2026 FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile odds and picks: can Notable Speech repeat?

Key takeaways

• Defending champion Notable Speech is the 7-5 morning-line favorite from post 8 and is trying to become the first repeat winner of the race since Wise Dan in 2012-13.
• Trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey William Buick have won four of the last five editions, including Modern Games at Keeneland in 2022.
• The early speed of Rhetorical, Deterministic, and Cabo Spirit should set up the closers. Twelve of the last 15 winners were outside the top three after the opening quarter-mile.
• Our pick is Notable Speech on top, with Formidable Man, last year's runner-up at 15-1, as the value play underneath.

Defending champion Notable Speech is the 7-5 morning-line favorite in the $2 million FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented by PDJF (G1), scheduled for 4:20 PM ET on Saturday, October 31st at Keeneland. FanDuel has been the race's title sponsor since 2020; PDJF is the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund.

The 14-horse international field also includes two wide-drawn Aidan O'Brien runners and Rhetorical, a Keeneland course specialist who likes to lead. Here are the post positions, morning-line odds, trends and our picks.

Naturally, you can bet which horses will win their Breeders’ Cup races at FanDuel Racing. Also, discover 2026 Breeders’ Cup odds and bet the Breeders’ Cup with exclusive bonuses and promos.

Breeders' Cup Mile race info

• Date: Saturday, October 31st, 2026
• Post time: 4:20 PM ET
• Track: Keeneland, Lexington, Ky.
• Distance and surface: 1 mile, turf
• Purse: $2,000,000
• Grade: 1, for 3-year-olds and up

Race times are subject to change.

Breeders' Cup Mile post positions and odds

This is updated as of Wednesday, October 28th. See the full Breeders' Cup Mile entries, post positions and morning-line odds.

Also-eligible: Vina Arana (Jack Sisterson / Adam Beschizza, 30-1) draws in only if there is a scratch.

Notable Speech: the horse to beat

Notable Speech has turned the Breeders' Cup Mile into an annual appointment. The Godolphin homebred by Dubawi was third in this race in 2024, then came back at Del Mar last year to win by 1 ½ lengths at 13-5 over Formidable Man, who is back again this year. Appleby summed him up afterward: "He's got that electric turn of foot."

His 2026 campaign has had its ups and downs, but the high points have been very high:

The Woodbine Mile (G1) was a Win and You're In race, and it was a performance to remember: Buick found an opening on the turn for home and he quickened past the pacesetting Deterministic in 1:33.86. "He's a tough horse," assistant trainer Alex Merriam said. "He has such a turn of foot." He's now 10-for-19 with more than $4.4 million in earnings.

The one blemish worth thinking about is that Keeneland loss in April. His only start over this course came off a long layoff, and Zulu Kingdom got loose on the lead. This time he's fit, battle-tested and drawn in the middle of the gate.

Can he repeat?

Five horses have won the Breeders' Cup Mile more than once: Miesque (1987-88), Lure (1992-93), Da Hoss (1996 and 1998), Goldikova (2008-10, three straight) and Wise Dan (2012-13). Nobody has done it since Wise Dan. Notable Speech has the best connections in the race's recent history on his side: Appleby and Buick won it with Space Blues (2021), Modern Games (2022, at Keeneland), Master of the Seas (2023) and Notable Speech (2025). Only Cherie DeVaux's More Than Looks broke that streak in 2024.

The contenders

Rhetorical (#9, 8-1): the Keeneland specialist

No one in the field has better form over this course. Rhetorical has won the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) here twice, most recently on October 3rd by 2 ¼ lengths over Lake Forest, and he also won the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs this spring. The catch is his running style. He likes to lead, he led into the stretch in this race last year before finishing fourth, and the last horse to win the Mile wire-to-wire was Lure in 1992.

Deterministic (#1, 8-1): the top American hope

Deterministic won six races in a row, including the Manhattan (G1) in course-record time and the Fourstardave (G1), before Notable Speech caught him in the Woodbine Mile (G1). He has the tactical speed to grab a spot from the rail, but he'll have plenty of company early.

Lake Forest (#2, 6-1): the closer

Lake Forest has finished second to both Notable Speech (City of York) and Rhetorical (Coolmore Turf Mile) in his last two starts. He's a slow starter who needs a strong pace, and jockey Cieren Fallon thinks he'll get one: "There will be more pace at the Breeders' Cup which will suit." The knock is class. He has no Grade or Group 1 win, and 12 of the last 15 Mile winners already had one.

True Love (#12) and Puerto Rico (#14): the O'Brien pair

True Love (8-1) won the 1,000 Guineas (G1) and the Prix de la Foret (G1) at seven furlongs in her final prep, but O'Brien himself isn't sure she'll get a mile against this field. Ryan Moore chose Puerto Rico (10-1), a two-time Group 1 winner at two, who was beaten just two heads in the Foret but drew the far outside post. A win by either would break the tie in the race to 22 Breeders' Cup wins between Aidan O'Brien and Bob Baffert.

Formidable Man (#11, 15-1): the value play

Formidable Man was second to Notable Speech in this race last year, and he won the Shoemaker Mile (G1) in May. His last start was a dull seventh at Kentucky Downs, but trainer Michael McCarthy put that on himself, saying the horse "never handled" that turf course and calling it "trainer error." He has trained up to this race since, and at 15-1 he's a Grade 1 winner who's a big price for this race.

The rest of the field

• Facteur Cheval (#3, 30-1): The 2024 Dubai Turf (G1) winner is seven now, but he won an allowance over this course on October 8th for new trainer Mark Casse. He's a live longshot for the bottom of trifectas and superfectas.
• Ask Ikigomi (#5, 20-1): Lightly raced Japanese 3-year-old who was beaten a nose in the NHK Mile Cup (G1). He's improving, but it's a big class test.
• Cabo Spirit (#4, 30-1): Wire-to-wire winner of the City of Hope Mile. Pure speed in a race full of it.
• Qirat (#7, 30-1), Lugal (#10, 30-1), Brilliant Berti (#13, 30-1): Qirat won the 2025 Sussex (G1) at 150-1, so never say never, but none of these three has the 2026 form to beat the top tier. Lugal has never won beyond about seven furlongs.

Breeders' Cup Mile trends

Here's what the last 15 editions (2011-2025) tell us, according to America's Best Racing:

• Favorites: Six of 15 favorites won (40%). The median winning price was about 5-1.
• Europeans: European-based horses won seven of 15, including five of the last six.
• Class: 12 of 15 winners were already Grade or Group 1 winners.
• Running style: 12 of 15 winners were outside the top three after the first quarter-mile.
• Keeneland preps: Seven of 15 winners prepped at Keeneland, five of them in the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1). Three came out of the Woodbine Mile (G1).

Keeneland has hosted three Breeders' Cup Miles. Tepin won for Mark Casse in 2015, Order of Australia led an O'Brien 1-2-3 at 73-1 in 2020, the first year the race carried the FanDuel name, and Modern Games won for Appleby and Buick in 2022.

Put it together and the profile points straight at the favorite: a European-based Grade 1 winner with a closing kick, coming out of the Woodbine Mile (G1), with the race's most successful trainer and jockey.

2026 FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile picks

• Strongest profile: #8 Notable Speech (7-5). He fits every trend, he has the best turn of foot in the field, and the expected pace battle up front plays right into his hands. He's a short price, so he may be a better fit in exotics than as a straight win bet.
• Value play: #11 Formidable Man (15-1). Last year's runner-up has a legitimate excuse for his last start, and he's a Grade 1 winner at a price that pays well in the exacta.
• Contender: #2 Lake Forest (6-1). If the pace collapses, he'll be flying late. He's a strong use underneath even if the lack of a Group 1 win keeps him off the top of our tickets.
• Longshot: #3 Facteur Cheval (30-1). He has proven Grade 1 class and a recent win over the course. He's worth including at the bottom of trifectas and superfectas.

Example Ticket: FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile

Win bet: $10 to win on #8 Notable Speech. At 7-5, that returns $24 if the odds hold.

Exacta key: $2 exacta, #8 on top of #2, #9, #11, #12. Four combinations for $8.

Trifecta: $1 trifecta, #8 / #2, #9, #11 / #2, #3, #9, #11, #12. Twelve combinations for $12.

Against the favorite: $1 exacta box, #2, #9, #11. Six combinations for $6, a way to play against the favorite.

Payouts are based on morning-line odds; your actual return depends on the final odds at post time. Watch for scratches and turf-condition changes before Saturday, since a softer course would change the picture for the European shippers. See the latest Breeders' Cup odds for updated prices, and see our Longines Breeders' Cup Classic storylines and bets for the race that closes the night.

For the full card, see the latest Breeders' Cup odds and every race at Keeneland on FanDuel Racing.

Odds are morning lines from the Oct. 26 draw and are subject to change.

Payouts above are based on morning-line odds; the actual pari-mutuel payout depends on the final odds at post time. Want more Saturday storylines? See Forever Young, Sovereignty, Golden Tempo: the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic storylines and how to bet them, and see the latest Breeders' Cup odds for updated prices.

For the full card, see the latest Breeders' Cup odds and every race at Keeneland on FanDuel Racing.

Odds are morning lines from the Oct. 26 draw and are subject to change.

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