4 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 17

With the playoffs approaching and stakes rising, teams are starting to show us which players they feel the need to feature.

For those with playoff seeding, divisions, and more on the line, they're going to lean on their studs, halting any conservation of energy they may have been utilizing earlier in the year. And for those with eyes set toward 2026, we could see them scale back in order to avoid injuries that could linger into next year.

Which player props stand out for Week 17 once we consider those factors? Here are my favorite options in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 17

Brian Thomas Jr. to Record 70-Plus Receiving Yards (+250)

Brian Thomas Jr. has looked a lot better since returning from his most recent injury, and I think we still have a buy-low window here.

Thomas was in a rough spot when he got shelved with an ankle injury in Week 9. At that point in the year, Thomas had a -12.3% catch rate over expected (CROE) and was averaging 1.58 yards per route run.

We've now got a four-game sample on Thomas since that ankle injury. His CROE in that split is up to 7.2%, and he's averaging 1.75 yards per route run. Although that's not back to where he was in his stellar rookie season, it's trending the right direction.

We know Thomas is hyper-talented when things are clicking. Trevor Lawrence has finally hit his stride, and now the Jacksonville Jaguars get to play in a dome. The lingering risk around Thomas keeps me from laying -114 on a baseline market, but the alt market gives enough upside to compensate for the potential for him to turn back into a pumpkin.

Ashton Jeanty Under 70.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

This is the ultimate "stoppable force meets a moveable object" matchup. The market seems to be focusing more on the latter than the former.

Yes, the New York Giants are brutal against the run. Their numbers are outlierishly bad. They're letting up a 15.0% explosive run rate to backs, more than a percentage point higher than any other team in the league. This is the kind of matchup that moves the needle.

The Las Vegas Raiders just happen to be equally hapless on the ground. On early downs, they're averaging -0.09 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per carry. The league average is 0.02.

Because of that, Ashton Jeanty -- despite clearly being talented -- has averaged just 55.2 rushing yards per game and gone over 70.5 rushing yards 3 times all season. They still want to feature Jeanty, given he played 92.5% of the snaps last week, but with Brock Bowers going on IR, it's clear the Las Vegas Raiders don't want their young stars getting hurt. That gives me the final nudge I need to plug this under even in an elite matchup.

James Cook Over 104.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-114)

The Buffalo Bills are finally doing the thing we've been begging them to do: feature James Cook. This evolving mindset makes Cook a value in a big matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Cook has played more than 70% of the snaps five times this year. Two of those have come in the past three games, and he had 32 carries in the game before that stretch started. He's averaging 19.1 carries per game this year, way up from his previous career high of 13.9. This volume has helped Cook go over 104.5 rushing plus receiving yards in 11 of 15 games, including 6 straight.

The matchup isn't bad as the Eagles have let up an 11.0% explosive run rate to backs, above the league average of 10.0%. Once you combine that with Cook's volume and the stakes of this game, I think there's value in the over even at a massive number.

Caleb Williams Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Truthfully, I really like Brock Purdy's rushing yardage over in this game, as well. Both quarterbacks' legs seem to be a bit underrated. I'll just give the slight edge to Caleb Williams.

With the Chicago Bears playing in big games, Williams has started to lean on his athleticism. Of his 8 games with 20-plus rushing yards, 6 have come from late October on.

He may not have to scramble a lot here against a lackluster San Francisco 49ers pass rush, but he will get some designed runs. Williams is averaging 1.6 designed runs per game. He'll likely need some scrambles, too, to go over 16.5 yards, but with the 1 seed still in the Bears' grasp, I don't think we'll see him suddenly become conservative with his legs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.