MLB

MLB Best Bets for Thursday 6/20/24

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas
MLB Best Bets for Thursday 6/20/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, 1:11 p.m. ET

Seattle Moneyline (-112)

The pitching matchup favors the Seattle Mariners, and numberFire's model sees value on the Mariners' moneyline at -112 odds.

Luis Castillo is throwing for Seattle. He's been excellent again in 2024, posting a 3.59 SIERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging-strike rate. He's been especially lights out in June, holding hitters to a staggering .256 wOBA across 18 innings.

Logan Allen is getting the ball for the Cleveland Guardians. Allen flashed some solid skills as a rookie, and while he's mostly been decent this campaign, Allen's K rate has fallen to 18.8%. Righties are mauling him to the tune of a .395 wOBA and 1.89 homers per nine innings. That should spell trouble against a Seattle lineup that may feature up to eight right-handed bats.

It doesn't feel great to back what's been an underwhelming Mariners offense. However, they've picked it up of late and have a respectable .316 wOBA (14th-best) over the past two weeks.

numberFire's model gives Seattle 56.8% win odds. That comes out to a -131 moneyline. These -112 odds are well short of that.

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, 9:41 p.m. ET

Milwaukee Moneyline (-108)

The final game of the day is a West Coast clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres. This one is listed as a true pick'em, with both sides carrying -108 odds to win, but I think there are a few reasons to like Milwaukee.

For one, the Brewers are the better team. Milwaukee is 44-30 with a +66 run differential, compared to San Diego sitting at 38-40 with a +11 run differential.

The Brewers also have a rest/travel advantage. Milwaukee played last night in Anaheim, so they had a short trip to San Diego. The Padres, meanwhile, had a day game in Philly and had to fly all the way across the country to get back to So Cal.

Lastly, the pitching matchup leans the Brewers' way, too.

I'm not a big fan of Bryse Wilson, but he's better than Adam Mazur. Wilson owns a 4.43 SIERA and has held the opposition to three or fewer earned runs in nine of his last 10 appearances. Mazur, a rookie, has struggled in his first 12 1/3 MLB frames, pitching to a 7.28 SIERA. He had a meh 4.77 xFIP at Triple-A before his promotion, and he gets a rough draw versus a Milwaukee offense that is sixth in wOBA (.322).

The -108 moneyline odds imply a win probability of 51.9%. numberFire's projections give Milwaukee a 52.1% chance to win. It's not much, but there's some value in backing the Brew Crew.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.