MLB

3 FanDuel MLB DFS Value Plays for Thursday 6/6/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Betting lines via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting odds as well as our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- may change after this article is published.

MLB DFS Value Plays

Walker Buehler, P, Dodgers ($8,300)

This seven-game slate doesn't lend itself to much value on the bump, but I can get behind Walker Buehler at $8.3K in a road date with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Through five starts, Buehler has a 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He's yet to allow more than three runs in any outing and has racked up a pair of quality starts as a result. In those two quality starts, Buehler netted 49 and 34 FanDuel points.

Buehler racked up seven strikeouts in both of those strong outings, and that's where his fantasy upside lies. His K rate (22.9%) is actually up relative to the last time we saw him pitch in 2022, while his 20% called strike rate would currently rank fourth among qualified starters.

The ERA indicators -- 4.07 xERA, 3.71 xFIP, and 3.75 SIERA -- suggest Buehler has underperformed a bit relative to expectation, and the batted-ball metrics back that up. He's limited opposing hitters to a 35.7% fly-ball rate, 5.6% barrel rate, and 31.9% hard-hit rate. Consequently, his .303 BABIP and 2.16 HR/9 should both come down as we get deeper into the season.

There aren't many opponents better for an underperforming righty to stabilize against than the Pirates. Against righties, Pittsburgh has the second-lowest wOBA (.281), the lowest ISO (.114), and the third-lowest wRC+ (80). They've struck out at the fifth-highest clip (24.7%) and generated the fourth-highest groundball rate (45.2%) in the split.

If Buehler can make it through five innings -- something he's done in three straight starts -- than he'll be in a strong spot to pick a win, too. The Los Angeles Dodgers are -196 moneyline favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook. While Buehler's strikeout prop is down at 4.5, he has +110 odds to record over 17.5 outs, so he can push for the quality-start points, too.

While there are a few aces with strong matchups, Buehler presents a low-salary way to flirt with serious upside on a smaller slate.

Andy Pages, OF, Dodgers ($2,900)

Let's stick with the Dodgers and target their slate-leading 5.12 implied total.

With Bailey Falter hurling for Pittsburgh, there's plenty of value in the bottom half of LA's lineup.

Despite his 3.22 ERA, Falter isn't someone who should scare us off the Dodgers. He's been propped up by a miniscule .195 BABIP, but his ERA indicators see through the smoke. The lefty's 4.73 xERA, 4.72 xFIP, and 4.87 SIERA are all more indicative of the quality of arm we're dealing with.

Considering Falter has given up a 9.3% barrel rate, 42.8% hard-hit rate, and 47.9% fly-ball rate while punching out just 15.3% of opposing hitters, it's a wonder he's been this effective so far. I'd expect that to change after tonight.

Andy Pages should be a big reason for that. The Dodgers' rookie has cooled off after a blazing-hot start to his MLB career, but he continues to mash against southpaws. In that split, the right-handed Pages owns a .368 wOBA and .853 OPS. In 41 plate appearances against lefties, he's scored eight runs and driven in another four.

The last time LA faced a lefty, they bumped Pages up to fifth in the order. If he's there again today, that would help him rack up counting stats and put him in a nice spot to outperform his salary on FanDuel.

Pages has +105 odds to record a run and +140 odds to record an RBI tonight.

Jake Fraley, OF, Reds ($2,800)

The wheels are beginning to come off for Javier Assad.

Although the Chicago Cubs' righty still owns a stellar 2.27 ERA, he's let up eight earned runs across his last 15 innings. A stellar BABIP (.254) and strand rate (85.8%) have helped Assad keep things under wrap thus far, but his ERA indicators -- 3.72 xERA, 4.02 xFIP, and 4.11 SIERA -- suggest more damage could be on the way.

Considering his velocity is down but his walk, contact, and fly-ball rates are all up from last season, Assad is someone I am looking to target for a potential blow-up. With the wind blowing out at Great American Ball Park, the Cincinnati Reds could do just that today.

Jake Fraley is my pick of the litter. The lefty has racked up a hit in nine of his last 10 games, raising his average to .288 for the year. He's scored six runs and picked up a pair of RBI over that stretch, serving as the Cincinnati Reds' No. 5 hitter against righties.

That's a split Fraley has excelled in throughout his career. Across six seasons, Fraley has a .343 wOBA and .791 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Those marks bump to .357 and .829 against righties at home -- Statcast's top venue for left-handed power. Last season, all 15 of his home runs came against righties, with nine coming at home.

Fraley has +630 odds to hit a home run, +145 odds to record 2+ total bases, and +100 odds to record a run tonight.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.