3 Strikeout Props to Target for Friday 6/7/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Props to Target for Friday 6/7/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)

The Pittsburgh Pirates have totaled at least 13 strikeouts in three of their last four games, which is well above their season average of 9.66 Ks per game (third-most). The Minnesota Twins' Joe Ryan has failed to reach seven strikeouts in three of his previous four outings despite holding a 27.0% strikeout percentage (K%).

Over 6.5 strikeouts for Ryan is offering great value with -102 odds. Here's why the matchup is present for Ryan to hit this mark.

First off, Ryan has been providing high-quality starts, giving him a great chance of making a deep appearance. Since May, he has completed seven innings of work in three of six starts. His stats also check out with a 3.38 ERA, 3.10 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and 1.01 WHIP. Every one of those is on pace for a career-high.

Additionally, Pittsburgh has scored the 11th-fewest runs paired with the 4th-lowest weighted on-base average (wOBA). They are also carrying the third-highest ground ball percentage, which should help Ryan's low ground ball percentage of 35.2% (bottom 17%). A pitcher who isn't getting many groundouts is facing a team that regularly groundouts. Yet again, this spells out a deep start.

Pitching for an extended period of course helps stack strikeouts, but does Ryan have the stuff to make it happen?

The Pirates are in the bottom half of runs above average against fastballs and sliders. Meanwhile, Ryan's highest K% are carried by his four-seam fastball (31.4 K%) and sweeper (33.3 K%). Along with a quality start looming, Ryan has the right pitches to make seven strikeouts happen.

Justin Steele Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)

The Cincinnati Reds have been one of the worst teams in baseball when it coming to strikeouts; they have a 24.5 K% (sixth-highest). Tonight's opponent is a lefty -- the Chicago Cubs' Justin Steele.

Cincy's K narrative completely flips against southpaws as their K% drops to 20.5% (tied for 10th-lowest in MLB). Steele doesn't bode big-time strikeout numbers, either. He is in the 50th percentile of K%, the bottom 43% in chase percentage, and bottom 17% in whiff rate. Steele has reached six strikeouts in only three of his seven starts.

We also have a recent head-to-head matchup that provides evidence for the under. Steele pitched against the Redlegs on June 1st and totaled five strikeouts. It wasn't a very strong outing across the board as Steele walked four batters while giving up five runs in five innings.

Believe it or not, Cincinnati's plate discipline has also been solid. They are in the top half for the lowest chase rate and swinging-strike percentage. We already know Steele hasn't done well in these departments, which should only continue against the Reds.

Steele is also catching Cincy at the wrong time, for they've totaled 20 runs over their previous 2 games. This is gearing up to be another low K total for Steele.

Logan Webb to Record 6+ Strikeouts (+146)

While Logan Webb has a punchout rate of only 20.5% (bottom 38%), don't be afraid to swing for the fences with the San Francisco Giants taking on the Texas Rangers.

On the surface, Webb could look like a fickle bet. He has weak strikeout numbers for the season, and the Rangers have the sixth-lowest K% in MLB.

However, recent K production reveals Webb could fare well on Friday. He's been as consistent as it gets since May, recording at least six strikeouts in five of six appearances. Not only does over 4.5 strikeouts (-140) look like a solid bet, Webb reaching six Ks is very intriguing at +146.

We know the recent stats are there, but can he continue it against a stingy batting order? I believe the answer is yes.

Webb's most-used pitches are his sinker (36.6%) and changeup (35.8%). Texas has the seventh-fewest runs above average against sinkers and are in the bottom half of the category when facing changeups. Webb's highest K% is held by his sinker (21.2%).

FanDuel Research's projections has Webb finishing with about 5.5 Ks. Considering his recent numbers and the Rangers' struggles against his top pitches, give me Webb to reach six strikeouts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.