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Casino2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 4
Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season is officially in the books! The Buffalo Bills now hold the top spot in our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric -- while the Chicago Bears drop one spot and sit at the bottom.
The Arizona Cardinals' shocking 28-16 upset win over the Dallas Cowboys sees the Cards jump seven places, landing in 20th place. Dallas drops four spots to fifth.
After their disappointing 22-19 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, the Baltimore Ravens tumbled two spots and now sit in seventh place. The Miami Dolphins jump five spots after their historic 70-20 blowout win over the Denver Broncos and now reside in second.
The team with the largest increase in Super Bowl odds -- per numberFire's model -- after Week 3? The Philadelphia Eagles -- up 9.3 percentage points.
The team with the largest decrease in Super Bowl odds after Week 3? The Cowboys -- down 5.0 percentage points.
These Power Rankings will continue to shift weekly as the story of the season is written.
Here's where things stand heading into Week 4.
NFL Power Rankings (Week 4)
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
Rank | Team | nERD | Playoff Odds | Division Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Chicago Bears | -9.05 | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Denver Broncos | -8.25 | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 30 | New York Giants | -7.35 | 4.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 29 | Las Vegas Raiders | -5.44 | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Houston Texans | -5.19 | 9.5% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 27 | Carolina Panthers | -4.94 | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 26 | Tennessee Titans | -4.46 | 26.2% | 20.4% | 0.2% |
A Broncos Blunder. A Denver Disaster. Whatever you want to call it, Sean Payton's team was embarrassed in Week 3, losing 70-20 to the Dolphins. The result is a massive 12-spot fall in the rankings all the way down to 31st, above only the Chicago Bears. This may not be rock bottom, but it's certainly close. Three games into the Payton era in Denver, the Broncos' defense ranks last by numberFire's opponent-adjusted model. Their offense ranks 13th, providing a small glimmer of hope. The good news for Denver is that they face Chicago in Week 4 and the New York Jets in Week 5. For Denver to have any chance of salvaging their season, they need to win both contests.
Hope in Houston? The Houston Texans' impressive 37-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars sees them escape the bottom of the power rankings for the first time this season, jumping up four spots to 28th. C.J. Stroud's career is off to an excellent start, and the Texans' passing offense ranks eighth by numberFire's metrics. There is still room for improvement as their rushing offense ranks last and their overall defense ranks 23rd, but for the first time in a while, the future looks bright in Houston. A Week 4 clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers will present the Texans' offense with a difficult challenge.
The Washington Commanders were handed a reality check in Week 3's 37-3 loss to the Bills. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. Most notably, Sam Howell tossed four interceptions and was sacked nine times. The result is an eight-spot drop, the second-largest of the week, to 25th overall. The Commanders' offense, which had been a bright spot, now ranks 29th by numberFire's metrics. Their defense ranks 22nd, but their run D checks in 31st. If the Commanders fall behind, they are not well-positioned to stop the run defensively or play catch-up offensively. A Week 5 clash with the Eagles means things will likely get worse before they get better.
With Gardner Minshew under center, the Colts secured a 22-19 overtime win against the Ravens. They moved up two spots and have the highest odds of making the playoffs (45.1%) and winning their division (35.2%) of any team in the bottom tier.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
Rank | Team | nERD | Playoff Odds | Division Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.08 | 46.1% | 37.6% | 0.8% |
| 21 | New York Jets | -1.64 | 4.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 20 | Arizona Cardinals | -1.41 | 3.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.27 | 38.6% | 11.8% | 0.3% |
| 18 | New England Patriots | -1.04 | 8.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.88 | 30.4% | 10.8% | 0.2% |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | -0.59 | 35.2% | 3.8% | 0.3% |
A slow start or a sign of things to come? That's the question being asked in Jacksonville this week. After their 37-17 loss to Houston in Week 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars slid another four spots and now sit in 22nd, one spot above the bottom tier and a whopping 12 spots below where they began the season.
An offense that was expected to ascend currently ranks 26th, per numberFire, hamstrung by an ineffective passing attack that ranks 28th. Their defense ranks ninth against the run but just 24th against the pass. As it stands, the Jaguars can't pass the ball on offense or defend the pass on defense. In the modern NFL, that is a tough situation to be in.
The Cardinals shocked the league with their 28-16 victory over Dallas in Week 3. They were the better team from start to finish, and their offense ranks seventh in numberFire's metrics, supported by a rushing offense that rates out fourth-best. James Conner and the Cardinals will face a big test against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4.
After an 0-2 start against the Dolphins and Eagles, the New England Patriots turned things around with a 15-10 win over the Jets. The win was far from convincing, but New England moved up seven spots, tied with Arizona for the largest jump this week. The Patriots' defense ranks 10th, per numberFire, but their offense ranks 24th. Their offense will have to improve if they are going to overcome one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. As it stands, New England's odds of making the playoffs sit at just 8.8%. A Week 4 clash with the Cowboys in Dallas provides another difficult test on both sides of the ball.
Despite trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the Los Angeles Chargers secured a crucial 28-24 win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3. The positive result saw them climb five spots, but it had little impact on their odds of making the playoffs, which improved only 3.4 percentage points to 36.7%. A Week 4 clash with the Las Vegas Raiders gives the Bolts an excellent chance to secure back-to-back wins and build positive momentum.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
Rank | Team | nERD | Playoff Odds | Division Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Los Angeles Rams | 0.61 | 9.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers | 1.58 | 72.2% | 37.2% | 1.1% |
| 10 | New Orleans Saints | 2.04 | 77.4% | 53.4% | 1.2% |
| 9 | Detroit Lions | 2.61 | 83.5% | 58.3% | 2.9% |
| 8 | Cleveland Browns | 3.99 | 73.6% | 32.5% | 2.8% |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 5.64 | 75.8% | 43.0% | 4.6% |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6.28 | 97.2% | 73.9% | 16.1% |
The Detroit Lions 20-6 win over the Atlanta Falcons sees them move up four spots and rejoin the top 10. Detroit's run game has struggled, but their passing offense ranks seventh, per numberFire. Through three weeks, the Lions' defense has the look of a much-improved unit, ranking 11th against the run and 16th against the pass. Their odds of making the playoffs sit at 83.5%, seventh-best among all teams, and their odds of winning their division (58.3%) rank fifth-best. Games against the Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the next three weeks give Detroit a chance to further improve those odds.
The Cleveland Browns' odds of making the playoffs increased by 22.9 percentage points in Week 3, the second-largest increase behind only the Packers (23.0 percentage points). A Week 4 matchup with the Ravens sets the stage for a crucial early-season divisional showdown. With a Week 5 date against the 49ers looming for Cleveland, a win over Baltimore is a must.
The Cowboys' disastrous loss to Arizona had a large impact on their postseason outlook. Their odds of winning their division dropped 30.7 percentage points, and their odds of winning the Super Bowl dropped by 5.0 percentage points, the largest drop of the week in both categories. They still have the sixth-best odds of making the playoffs (84.6%), but if the Cowboys enter the postseason as a Wild Card, their path to a Super Bowl becomes much more difficult. Their matchups against the Eagles in Weeks 8 and 14 loom large.
Seventy points. What more is there to say? The story of Week 3 was the Dolphins' absolute offensive masterclass against the Broncos, which resulted in a 70-20 victory and a four-spot climb to second overall. They did all of it with Jaylen Waddle sidelined with a concussion.
The Dolphins' offense ranks first in numberFire's metrics by a large margin. The gap between Miami and the second-place 49ers is greater than the gap between the 49ers and the 20th-place Falcons. The Dolphins' run defense slots in 29th, but their pass defense ranks 7th. Miami's offense forces their opponents to have to pass to catch up, making them play into the strength of their defense.
The Buffalo Bills' 37-3 win over Washington resulted in a two-spot climb, and they just barely edge past Miami for the top position. Buffalo has rebounded nicely after their opening-week loss to the Jets and looks like the team many expected them to be. Despite that, their odds of winning their division sit at just 36.3% (10th-best) -- well behind the Dolphins' odds (63.1%). The Bills will get a chance to change that when they face Miami in Buffalo in Week 4. That matchup is must-see TV.
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