2025 NFL Expected Touchdown Leaderboard for Player Prop Betting, Fantasy Football

We all love touchdowns.

Whether we're looking at player props when perusing the NFL betting odds or looking to buy low for season-long and daily fantasy football, touchdowns matter.

But touchdowns can be volatile, and touchdown regression is a powerful piece to the puzzle when analyzing the game.

To help track who has had a lot of touchdown luck -- or a lack of it -- I'll be posting my expected touchdown numbers each and every week here on FanDuel Research.

What goes into these numbers? A few things -- such as EPA metrics, yardage, and specific field location on each and every play of all NFL games.

Updated through Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season.

Most Expected Touchdowns in 2025

This table displays rushing plus receiving expected touchdowns (xTD) and actual touchdowns -- plus the differential between the two numbers.

Players with positive differentials have scored more often than the underlying data suggests they should have.

Players with negative differentials have been unlucky and should've scored more often, according to historical data based on their 2025 usage.

The table is sorted by xTD and lists running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey remain a cut above the rest of the league in xTDs (8.6 and 8.5, respectively) but to different results (11 scores for Taylor and 6 for McCaffrey).

Davante Adams is in a tier of his own at 6.9 expected touchdowns (with 6 scores).

Who should've scored more than they have? These are the names with 1.5 scores under expected or more:

• Christian McCaffrey: -2.5
• Chase Brown: -2.3
• Justin Jefferson: -2.2
• Jakobi Meyers: -2.1
• Jaylen Warren: -2.1
• Breece Hall: -2.0
• Jerry Jeudy: -1.9
• Jalen Nailor: -1.9
• Isaiah Bond: -1.7
• Jerome Ford: -1.7
• Brashard Smith: -1.6
• Alvin Kamara: -1.6
• Jalen Tolbert: -1.6
• Brock Bowers: -1.5
• Stefon Diggs: -1.5

Four players have scored at least 2.5 more times than the underlying data suggests they should've:

• De'Von Achane: 3.5
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 3.2
• Dallas Goedert: 2.9
• Michael Pittman Jr.: 2.5

Most Expected Touchdowns in 2025 (Quarterbacks)

This quarterback table splits out xTDs by passing TD and scrimmage TD data. It's sorted by passing xTDs.

Based on the data, better days should be ahead for Spencer Rattler (-3.4 passing touchdowns versus expectation), but that's been the case all year.

The three other notable standouts among those with double-digit expected passing touchdowns are Justin Herbert (-1.6), Daniel Jones (-1.3), and Trevor Lawrence (-1.9).

An interesting name to monitor moving forward is Aaron Rodgers, who has an 8.1% touchdown rate (touchdowns per attempt). The NFL average is 4.8%. Rodgers' 14 passing touchdowns is 4.5 more than expectation, though that still trails Jared Goff's +4.7 touchdowns over expected. Goff has a 7.4% touchdown rate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.