3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 6/11/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

First Five Innings Over 5.5 Runs (-118)

Getting to six runs in five frames a tall task, but we've got two meh pitchers going against offenses with plenty of home-run power.

Justin Wrobleski is listed as the expected starter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he's just not that good. He's pitched to a 4.89 SIERA and 17.9% K rate over 51 1/3 innings. In 40 2/3 frames at Triple-A this year, he struggled to a 5.44 SIERA. Facing Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and company probably won't go well for him.

On the other side, the San Diego Padres are giving the ball to Randy Vasquez, who owns a 5.68 SIERA and 13.4% strikeout rate this season through 61 1/3 innings. It's hard to see him having much success versus the Dodgers' high-powered lineup.

Both offenses can bring the noise early and push this contest over 5.5 runs in the first five innings in this day game (4:11 p.m. ET).

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

Under 10.0 Runs (-105)

My favorite bet of the day is under 10.0 runs in tonight's Coors matchup between Robbie Ray and Kyle Freeland.

Freeland has been surprisingly good thus far in 2025, recording career-best marks in both SIERA (3.96) and swinging-strike rate (10.5%) while allowing a meager 29.2% fly-ball rate. Missing a decent amount of bats and keeping the ball on the ground has helped him limit dingers to 1.05 per nine innings at home this year. Facing a San Francisco Giants offense that ranks ninth-worst in wOBA against LHP (.283), Freeland can do his part to help the under cash -- especially with Giants lefty killer Matt Chapman on the IL.

Ray should excel, too. He's got a 3.56 SIERA, 28.4% K rate and 13.8% swinging-strike rate this campaign. He's seen the Colorado Rockies once this year and rolled them to the tune of eight Ks over seven shutout innings -- albeit that game was in San Fran. Colorado is 27th in wOBA (.268) against southpaws with the second-highest strikeout rate (27.9%) in the split, so they're a lovely matchup, even at Coors.

It's fair to be worried about the Colorado relievers, a group that sits 25th in bullpen xFIP (4.33). We saw this play out last night as the Giants had two runs through eight innings before pushing across four runs in the ninth. If you prefer to stay away from the Rockies' relievers, you can take under 5.5 runs in the first five innings at -120 odds.

New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals

Royals -1.5 (+200)

I'm going to swing for the fence and take the underdog Kansas City Royals to win by multiple runs against the New York Yankees.

A huge factor for me is Kris Bubic, who I think can thrive despite the difficult matchup.

Bubic's return to the rotation has been a smashing success. He's registered a 3.35 SIERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 14.6% swinging-strike rate. He's been incredible. Heck, he's got the sixth-shortest AL Cy Young odds (+2500). A date with the Yankees is obviously a tough matchup, but he just fanned nine over seven innings of one-run ball last time out against a quality Detroit Tigers offense.

But it's not all on Bubic as the KC offense can find some joy against Clarke Schmidt. The Yankees' righty is a solid hurler, amassing a 4.03 SIERA over 49 innings this season, but he gives up a lot of fly-balls (42.4% fly-ball rate). He's also been much worse on the road -- allowing a .349 wOBA and 1.74 homers per nine -- than he's been at home (.283 and 0.64, respectively).

With a top-notch pitcher going, Kansas City can ride Bubic's arm and hopefully drill a long-ball or two en route to a multi-run victory.

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.