2025 NFL Expected Touchdown Leaderboard for Player Prop Betting, Fantasy Football

We all love touchdowns.

Whether we're looking at player props when perusing the NFL betting odds or looking to buy low for season-long and daily fantasy football, touchdowns matter.

But touchdowns can be volatile, and touchdown regression is a powerful piece to the puzzle when analyzing the game.

To help track who has had a lot of touchdown luck -- or a lack of it -- I'll be posting my expected touchdown numbers each and every week here on FanDuel Research.

What goes into these numbers? A few things -- such as EPA metrics, yardage, and specific field location on each and every play of all NFL games.

Updated through Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season.

Most Expected Touchdowns in 2025

This table displays rushing plus receiving expected touchdowns (xTD) and actual touchdowns -- plus the differential between the two numbers.

Players with positive differentials have scored more often than the underlying data suggests they should have.

Players with negative differentials have been unlucky and should've scored more often, according to historical data based on their 2025 usage.

The table is sorted by xTD and lists running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Christian McCaffrey (9.8 xTD) has overtaken Jonathan Taylor (9.2) at the top of the expected leaderboard touchdown list after another big-usage game, which led to 2 touchdowns for McCaffrey.

Javonte Williams (8.4) and Davante Adams (8.0) remain in Tier 2, though Josh Jacobs (7.7) is in that mix, as well.

Here are the eight names with 2.0 touchdowns under expectation to date.

• Jerry Jeudy: -2.7
• Tetairoa McMillan: -2.5
• Chase Brown: -2.3
• Jakobi Meyers: -2.2
• Justin Jefferson: -2.1
• Dyami Brown: -2.0
• Jalen Nailor: -2.0
• Kyle Monangai: -2.0

Most Expected Touchdowns in 2025 (Quarterbacks)

This quarterback table splits out xTDs by passing TD and scrimmage TD data. It's sorted by passing xTDs.

A tier of four sits at the top of the passing xTD list:

• Dak Prescott: 18.9
• Matthew Stafford: 18.5
• Justin Herbert: 18.1
• Patrick Mahomes: 17.9

That certainly tracks.

Trevor Lawrence is the biggest passing xTD underperformer (-3.8 scores) through Week 9. His touchdown rate of 3.1% well off of an expected 4.4%, which would be a career high.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.