3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 6/10/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 Runs (-112)

To start the week, the New York Yankees (46-21) will leave the Big Apple for a series with the Kansas City Royals (39-27) at Kauffman Stadium. With the way these two sides have performed in 2024, we could very well be looking at a potential playoff matchup here.

The projected starters at "The K" on Monday are Seth Lugo and lefty Carlos Rodon. Both have been strong this season; Lugo owns a 3.92 xFIP while Rodon has improved for his second year in pinstripes, showing a 3.88 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Still, given the venue and lineups on hand, I like over 8.5 runs (-112 odds).

For starters, we know both ball clubs can swing it. In terms of team OPS, the Yankees (.772) rank first in MLB. From there, Kansas City (.730) is quite respectable at seventh overall in that same metric. Additionally, these sides are each within baseball's top five in terms of scoring. New York has plated 4.94 runs per game whereas K.C. is producing 4.98 runs per game.

Notably, Kauffman Stadium is regarded as a hitter's venue, carrying the third-highest Park Factor score (105) of all MLB ballparks. Considering there is a good likelihood that Juan Soto (forearm) will play this evening, both offenses could be at full strength. With temperatures expected in the 70s around first pitch, I am preparing to see nine or more total runs in KCMO.

The game prediction model at numberFire is also in support of the over for Yankees-Royals tonight. The Yanks are predicted to defeat the Crowns by a score of 4.86-4.74 (with extra innings quite plausible), resulting in a 59.21% winning likelihood for over bettors.

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

Mariners -1.5 (+102)

In the Pacific Northwest, the Chicago White Sox (17-49) are visiting the Seattle Mariners (37-30) on Monday. Transparently, these American League franchises are currently on opposite ends of their respective divisions. Seattle is pacing the AL West while Chicago has the worst record in the Majors.

This series opener at T-Mobile Park will feature right-handed starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Erick Fedde. Gilbert has been strong once again for the M's, posting a 3.64 FIP entering tonight's bid. Across the way, Fedde is enjoying respectable numbers of his own, boasting a 1.18 WHIP.

With a quality pitcher's duel on the horizon, I am willing to play Mariners on the run line. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Seattle with lucrative +102 odds in this market. Being that the ChiSox are struggling in historic fashion, I find it worthwhile to challenge them on the road.

The Southsiders have won just five games outright when playing away from Chicago in 2024. Simply, a figure that staggering cannot be ignored. From there, the Sox are the lowest-scoring team in MLB -- churning out only 3.08 runs per game -- by a wide margin; I just don't see the White Sox getting to Gilbert on Monday evening.

numberFire's MLB power rankings have these clubs spaced far apart. There, the Mariners (1.00 nERD) are presently viewed as the sixth-best team in baseball. Naturally, the White Sox (-1.71 nERD) show up 29th of 30 clubs. With that, I like Seattle to win by two or more runs in the Emerald City.

Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants, 9:45 p.m. ET

Giants Moneyline (-102)

For an intriguing interleague clash, the Houston Astros (30-36) will head west to take on the San Francisco Giants (32-34). In the current campaign, both sides here have produced mixed results. So, what should we expect on a cold, windy night by San Francisco Bay?

The probable pitchers at Oracle Park this evening are Spencer Arrighetti and lefty Kyle Harrison. Arrighetti is currently sporting an unflattering 5.79 ERA. Conversely, Harrison has a 4.06 SIERA.

FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Giants as home underdogs in this bid. San Francisco is tagged with -102 odds to win outright, which yields a 50.5% implied probability. However, over at ESPN Analytics, the Giants' winning likelihood is up at 56.6%.

San Francisco outfielder Heliot Ramos has been scorching as of late. Over his past six games, Ramos has compiled a 1.476 OPS (.571 OBP) in addition to three home runs. Knowing that Arrighetti has been more vulnerable in same-handed matchups (.801 OPS vs. RHB) this year, I like Ramos to perpetuate the scoring for S.F.

Oracle Park is a renowned pitcher's venue, posting the fourth-lowest Park Factor score (96) in the Majors. From there, Monday evening's weather in "Fog City" will not favor the team that leans more on their offense, which is Houston.

The Giants are boasting a 3.70 team SIERA right now whereas the Astros show 4.09 in that same metric. In the bullpen, San Francisco has earned a 2.89 K/BB ratio. As for H-Town, their 'pen has been less efficient at 2.37 K/BB.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg Same Game Parlay for any MLB game happening June 10th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.