4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 12

Whenever you're betting the NFL, it's important not to put too much weight into narratives.

The Philadelphia Eagles are a great example of this. The narrative is that they've had infighting and frustration since the start of 2023, and yet they're 8-2 and the defending Super Bowl champs.

If we bet based on narratives, we'd be betting against the Eagles most weeks, and it wouldn't go well. I touched that stove last week and got burnt.

But I didn't learn my lesson. We're going back at it again this week.

And this one isn't due to narrative. It's due to my model's spread and total predictions, which have Sunday's matchup between the Eagles and Dallas Cowboys far closer than where the betting markets have it. Models can get caught up in narratives, too, due to the biases of the people who run them, but I do think the Cowboys are a value.

Let's start with why I'm backing the 'Boys and then dig into other bets I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Week 12 Spread and Total Bets

Eagles at Cowboys

Cowboys Moneyline (+144)

If you want to take the points, I don't blame you. But with the Cowboys +3.5 sitting at -122 -- and with betting against the Eagles being a risky endeavor -- I'd rather go for the moneyline, instead.

This one is all about the data and nothing to do with the drama. After adjusting for schedule, the Cowboys are averaging 0.12 Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per play on early downs; the Eagles are at 0.07 and now won't have stud right tackle Lane Johnson.

Even without using the tush push, the Cowboys also best the Eagles in late-down success rate. They're at 45.2% while the Eagles are at 41.8%. Considering the cheat code at their disposal, the fact they're below the league average of 44.5% is concerning.

Defensively, the Eagles are the far better team, and they're clearly on the ascent due to all their additions at edge. I've given the Eagles a significant defensive boost, and yet I've still got this spread at less than a point.

We can fear the boogeyman that is the Eagles all we want, and that fear is justified based on their results. But the Cowboys' offense has been the better unit this year, and they're at home. I'm willing to give them a swing at forgiving odds.

Vikings at Packers

Packers -6.5 (-112)

Even with the Green Bay Packers' injuries and their complete flops against inferior opponents, I don't understand why this spread is just 6.5.

Things have been tough for J.J. McCarthy so far. He's 38th in Passing NEP per drop back out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, right behind two rookies (Cameron Ward and Dillon Gabriel) and three guys who have lost their starting jobs (Spencer Rattler, Justin Fields, and Russell Wilson). Some of that is due to critical drops by his receivers, but it has been a struggle to this point.

That doesn't mean McCarthy will never succeed. It's still early in his career, and he played two of his games without key pieces in the offense. I just have a hard time thinking it'll turn around by Sunday.

Despite their issues, the Packers are still third in numberFire's schedule-adjusted pass offense rankings, and Christian Watson has helped inject some juice into the receiver corps. Even with a significant downgrade for Tucker Kraft, I've still got the Packers favored by 9.5 here, allowing me to lay the points and bet against a scuffling Vikings offense.

Jets at Ravens

Total Over 44.5 (-110)

Imagine not getting hyped for a Tyrod Taylor revenge game. Couldn't be me.

Taylor takes over as the New York Jets' starter, and I don't hate this as a buy-low spot. In Taylor's last extended starting action -- in 2023 with the New York Giants -- he averaged 0.07 Passing NEP per drop back. Justin Fields is at -0.04 for the season.

We do have to downgrade them for no Garrett Wilson, but the situation is less dire now that John Metchie III and Adonai Mitchell are in town. They're at least competent bodies, which is more than they could have said the first time Wilson missed time.

Truthfully, though, this over is more about the Baltimore Ravens. Last week's struggles are excusable given high winds and how well the Cleveland Browns' defense plays at home. They now get to play in Baltimore for the first time since Lamar Jackson's return, and they hung 30 and 41 points in their two home games with him early in the year.

The Ravens should be able to get theirs. We just need something out of the Jets, and with Taylor at the helm against his old team, I think we can bank on getting that.

Jaguars at Cardinals

Total Under 47.5 (-115)

As we've discussed throughout the year, offensive efficiency is the key driver of my totals model. I don't have enough faith in these two to think this total should be above a key number in 47.

Yes, the Jacksonville Jaguars cooked last week, thumping the Los Angeles Chargers, 35-6. Even with that, they're still numberFire's 24th-ranked passing offense. They move up to 20th overall thanks to an impressive ground attack.

As for the Arizona Cardinals, they put up huge raw stats last week thanks to a massively negative game script. But after adjusting for the matchup with a battered San Francisco 49ers defense, they actually underperformed expectations in early-down passing, early-down rushing, and late-down success rate.

In addition to the middling offenses, neither team operates at a blistering pace, and these defenses are more underwhelming than actively bad. As a result, I have this total at just 43.5. That'll look silly if the Jags duplicate last week's showing, but they haven't been consistent enough for me to worry too much about that.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.