ALCS Betting Guide: Astros at Rangers, Game 3

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Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Astros ML (+110)

Do not expect the Houston Astros to go quietly into that good night.

The defending champs may be down 0-2 as they head to Globe Life Field, but they're certainly not out of it... yet.

A loss in Game 3 would essentially clinch a World Series birth for the Texas Rangers. Only once in MLB history has a team come all the way back from a 3-0 series deficit, and 31 were promptly swept in Game 4.

So, while this isn't technically a must-win for Houston, it is for all intents and purposes.

If you would've asked me two months ago if I'd be backing Cristian Javier in a must-win, I'd have either called you crazy or told you to go back to 2022.

But here we are.

Javier -- who pitched to a 5.58 ERA and gave up a .340 wOBA from June 1st onward -- is coming off arguably his best start of the entire season. Javier threw 5.0 one-hit innings in their Game 3 win during the ALDS. Though he walked five hitters, he struck out 9 and generated 16 swinging strikes.

He'll need to bring it again tonight if he wants to flip the script on his most recent visit to Globe Life Field. In his only other matchup against the Rangers this season, Texas pounded him for 8 runs across 4.1 innings of work.

Javier was hardly the only righty Texas bludgeoned this summer. They finished the season with the third-highest wOBA (.339), the second-highest ISO (.195), and the fourth-highest wRC+ (114). Only Atlanta (38.1%) had a higher rate of hard contact (37.1%) in that split.

Yet, I have faith in Houston's offense. Though they've scored just four runs through the first two games, they have just three fewer hits than Texas. They also match up favorably with Rangers starter Max Scherzer.

"Mad Max" hasn't pitched since September 12th due to a right shoulder strain. The Rangers have said that 65-70 pitches will be the starting point for Game 3, but I don't think he'll last that long.

For as legendary of a career as Scherzer's put together, he didn't look much like a three-time Cy Young winner this season. In addition to a marginal velocity decrease, Scherzer's ERA jumped north of 3.75 for the first time since 2011. On top of that, he allowed an 8.5% barrel rate, 36.9% hard-hit rate, and 1.65 HR/9 -- all of which are career-worst marks.

Perhaps most telling of Scherzer's subtle decline was his 13.3% swinging-strike rate and 28.0% strikeout rate, both of which are at their lowest levels since 2014.

None of this is to say Scherzer is bad now. On the contrary, those numbers remain borderline elite.

Borderline elite. Just not elite. They're small changes, but ones that can make a world of difference against a team as experienced as the Astros.

I don't think the moment will be too big for him, but I do think Houston will have the upper hand. They faced him in his second-to-last start during the regular season, putting 7 runs on him in 3.0 innings of work before their eventual 12-3 win.

I'm expecting a similar result tonight, hence the straight moneyline play. If you're anticipating a close game, Astros +1.5 (-172) is certainly a fine play as well. The odds aren't great on their own, but you can pair that with some of Annie Nader's favorite player props and consider FanDuel's Same Game Parlay Profit Boost.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.