ACC Tournament Prop Bets for Tuesday 3/12/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
ACC Tournament Prop Bets for Tuesday 3/12/24

College basketball season is in full swing, and via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, we can get into the action by checking out prop bets for key games.

For bettors, numberFire's Matchup Heat Map helps identify favorable game environments, while KenPom and Sports-Reference offer a wide range of team-level statistics. We can also turn to Bart Torvik and RealGM for advanced player stats and splits.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and dive into our wealth of statistical data to find today's best prop bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

ACC Tournament Prop Bets

#13 Georgia Tech vs. #12 Notre Dame, 2:00 p.m. ET

Baye Ndongo Over 10.5 Points (-130)

A matchup between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will kick off the first round of the ACC Tournament, and Baye Ndongo should play a big role in securing a victory for the Yellow Jackets.

Averaging 12.0 points per game, Ndongo serves as the second-leading scorer on Georgia Tech, right behind Miles Kelly (14.1 points per game).

Ndongo has scored over 10.5 points in 17 out of his 28 games this season (60.7% of contests).

He is averaging 27.6 minutes per game and should, at the very least, play these minutes this afternoon, especially since he will be in charge of guarding Notre Dame's Tae Davis.

If we only account for games where Ndongo played 25 minutes or more, he is clearing 10.5 points at a 76.2% clip. These -130 odds, meanwhile, imply just a 56.5% probability.

Notre Dame comes in with a great defense, owning the 29th-best adjusted defensive efficiency margin in college basketball (per Bart Torvik).

But among the places where Georgia Tech could falter on offense, I'd expect it to be behind the three-point line. The Fighting Irish give up the sixth-lowest three-point rate in the ACC and force opponents to shoot the three-ball at a mere 32.6% clip.

Luckily for Ndongo backers, three-point shooting isn't a part of his game. On the season, he has taken just 11 shot attempts from downtown.

Look for Georgia Tech to attack the paint in lieu of three-point shooting, which in turn, will help Ndongo get more involved on offense.

These teams met up twice in the regular season. In these two games, Georgia Tech shot fewer three-point attempts (3PA) in regulation than their season average, while Ndongo scored 16 and 11 points in regulation, respectively.

#15 Louisville at #10 NC State, 4:30 p.m. ET

Jayden Taylor Over 19.5 Points (+450)

The first day of the ACC Tournament brings us some pretty major injury news. DJ Horne, the star and leading scorer (16.8 points per game) for the NC State Wolfpack, is a game-time decision for this afternoon's battle against the Louisville Cardinals.

While Horne's playing status could go either way, I do think the uncertainty regarding his potential limitations could make targeting Jayden Taylor's alt points prop worthwhile.

As scoring goes, Taylor is the next man up for NC State. When Horne left this past Saturday's game with an injury, Taylor responded by scoring 20 points in the second half alone.

If Horne is out, we could see Taylor go haywire against Louisville's weak defense. But even if Horne is good to go, there is still value in Taylor's points prop.

Taylor plays 28.2 minutes per game and is rarely a victim to foul trouble. Given the importance of this game, we should expect Taylor to remain on the floor for the lion's share of this game.

In contests where Taylor played at least 22 minutes, he scored over 19.5 points at a 23.1% rate. These +450 odds suggest just an 18.2% probability, so the value is there.

Louisville allows teams to shoot the three-ball at a 37.2% clip, good for the highest percentage allowed in the ACC and the 17th-highest percentage allowed in D1 basketball.

Taylor is a downtown threat and clocks in right behind Horne in 3PA per game. He's also great at getting to the foul line, managing to shoot 63 more free-throw attempts than the next-most player on NC State this season. Louisville, meanwhile, surrenders the third-highest free-throw rate in the ACC.

Since Taylor is in a spot to go off, as he has scored over 19.5 points in three straight 20-plus-minute contests, it might be a good move to target the alt market here. But you can also get Jayden Taylor Over 12.5 Points at -125.

#14 Miami at #11 Boston College, 7:00 p.m. ET

Claudell Harris Over 11.5 Points (-130)

Claudell Harris is averaging 13.3 points per game for the Boston College Eagles and has a great matchup on deck against the Miami Hurricanes, so let's look for him to kick off the ACC Tournament with a bang.

Harris has scored over 11.5 points in 60.0% of his games this season, showing there is value in these -130 odds, which imply just a 56.5% probability.

He plays 30.7 minutes per game, so if we remove a trio of games where Harris played less than 25 minutes, he is clearing 11.5 points at a 66.7% clip.

Miami surrenders a ton of three-pointers. Not only do they let up the highest three-point rate in the ACC, but they're also giving up the sixth-highest three-point rate in all of college basketball.

We should expect Harris to take advantage of the Hurricanes' poor three-point defense. He shoots the three-ball at a fair 36.9% clip and leads Boston College in 3PA per game (6.2).

Harris has gone up against Miami twice this season and shot a combined 16 3PA in this span. He ended these games with 15 and 13 points, respectively.

Given that this matchup features a 2.5-point spread and a decent 147.5 over/under, this looks to be an advantageous scoring environment, especially for starters who can get it done from anywhere on the court.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.