3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Saturday 10/6/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Alex Bregman To Record 2+ Bases (+125)

The ALDS kicks off on Saturday with the Houston Astros taking on the Minnesota Twins. The 'Stros are looking to become the first back-to-back World Series champs in the 21st century while the Twins are hoping to capitalize off of Tuesday (and Wednesday's) win, which snapped their dreary 19-game playoff losing streak.

Joe Ryan is on the bump for the Minnesota, and he will have to make vast improvements on his recent play for his team win Game 1.

In the second half of the regular season, Ryan posted a 6.09 ERA and allowed a .588 opposing batter slugging percentage and 2.63 home runs per nine innings.

The Astros possess one of the best lineups in baseball; they rank fifth in team batting average, weighted on base average, and runs scored.

Despite being favored, Houston has a tough series ahead of them, but this matchup against an unreliable Ryan is a great spot for the reigning champs to get cooking early. I have my eye on Alex Bregman to be a main offensive contributor and knock in two bases on Saturday.

Bregman has hit for 274 total bases this season (32nd in MLB). While this standing may not sound totally dominant, the Twins (who are statistically considered a top MLB offense) don't have a player that cracks the top-100 list of total bases, so Bregman is in good standing there.

Beyond the advantages that may come with a struggling Ryan on the mound, there are some solid handedness numbers we can look out to amplify the case for Bregman to grab two bases on Saturday. He posted a .289 batting average, .468 slugging percentage, and 138 wRC+ against righties this season.

These numbers were further juiced in the second half of the season; following the All-Star break, Bregman contributed a .314 batting average, .531 slugging percentage, and 167 wRC+ agaist right-handed pitchers.

With this line set at +125, I think the market is undervaluing the damage Bregman is capable of against Ryan.

Austin Riley To Hit A Home Run (+420)

The 2023 World Series trophy has been begging to be handed to the Atlanta Braves all season. They boast the league's best regular season record (104-58) and have the scariest offense in baseball -- and it's not particularly close.

Atlanta has hit a league-leading 307 home runs (the next-best team hit 249) and gloat the best batting average in baseball at .276 (next-best average is .263).

They will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS, and it's hard not to target an Atlanta Brave to hit a home run.

My pick to go yard on Saturday is Austin Riley. He will face Phils pitcher Ranger Suarez, who, luckily for Riley, is a left-handed arm.

Austin Riley is an all-around dominant hitter (37 home runs this season), but his splits against lefties are ironclad. He currently posts a .578 slugging percentage (SLG), 22.0% HR/FB ratio, 40.2% hard-hit rate, 51.5% fly-ball rate, and 143 wRC+ against southpaws.

There are four pitch types that Riley smashes the ball against. He had a .714 SLG against the curveball, and it was .632 against cutters, .593 against changeups, and .519 against four-seam fastballs.

Suarez throws these pitches a combined 96.8% of the time. His pitch type percentage breakdown is 19.0% curveball, 9.9% cutter, 18.4% changeup, and 49.5% four-seam fastball.

Suarez ranks in the top-20 of curveball percentage, and given that Riley mashes against both the curveball and left-handed pitchers, I like his chances to hit a four-bagger on Saturday.

Justin Verlander Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+104)

Playoff pitching props are a completely different beast than those of the regular season. Game plans are unique, starting pitchers posses much shorter leashes, and batters are approaching the box with the sole purpose of piecing together runs.

Circling back to the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros matchup, Justin Verlander is taking the mound for Houston, and despite the fact that the Twins hold the highest strikeout rate in baseball, I believe there is great value in the under for this prop.

There's no doubt that Verlander is a stud pitcher. A sizable case could be made that had Houston not traded for him at the deadline, we wouldn't be talking about a postseason Astros team.

However, Verlander isn't exactly the main guy you want to turn to in regards to a major punchout performance. He's only hit the over on this prop in 8 out of his 27 starts this season.

If there's one thing that the Wild Card Series taught us, it's that we can't rely on starting pitchers to deliver drawn-out, high-K outings.

Between the 16 starting pitchers who took the mound in 8 Wild Card games, only 3 of them struck out at least seven batters. Keep in mind, there were no belly itchers on the bump in these games. In fact, 14 of these 16 pitchers rank in the top 65 of strikeout percentage, and 8 of them rank in the top 30.

Verlander, meanwhile, ended the season with the league's 79th ranked strikeout percentage.

Do I think Verlander can deliver a solid outing and lead the Astros to a Game 1 win? Yes. Do the numbers show that he is primed to punch out seven-plus batters? No.

With +104 odds for the under, I think the value here is too good to ignore.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.