Australian Open Women's Semifinals Betting Guide: Wednesday 1/24/24

The Australian Open is into the second week, and we should be treated to some fantastic matches in the coming days.

What better way to get in on the action than by making wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can find betting value in the women's semifinals.

Australian Open Best Bets

Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Gauff ML (+182)

I could see this match going either way, so this bet is pretty straightforward.

Coco Gauff has been on an incredible run that dates back to last summer, amassing a 34-4 record since a first-round loss at Wimbledon. Over that time, her only losses have come against top-five opponents Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula (twice apiece), and she's taken home four titles, including her first Grand Slam title at the 2023 US Open.

It just so happens that major final came against this very same opponent, and Gauff actually holds a 4-2 edge in her head-to-head against Aryna Sabalenka.

None of this is to write off Sabalenka, though, who is the defending Australian Open champion and has now made six straight major semifinals. She has been completely locked in here, too. Aryna hasn't dropped a single set through five matches, with her longest one going a tidy one hour and 11 minutes in the quarterfinals.

This is in stark contrast to what we saw from Coco her last time out, as she needed three sets and over three hours to hold off an upset bid from Marta Kostyuk. Gauff didn't bring her A-game to that match, and if she does the same versus Sabalenka, she won't last very long.

Admittedly, betting against an in-form Sabalenka is a frightening thought, but value is value, and that's what we're seeing on the Gauff side. Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings actually view Gauff as the favorite, projecting a 57.0% win probability. The American proved at the US Open that she can thrive on the big stage, and perhaps we see that again tonight.

Dayana Yastremska vs. Qinwen Zheng

Zheng -3.5 Games (-110)

Many are probably viewing the previous match the true women's final, but World No. 15 Qinwen Zheng could be a future star, and she was already a dark horse contender entering the tournament.

Per Tennis Abstract, Zheng has a 71% win percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. The 21-year-old finally broke through at a Grand Slam at last year's US Open, making it to her first quarterfinals before bowing out to eventual runner-up Sabalenka. In the time since, she won her second career title (Zhengzhou) and was a finalist at Zhuhai.

Qualifier Dayana Yastremska is this year's Cinderella story. Ranked 93rd, she's just the fifth qualifier in the Open Era to ever make it to a major semifinal. It's easy to make comparisons to Emma Raducanu, who won the 2021 US Open as a qualifier.

It's not like Yastremska's had some cupcake draw, either. In addition to winning three qualifying matches, she's had to defeat five straight opponents ranked in the top 50, including three seeded players (Marketa Vondrousova, Emma Navarro, and Victoria Azarenka).

It's worth noting that the 23-year-old is no ordinary qualifier as someone who was ranked as high as 21st in 2020 before a doping suspension (that she was eventually cleared of) derailed her career. But following that hiatus, she failed to make it past the first round at eight consecutive majors until breaking through at this event.

Given how well Yastremska has performed here, it's possible we're witnessing a pivotal turning point in her career, and her ranking will move up significantly after this run. But my lean is to back the player who has shown more consistency of late, and that's clearly Zheng. Entering the Australian Open, Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings ranked Zheng as the sixth-best player in the entire field.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.