3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 7/3/24

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 7/3/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

New York Mets at Washington Nationals

New York Mets Over 4.5 Total Runs (-115)

The New York Mets have transformed into one of the hottest teams in baseball recently -- and some would say Grimace is a large reason why. In the first two games of a four-game series versus the Washington Nationals, the Mets have scored seven-plus runs in both contests, giving them five-plus runs in eight consecutive games.

On Wednesday, Washington is expected to have Mitchell Parker make his 15th start of the season. Across 14 starts, Parker is in the 48th percentile in xERA (3.95), 32nd percentile in strikeout rate (19.6%), 43rd percentile in barrel rate (7.9%), and 42nd percentile in hard-hit rate (39.7%).

Along with Parker permitting multiple earned runs in 10 of his 14 outings, the bullpen of the Nationals is registering the 11th-worst HR/9 (1.01) and the 2nd-worst hard-hit rate (41.4%).

To make matters even worse for Parker and the Nats, the Mets are raking against lefties in 2024. New York is logging the fourth-best wOBA (.339), second-best wRC+ (125), and fourth-best ISO (.180) versus southpaws.

It should be noted that the Nationals have started a lefty in each of the first five meetings against the Mets this year, and New York has tallied six-plus runs in all five matchups.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

Philadelphia Phillies ML (-126)

Not having Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber available is far from ideal for the Philadelphia Phillies. That being said, the Phillies have gone 3-1 since Harper and Schwarber were sidelined.

Ahead of Wednesday's showdown between the Phillies and Chicago Cubs, Philly has a pitching advantage with Zack Wheeler making his 18th start of the campaign. After finishing sixth in the NL Cy Young voting a season ago with a 3.53 SIERA and 3.54 xFIP, Wheeler is performing even better in 2024 with a 3.49 SIERA and 3.47 xFIP.

Despite Shota Imanaga drawing another start for the Cubs, the talented southpaw has been struggling in recent starts. Imanaga has given up a combined 24 earned runs in his last six outings while pitching five-plus innings just three times in that span.

Additionally, the Phillies have excelled versus left-handed pitching, and the Cubs' bullpen has been inconsistent. Philadelphia is sporting the sixth-best wOBA (.335), seventh-best wRC+ (117), and ninth-best ISO (.164) against left-handed pitchers. Chicago's bullpen is posting the sixth-worst WHIP (1.36), ninth-worst fly-ball rate (38.2%), and third-worst barrel rate (9.0%).

Meanwhile, Wheeler has permitted two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. Following an 0-3 starts through his first four starts this season, Wheeler has logged a 9-1 record in his last 13 appearances.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+125)

The Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins will be trotting out inexperienced pitchers for Wednesday's AL Central bout. While Keider Montero will be making just his second start in the majors for the Tigers, David Festa is projected to do the same for the Twins.

With uncertainty surrounding both starters, we'll turn our attention to the better overall team in this contest. The Twins have accrued the 10th-best wOBA (.317), 9th-best wRC+ (106), and 5th-best ISO (.173) versus right-handed pitching.

Minnesota is also in fantastic form with the sixth-best wOBA (.346), fifth-best wRC+ (126), fifth-best ISO (.197), and second-lowest strikeout rate (17.3%) in the last 14 days. Over that same 14-day span, Detroit is tallying the third-worst wOBA (.263), second-worst wRC+ (68), and fifth-worst ISO (.135).

Amid a 7-2 record in their last nine games, the Twins have beaten their opponent by multiple runs in all seven of those victories. That includes Tuesday's 5-3 win over the Tigers despite Tarik Skubal -- who is tied for the shortest odds to win AL Cy Young (+210) -- drawing the start for Detroit.

Even though the Twins' 39-46 record against the spread (ATS) isn't great, the Tigers have been even worse with a 37-48 record ATS. On top of that, Minnesota is 25-21 on the road while Detroit is 19-23 at home this year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.