4 FanDuel NFL Values to Target in Week 11
Finding value is a key part of daily fantasy football on FanDuel. We need to identify the low-salary players who have the potential to pay huge dividends, which allows you to play studs elsewhere in your lineup.
As always, we're looking at players on the main slate, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
FanDuel Salary: $7,400
It's not like the quarterback pool is weak this Sunday, but it's not especially deep. There are only four games on the main slate that have a total higher than 45 points on FanDuel. Of the eight QBs involved in those games, only four are salaried under $7,500. I don't want anything to do with Aidan O'Connell, Geno Smith, or Matthew Stafford, but Justin Fields? Justin Fields is interesting.
Fields and his Chicago Bears take on the Detroit Lions this week. The Lions have allowed the 10th-most adjusted fantasy points per dropback (0.41) and the ninth-highest passing success rate (47.7%), so the matchup is solid.
He went absolutely nuclear (40.4 points) in a home meeting with Detroit last season and then was serviceable (17.2 points) in his road date with them despite completing just 40.8% of his passes.
He hasn't had a 40-point game this season (yet?) but had 28.9 and 33-point outings in his two full games before getting hurt.
That's the upside we're looking at this week.
Fields is also getting discounted here, which I love to look for when targeting values. In six starts this season, he was salaried under $8,000 just twice. In the two games prior to his injury, he was at $8,500.
numberFire projects Fields for 18.3 FanDuel points -- tied for seventh among QBs.
There's certainly some risk involved here. Fields (assuming he's good to go) will be making his first start since Week 6 after missing over a month with a thumb injury. He's reportedly not even 100%, but if he's healthy enough to start I'm willing to throw him out there in such a fantasy-friendly game script.
I think you could go Kyler Murray ($7,600) here, as well, but he's a bit higher than Fields. At his current salary, Murray is numberFire's biggest quarterback value of the week given a 20.0-point projection.
Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans
FanDuel Salary: $6,500
Coming off a monster 22.6-point outing, Devin Singletary is someone I'm more than willing to run back this week.
This week, Singletary could again be in line to see a majority of the RB opportunities with Pierce not practicing early in the week. If he's ruled out against the Arizona Cardinals, Singletary could feast with such a favorable matchup.
Arizona has allowed the fifth-highest RB rush success rate (45%) and the ninth-most RB rush Net Expected Points (NEP; numberFire's expected points added model) per carry. On top of that, they've surrendered the most attempts per game (26.9), the sixth-most yards per game (110.7), and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (10) to the position.
There isn't a huge track record of Singletary being fantasy-relevant in Houston, but if he's the primary back in this soft of a matchup, he'll be a staple in my DFS lineups this week.
Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
FanDuel Salary: $5,400
Michael Wilson is someone who almost has to be in Kyler Murray lineups, but he has some standalone value as well given the low salary.
The third-round pick flashed fantasy potential with a 23.1-point outing back in Week 4 but hasn't eclipsed double-digit points since.
However, with Kyler back last week, Wilson saw some really encouraging utilization. He ran a route on 91.2% of dropbacks, commanded a 19.4% target share, and saw four downfield (10+ yards) targets.
Assuming that utilization holds, Wilson could feast against a Texans defense that's allowed the 14th-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.42) to wide receivers.
They've shown some real cracks in the last two weeks, having given up the fourth-most yards per route run (2.03) and the 10th-highest average depth of target (12.6) over that span.
Wilson should benefit from the same high-scoring game environment as Singletary. Arizona only has a 22.0-point implied team total, but a potentially negative game environment could lead to even more looks for the rookie wideout.
At his $5,400 salary, Michael Wilson holds a ton of value in what looks to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers
FanDuel Salary: $5,200
Luke Musgrave has quietly been serviceable the last two weeks, totaling 12.6 and 7.4 FanDuel points.
He's commanded a 12.9% target share over that span but has notably run a route on 70.4% of dropbacks. On top of that, he's seen a 12.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT).
Love has a good chance to continue cooking against a Los Angeles Chargers defense that's allowed the 14th-highest passing success rate (47.1%), so Musgrave should continue to be heavily involved.
That's especially true given that the Chargers have surrendered the 11th-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.41), the sixth-most yards per route run (1.53), and the fourth-most targets per game (8.3) to opposing tight ends.
There are a lot of mouths to feed in this Green Bay Packers offense, but Musgrave's growing role has tied right with Jordan Love's recent improvement. In a negative game script against a soft defense, the rookie can certainly outperform his $5,200 salary.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.