MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 6/5/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Adley Rutschman To Hit a Home Run (+520)

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. That's the motto today as we go back to another hitter from the Baltimore Orioles.

After cashing two +520 home run props yesterday, let's keep things rolling with Adley Rutschman and the Orioles, who come in with a 4.08 implied run total against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Jays will have Jose Berrios on the bump tonight, a pitcher we can target for some long balls. This season, Berrios has allowed a .350 SLG, 1.50 HR/9, 46.6% fly-ball rate, and 33.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.

We turn to Rutschman, who comes in with an 84 wRC+, .115 ISO, 44.4% fly-ball rate, and 34.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. While the wRC+ and ISO are a bit lower than I'd normally like to see, Rutschman has hit 5 of his 10 home runs against righty pitchers this season.

The high fly-ball rate will always put Rutschman in a good spot to knock one over the wall. I'll add Rutschman To Record an RBI (+185), too.

Ryan Jeffers To Hit a Home Run (+420)

With immense power, Ryan Jeffers is primed for a long ball tonight.

The Minnesota Twins are set to face Carlos Rodon of the New York Yankees, a pitcher who still struggles with fly balls. To this point in the season, Rodon has allowed a .423 SLG, .319 wOBA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.47 HR/9, 51.9% fly-ball rate, and 10.8% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed hitters.

This has led to Rodon allowing nine homers to righty hitters in his 12 starts.

This brings me to Jeffers, who is crushing lefties this year with a 133 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .288 ISO, 45.0% fly-ball rate, 32.5% hard-contact rate, and 22.2% HR/FB ratio. He's got power for days and should be able to put that on display tonight.

I'll add Jeffers To Record an RBI (+180), too.

Cal Raleigh To Hit a Home Run (+330)

With a favorable matchup, the Seattle Mariners could get the ball flying tonight.

Seattle will be up against the Oakland Athletics, who will send Joey Estes to the mound tonight. Estes has only 20.2 innings pitched this season, so we'll look at his entire career sample size between this year and last year.

During that time, Estes has allowed a .653 SLG, .422 wOBA, 5.53 xFIP, 3.65 HR/9, 55.6% fly-ball rate, and 41.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting on the mound and it puts a few hitters in a great spot tonight.

We'll look to Cal Raleigh, who has a 102 wRC+, .305 wOBA, .163 ISO, 44.2% fly-ball rate, 47.7% hard-contact rate, and 15.8% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. The fly ball rates line up nicely for Raleigh, so I'll add Raleigh To Record an RBI (+110), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.