3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 10/16/23

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 10/16/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Prop Bets to Target

Yordan Alvarez To Record 2+ Bases (+110)

The Houston Astros will look to rebound after last night's Game 1 ALCS loss against the Texas Rangers.

Nathan Eovaldi will take the mound for Texas, and though he's been excellent in two playoff starts so far (13.2 IP, 2 ER, 15 Ks), I'm not quite ready to abandon his abysmal six-game finish to end the season (allowed a .313 AVG, .602 SLG, 3.1 HR/9) -- at least when it comes to the damage Yordan Alvarez is capable of against him.

Alvarez obliterates the ball against right-handed pitchers. He hit for a .625 SLG, 1.044 OPS, 184 wRC+, 23.8% HR/FB ratio, 48.3% hard-hit rate, and 50.2% fly-ball rate against righties this season.

In five playoff games thus far, he has recorded 21 total bases, including 4 home runs and 2 doubles.

His history against Eovaldi is brief but worth mentioning. In 11 at-bats, Alvarez has recorded eight hits (including three doubles and one home run) against the Texas pitcher. Batter versus pitcher stat breakdowns are never the main thing we want to look at, but at least it gives a bit more credence to the idea that Alvarez is primed for big numbers tonight.

The breakdown of Alvarez's FanDuel Sportsbook odds to record bases are worth checking out and are as follows: To Record 2+ Bases +110; To Record 3+ Bases +200; To Record 4+ Bases +270; To Record 5+ Bases +650.

Hitting for five bases is obviously a demanding task, but given that he's averaging 4.2 bases in the playoffs and has cleared that twice through five games, I think the juice on the +650 odds might be worth taking a look at.

Either way, getting Alvarez at plus odds on this prop is a luxury.

Bryce Harper To Hit A Home Run (+470)

The Arizona Diamondbacks will visit the Philadelphia Phillies for Game 1 of the NLCS tonight, and though Zac Gallen is on the bump for Arizona, some of the left-handed Philly bats could be primed to follow up on their NLDS hit parade.

Since the All-Star break, Gallen has allowed a .336 wOBA, .471 SLG, 1.8 HR/9, and 31.0% HR/FB ratio to left-handed hitters. Bryce Harper should see some decent chances to exploit these numbers and use the handedness matchup to his advantage.

Harper was a star of many stars for Philadelphia in the NLDS -- he knocked in six hits (including three home runs) in 11 at-bats against the Atlanta Braves.

His numbers against right-handed pitchers this season are great and include a .510 SLG, 137 wRC+, 23.5% HR/FB ratio, and 43.3% hard-hit rate. But his numbers against righties in his last 125 plate appearances are beyond compare, including a .645 SLG, 188 wRC+, 36.0% HR/FB ratio, and 50.7% hard-hit rate.

numberFire's projections anticipate the Phillies to score 3.97 runs tonight, which is somewhat low and could divert bettors from siding with offensive studs. However, the low-ish total has way more to do with Gallen's excellence against righties (.276 wOBA and 26.2% strikeout percentage) than it does Harper's abilities to mash against him.

With Harper's hot streak in mind, as well as his effectiveness against righties, I would also look out for Harper To Record 2+ Bases at +130 -- the value on the plus odds here is too good to ignore.

Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)

We've seen 19 games come and go without a starting pitcher striking out six or more Diamondback batters, so asking Zack Wheeler to punch out seven tonight is a tall order.

I should preface this by saying that Wheeler has been total nails in the playoffs -- both this postseason (13.0 IP and 18 Ks) and last postseason (35.2 IP and 33 Ks).

However, siding with the under here does not necessarily mean going against the grain of a solid Wheeler start. Even though Wheeler has been dealing, I'm not quite sure the trend is his friend tonight, at least as Ks are concerned.

Arizona hardly strikes out. They posted a 20.4% strikeout rate this season (27th) and, as mentioned, have not been victim to a high-punchout game (six or more Ks) in over a month.

Wheeler started two games against the Diamondbacks this season -- his stat line included 12 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, and 10 Ks. These numbers are solid, but the high punch-out history isn't exactly there, at least at this line.

Though the Rangers and the Phillies have been the flashier offenses this postseason, the Diamondbacks have scored the most runs per plate appearance (0.15 runs/PA) and will be a force to be reckoned with in the NLCS.

Wheeler boasts a 32.6% strikeout rate versus righties, but this number falls to 21.8% against lefties. The projected Arizona lineup touts four lefties in a sequence of five batters (7th spot through 2nd spot), so I'd look for this to be an area where Wheeler struggles.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.