MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Dinger Tuesday 6/4/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Tuesday's during the MLB season mean one thing -- Dinger Tuesday! Place a pre-live, straight "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game happening on June 4th. You’ll get Bonus Bets for each home run BOTH TEAMS hit in the game! See the promotions page for more information.

Home Run Props

Ryan Mountcastle To Hit a Home Run (+520)

The Baltimore Orioles have a ton of power in their lineup and are always a team to consider for some home run props.

With 88 home runs, the Orioles have the second-most in the MLB and bring several players who can knock the ball over the wall on a nightly basis.

Tonight, we turn to Ryan Mountcastle, who has legit power versus right-handed pitchers this season with a 117 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .188 ISO, 43.5% fly-ball rate, and 37.4% hard-contact rate. This has led to him hitting five of his eight home runs off of righties, making it a solid split to target.

He's likely to be facing Bowden Francis, who is expected to be the long reliever after Trevor Richards pitches as the opener. Since Francis has a smaller sample size, we'll look at his entire MLB career of 51.2 innings pitched.

Over that time, Francis has allowed a .433 SLG, 1.73 HR/9, 43.5% fly-ball rate, and 39.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. It's a great matchup across the board so I'll add, Mountcastle To Record an RBI (+115), too.

Christian Walker To Hit a Home Run (+420)

With a ton of power, Christian Walker is always a threat for a homer.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are rocking a 4.82 implied run total so it makes sense to target them for some offensive player props tonight.

Walker will be up against Kyle Harrison, who has some serious issues with fly balls, thus making him a good pitcher to target. This year, Harrison has allowed a 4.91 xFIP, 1.26 HR/9, .465 SLG, 48.4% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

That type of fly ball rate will always be a dangerous thing for pitchers and Walker should be able to jump on that. Walker comes in with a 125 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .169 ISO, 47.7% fly-ball rate, and 36.4% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

Those are some juicy fly-ball rates to see, so I'll add Walker To Record an RBI (+130), too.

Riley Greene To Hit a Home Run (+520)

Finally, we'll turn to the Detroit Tigers against the Texas Rangers.

The Rangers will have Dane Dunning on the mound tonight, a pitcher with some clear flaws to target. While Dunning has a 29.5% strikeout rate versus lefties, he also allows a .440 SLG, 2.21 HR/9, 39.6% fly-ball rate, and 44.9% hard-contact rate.

That's a dangerous mix to have on the mound when there are power hitters on the other side, such as Riley Greene tonight.

Greene comes in with a big 146 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .216 ISO, 33.0% fly-ball rate, and 21.1% HR/FB ratio versus righties this season. This has led to him hitting eight homers in this split, so we're targeting the right area.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.