MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 6/3/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 6/3/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Tigers Moneyline (-116)

The Detroit Tigers (29-30) will arrive in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex after splitting four games in Boston. Starting Monday, Detroit next has three contests at the Texas Rangers (29-30).

For the probable pitchers at Globe Life Field, Nathan Eovaldi and southpaw Tarik Skubal are scheduled first. Both hurlers have enjoyed success in 2024, but Skubal has been particularly dominant. The lefty owns a career-best 2.58 skill-interactive ERA right now behind 10.75 K/9.

I can respect the 13-year veteran Eovaldi (3.79 SIERA), but I believe the Tigers are in a more favorable spot for a win on Monday. With that, I am targeting Detroit's moneyline labeled at -116 odds.

Ironically, these American League sides have the exact same record at this point. However, the Tigers have won 8 times throughout Skubal's 11 starts this season. Knowing that Texas has been a little weaker versus left-handed pitching (carrying a .655 OPS in the split) this year, I am confident in Detroit.

St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET

Over 8.0 Runs (-110)

For an interleague meeting in H-Town, the St. Louis Cardinals (28-29) are visiting the Houston Astros (26-34). Both sides have gotten off to slow starts in 2024, but in this current moment, I see value on over 8.0 runs (-110 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook).

Monday's projected starters at Minute Maid Park are Kyle Gibson and future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander. Gibson has been so-so in his first season with St. Louis, posting a 4.39 FIP. Verlander (4.35 SIERA) is still fresh off shoulder rehab, as he's thrown just 47 innings this year.

Despite Houston's mediocre record, they've been a solid hitting team in 2024. The 'Stros own a .736 OPS. In games played at home, the club has produced 4.75 runs per game.

Admittedly, the Cardinals have labored in the batter's box this season. St. Louis' annual scoring clip shows only 3.88 runs per game, but they have improved over the past couple weeks. Since May 12th, the Red Birds are at 4.94 runs per game.

numberFire offers support for over 8.0 runs on Monday. Per their game projections, Houston is estimated to win by a score of 5.22-4.28. Incidentally, numberFire gives the over a 58.38% winning likelihood for this contest.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 Runs (-105)

Down in Southern California, we'll see an interleague battle between neighboring counties. The San Diego Padres (32-30) will make the 100-mile trip to Anaheim where the Los Angeles Angels (21-38) await.

On the mound, the game will feature Matt Waldron and lefty Tyler Anderson. Waldron (1.37 WHIP) has been respectable for San Diego in 2024. Across the way, Anderson (4.99 xFIP) has not been the most efficient; his 3.76 BB/9 is poor for an MLB starter.

The Padres will arrive at Angel Stadium after scoring 21 total runs over three games versus the Kansas City Royals. Fortunately for the Friars, they are entering another hitter-friendly park; the MLB venue in Orange County is tagged with the seventh-highest Park Factor score (101) over the past three campaigns.

Considering how well San Diego has been swinging as of late, I think there is enough here to warrant over 8.5 runs (-105 odds) tonight. Also, it's not as if the Halos are the worst-hitting team in baseball. Despite having won only 21 games to this point, Los Angeles' A.L. franchise has a .691 team OPS (17th). From there, the Angels are producing 4.12 runs per game entering Monday.

Back at numberFire, the MLB game projections have value on over 8.5 runs in Anaheim. The -105 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook indicate a 51.2% implied probability. Comparatively, numberFire's model gives a 59.85% winning likelihood for over bettors here.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.