4 Busts to Avoid at Wide Receiver: Beware of DK Metcalf, Christian Watson

Wide receivers will be flying off the board early and often in fantasy football drafts this year, so make sure you're avoiding the ones who may break your heart.

Identifying potential sleepers and busts is a key part of the preparation for all drafters. One can make your team, and the other might leave you asking yourself what went wrong at the end of the season.

Missing on receivers in the year of receivers can be a brutal blow, so here's a look at four that you may want to reconsider.

All four of these receivers are going within the top 75 of FantasyPros' half-PPR rankings.

Early-Round Wide Receivers to Avoid

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks selected Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. That means more mouths to feed -- and less targets for D.K. Metcalf.

Metcalf is currently being selected as the WR15 ahead of the likes of Deebo Samuel and Amari Cooper, who both averaged more points per game than Metcalf last season.

Calling Metcalf a potential bust isn't a discredit to his talent; he has plenty of that. It comes down to opportunities, and some of those are going to be taken, but he also wasn't as good as a top-15 wideout should be. The 10.7 points per game in 2023 was the 27th-best amongst wideouts. His 76.9% true catch rate which was also 81st in the league. Not great.

He brought in 6 touchdowns in 2023 also despite having the second-most red zone targets (27). That could play to him scoring more in the new season, but with new weapons in town and a clear focus on the run in the red zone, there's just no way to feel confident one way or the other.

For where he's going, the risk of taking him over the other wideouts around him doesn't stack up.

D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears

D.J. Moore is going as the WR22, which is pretty normal for his usual value...but it still feels it could be a bit high with the talent of WRs this season.

The highest finish Moore has had is a WR18 finish in 2019, and he's never eclipsed the 200 points mark in a single season. Yet he continues to be ranked higher than players like Jerry Jeudy and Tyler Lockett.

While he will be the unquestioned WR1 for his team, there's difficulty in figuring out what kind of player Justin Fields will be outside of the fantasy realm.

There's a lot of excitement for Fields this year, but until we know what his development as a passer looks like, we can't be sure. Last season, the Chicago Bears' quarterback had just two games over 200 yards passing -- two. He had as many games under 100 passing yards as he did over 200. There will need to be serious improvements for Fields overall to make Moore a fantasy starter, which is what he projects as currently.

Moore has flashed WR1 ability, but until he has a quarterback who you can trust to get him the ball consistently, he feels like a guy you don't want to spend capital on.

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

How can you not be excited about Christian Watson this season? Look at his current ADP, and then look at his quarterback.

Watson is currently going as a top 25 wide receiver with an ADP of 64.7 -- slotting in as a borderline WR2, more likely FLEX option. That's not a bad spot if Aaron Rodgers was still throwing to him. Instead, it'll be Jordan Love taking the reigns for the Green Bay Packers which makes everyone who plays for Green Bay a major question mark -- including Watson.

Love's career numbers are small but not all inviting. In his lone start in 2021, he finished 19-for-34 with 190 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He was better in his limited action in 2022, but there's still enough to worry about that makes it hard to justify Watson where he's going.

The way the 24-year-old broke onto the scene last year was impressive -- especially after fighting off injuries that made him miss three games and take a little bit to get up to speed. He finished with 41 receptions, 611 receiving yards, 80 rushing yards, and 9 total touchdowns. Those are excellent numbers, but eight of the nine touchdowns came in a four-game stretch. That's a bit worrisome with Rodgers out of the picture anyways.

Going ahead of players like Brandon Aiyuk and Christian Kirk makes Watson a hesitant choice based on their consistency last season and unexpected quarterback play. He could be a star...or he could suffer at the hands of the unknown. Beware.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Life without Tom Brady is going to be hard, and no one may feel that more than Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.

For this instance, we're just going to talk about Godwin since he's first up in the majority of drafts. It's just difficult to be excited about a team that will be led by Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask.

Godwin has had himself a number of great fantasy seasons in his career -- including a WR2 finish with 233.1 in 2019. His 2022 started earlier than expected following a torn ACL late in the 2021 season; he managed to play 15 games and averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game.

Much of that output came from so many opportunities. Godwin finished the season with 102 catches on 142 targets, and that isn't happening under Mayfield or Trask. Now, if you're going to choose between Godwin and Evans, the former is the better pick, but if you're someone who reads his name and thinks he will be the player of old in fantasy, you're sadly mistaken.

Godwin enters the season as a flex option at best. It's the safest way to look at him.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.