3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 5/10/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Christian Yelich To Hit a Home Run (+540)

The Milwaukee Brewers are rocking a 4.47 implied run total against the St. Louis Cardinals and could see the ball flying tonight.

The Cards will have Lance Lynn on the mound tonight, a pitcher we love to target for home runs. Last season, Lynn allowed a .549 SLG, .384 wOBA, 2.49 HR/9, 5.16 xFIP, 45.1% fly-ball rate, and 32.1% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Those are some juicy numbers to see when we are looking for a home run prop and it brings me to Christian Yelich.

Yelich recently returned from the Injured List and looks solid with five batted balls with an exit velocity of 94 mph or higher in his first two games. Last season, he crushed righties with a 139 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .195 ISO, 43.9% hard-contact rate, and 21.6% HR/FB ratio.

The power is there in this matchup, so I'll add Yelich To Record an RBI (+140), too.

Salvador Perez To Hit a Home Run (+400)

Next up, we turn to Salvador Perez, who is having a great season at the plate.

The Kansas City Royals' veteran is getting it done with power this season and has a great matchup tonight to show that off.

He will be up against Griffin Canning, who got blasted by righty hitters last season to the tune of a .508 SLG, .350 wOBA, 2.25 HR/9, 38.1% fly-ball rate, and 42.5% hard-contact rate. Oh, baby, we love to see those types of numbers for a pitcher.

We turn to Perez, who is crushing righties this season with a 161 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .250 ISO, 47.1% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate. All of that has led to Perez hitting seven of his eight home runs against righties this year.

With that said, I'll add Perez To Record an RBI (+125), too.

Jonah Heim To Hit a Home Run (+470)

Finally, a home run prop at Coors Field is always worth considering.

We all know how good Coors Field can be for home runs, so it's natural to look for a prop whenever the Colorado Rockies are at home. Tonight, they host the Texas Rangers, who have a slate-high 5.34 implied run total.

The Rockies will send out Austin Gomber, who got hit hard by righties last year with a .476 SLG, .347 wOBA, 5.01 xFIP, 1.54 HR/9, 38.4% fly-ball rate, and 39.4% hard-contact rate.

We keep things simple and go to Jonah Heim, who had a 134 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .157 ISO, 44.3% fly-ball rate, and 41.4% hard-contact rate versus southpaws last season.

Fly balls are great at Coors Field and we should see a few go over the fence tonight. I'll add Heim To Record an RBI (+115), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.