MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 6/3/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Kyle Tucker To Hit a Home Run (+450)

The Houston Astros are rocking a 4.71 implied run total, so it's time to turn to one of the best home run hitters in the league.

That hitter would be Kyle Tucker, who comes in with 19 home runs, which is good for the second-most in the MLB this season. He has power in all types of matchups and should be able to put that on display tonight against Kyle Gibson.

Gibson comes in allowing a .485 SLG, .342 wOBA, 4.88 xFIP, 1.53 HR/9, 42.3% fly-ball rate, and 35.2% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. It's essentially the ideal profile of a pitcher we target for homers, putting Tucker in a great spot.

Tucker comes in with a 199 wRC+, .452 wOBA, .356 ISO, 53.2% fly-ball rate, and 40.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. It's a mouth-watering set of stats and that's why we've seen 14 of his 19 home runs come via righty pitchers.

It sets up for a bit of Kyle-on-Kyle action, resulting in a Tucker home run. I'll add Tucker to Record an RBI (+160), too.

Jurickson Profar To Hit a Home Run (+520)

Next up is a good matchup for the San Diego Padres against Tyler Anderson of the Los Angeles Angels.

Anderson isn't a pitcher we need to worry about with his 5.00 xFIP, .335 SLG, and 47.6% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. It has to be noted that he is only allowing 0.73 HR/9 in this split which is very interesting.

The league averages this season versus right-handed hitters is a 37.5% fly-ball rate and 1.01 HR/9. Meanwhile, Anderson allows more fly-balls than the average while somehow allowing fewer HR/9. Anderson is due for regression to the league average, making him a pitcher worth targeting moving forward.

We turn to Jurickson Profar, who is rocking a 174 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .203 ISO, 33.3% hard-contact rate, and 25.0% HR/FB ratio versus lefty pitchers this season.

Profar has been great versus lefties this season, so I'll add Profar to Record an RBI (+170), too.

Elly De La Cruz To Hit a Home Run (+470)

A game at Coors Field is always a spot to look for some home run props.

While we always look here for home runs, it's not always the case that we find great value in terms of the home run odds. When we have viable odds, we should jump at the chance, as we see tonight with Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds.

He comes in with a strong 120 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .236 ISO, 37.3% fly-ball rate, 41.0% hard-contact rate, and 25.8% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. Those stats have helped him hit eight of his nine homers in this split, making it the spot to target tonight.

He'll be up against Ryan Feltner, who has allowed a .504 SLG, .370 wOBA, 4.11 xFIP, 1.48 HR/9, 39.4% fly-ball rate, and 38.6% hard-contact rate versus lefty hitters this season.

It's an ideal matchup to target for the long ball, so I'll add De La Cruz to Record an RBI (+110), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.