MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 6/21/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Christian Walker To Hit a Home Run (+320)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a solid 4.45 implied run total against the Philadelphia Phillies, where we could see the ball flying on both sides tonight.

With mediocre starting pitching on both sides, the offense should be front and center tonight, bringing us to a home run prop.

The Phillies will send Taijuan Walker to the mound, which should bring a smile to our face knowing the potential the opposing offense has tonight.

This season, Walker has allowed a .364 SLG, 1.14 HR/9, 4.17 xFIP, 43.9% fly-ball rate, and 37.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

This leads me to Christian Walker, who is scorching hot at the plate right now and has the 12th-highest xwOBA increase in the MLB over his last 50 plate appearances.

On the entire season, he comes in with a 136 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .254 ISO, 48.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

This is why we've seen him hit 14 of his 17 home runs against righties, making this the ideal split to target.

Of course, I'll add, Walker to Record an RBI (+110), too.

Austin Riley To Hit a Home Run (+330)

After missing some time with a rib injury, Austin Riley is back and looking strong at the plate.

Between a bit of a slow start to the season and some time on the Injured List, things didn't get off to the best start for Riley's 2024 season.

However, since he's been back, he's looking like the hitter who posted at least 33 home runs in each of the last three seasons. This is shown by his recent Statcast data where he has a whopping 12 batted balls over 100 mph exit velocity in just his last 10 games.

He's blistering the ball right now and is set to take on Carlos Rodon, who struggles big time with fly balls.

This year, Rodon has allowed a 51.0% fly-ball rate, 1.28 HR/9, 4.44 xFIP, and .405 SLG to right-handed hitters. That has led to 10 of the 11 home runs he's allowed coming in this split.

I'll add, Riley To Record an RBI (+150), too.

Tyler Soderstrom To Hit a Home Run (+560)

Finally, we head out west for a bit of a longer-shot home run call tonight.

Tyler Soderstrom of the Oakland Athletics has caught my eye in recent weeks and there are a few things to note with him.

He's only played in 34 games this season so he doesn't have a large sample size and doesn't have enough plate appearances to qualify among the league leaders, but his underlying metrics look fantastic.

High average exit velocity? Check. High xSLG? Check. High barrel rate and hard-hit rate? Check and check.

This has led to a 125 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .209 ISO, 46.2% hard-contact rate, 36.5% fly-ball rate, and 26.3% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers.

Yes, it's a smaller sample size but that can work in most matchups and should be able to shine against Chris Paddack.

This year, Paddack has allowed a .465 SLG, .348 wOBA, 4.46 xFIP, 1.70 HR/9, 44.1% fly-ball rate, and 32.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.

It's essentially the perfect matchup for Soderstrom to keep his strong start going.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.