getting trimmed every three races.

If you win one of those races, you punch your ticket to the next round.

My model says one of the contenders is a value to do exactly that Sunday in the Southern 500.

Let's kick things off by looking at my model's pre-practice simulations, and then we can discuss my favorite bets of the week in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

NASCAR Predictions for the Southern 500

NASCAR Betting Picks for the Southern 500

William Byron to Win (+600)

William Byron absolutely dominated this race in the spring, leading a whopping 243 of 297 laps. He fell short, though, in finishing second, which is a common tale this year. He's due for regression, and I think more could come Sunday.

Byron has led 80-plus laps five times this year; he has won just one of those races. That came a couple weeks ago in Iowa, when he eked one out on fuel mileage. Another one of the tracks he dominated was Charlotte, which -- like Darlington -- features plentiful tire wear.

During seven Next Gen races at Darlington, Byron has led more laps than everybody but Kyle Larson, and he got a win in 2023. The model may be overselling him at 19.3%, but I agree that he's undervalued at +600.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+850)

I've got value on AJ Allmendinger across the board, including at +30000 to win. I think the model is overselling his upside, so I'm going to settle for a top-10, but he's at least a consideration in more aggressive markets.

Allmendinger has excelled at tracks like this in 2025. He finished top-10 in Las Vegas, Homestead, and Charlotte, the latter two being two of the best comps for Darlington on the schedule. In the spring race here, he finished 18th with a 17th-place average running position.

Allmendinger's form has fallen off of late, but he was at least competitive in Iowa with a 15th-place average running position. I've got faith he can regain that form as they head to a track that suits both his skills and his car this year.

Michael McDowell to Finish Top 10 (+1100)

Michael McDowell is another veteran who pops most when tire conservation matters, making him a quality option at this number.

In seven Next Gen Darlington races, McDowell has three top-10 finishes. Those all came with Front Row Motorsports, but his teammate, Carson Hocevar, has shown Spire has the speed to compete at intermediate tracks, too.

Although McDowell has been slower to adapt to his new team, things have trended up. He finished seventh in Charlotte, had a 13th-place average running position in Dover, and finished 17th in Richmond, another track with tons of tire falloff. He has typically struggled at Richmond, so that was a positive in my eyes.

McDowell's not in the playoffs, but neither is anybody else at Spire, so we shouldn't see any attention pushed away from this team. I think +1100 is a very generous mark, given I've got him at 12.9% to finish top 10.

Austin Dillon to Finish Top 10 (+1200)

Unlike Allmendinger and McDowell, Austin Dillon is in the playoffs, meaning Richard Childress Racing is going to put all its weight behind him. Even without accounting for that, he's a value for me.

My model is typically much lower on Dillon than market, so it was a surprise to show value here. But it makes sense; the model puts weight in recent form, and Dillon won Richmond, was 10th in Iowa, and finished 15th in Dover. He also finished 13th in Homestead earlier in the year.

Although Dillon hasn't been great at Darlington in the Next Gen era, he does have 5 career top-10s and 2 top-5s in 18 races. That top-10 rate is 27.8%. I've got him well below that at 12.3%, but even that is easily clear of his betting odds at +1200.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.