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Casino2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 1
We are just days away from the beginning of another NFL season. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs hold the top spot in our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric -- while the rebuilding Houston Texans start at the bottom.
With Tom Brady officially (for now) retired, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers open the 2023-24 season ranked inside the bottom five.
After an excellent finish last season and an influx of talent in the NFL draft, the Detroit Lions appear to be headed in the right direction and sit inside the top 10.
Joining them are the New York Jets, who have their sights set on a Super Bowl after their offseason acquisition of Aaron Rodgers.
On the other end of that deal, the Green Bay Packers begin the Jordan Love-era ranked 16th, one spot ahead of the Minnesota Vikings.
Each NFL season is an epic saga, and these Power Rankings will shift weekly as the story of the 2023-24 season is written. Let the story begin.
NFL Power Rankings (Week 1)
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
Rank | Team | nERD | Playoff Odds | Division Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Houston Texans | -5.67 | 13.70% | 8.60% | 0.20% |
| 31 | Arizona Cardinals | -4.39 | 14.70% | 6.20% | 0.50% |
| 30 | Indianapolis Colts | -3.94 | 24.10% | 16.10% | 0.40% |
| 29 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3.03 | 23.30% | 12.10% | 0.60% |
| 28 | Tennessee Titans | -1.27 | 41.10% | 29.40% | 1.30% |
| 27 | Washington Commanders | -1.1 | 28.00% | 9.40% | 1.30% |
| 26 | Los Angeles Rams | -1.06 | 33.00% | 16.00% | 1.30% |
The Tennessee Titans are an outlier from this group. While the majority of these sides are starting a rebuild and focused on the future, the Titans still believe they are in a win-now window. The offseason addition of DeAndre Hopkins and their decision to continue with Ryan Tannehill under center signal their intent.
The Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee are the only teams in the bottom 10 who will enter the season with a veteran starter at QB who was also on their roster last season. The Titans do have the best odds to win their division (29.4%) of this group, aided by their place in a weak AFC South, but they will have to surpass an ascending Jaguars team to do so. However you look at it, the Titans sitting at 28th isn't a great starting point for a team whose win-now window is quickly closing.
The Chicago Bears are favorites to break out of this group and have the best Super Bowl odds (1.9%) among the bottom 10. After several key offseason additions on both sides of the ball, Chicago is hoping to finish this season ranked much higher on this list. Failing to do so would be a massive disappointment.
The Atlanta Falcons have the best odds of making the playoffs (46.6%) among the bottom-10 squads. A wide-open NFC South provides them with the opportunity to do so, but any chance of success this season rests on the shoulders of Desmond Ridder. The NFL's easiest schedule and playmakers on offense provide Ridder with an excellent opportunity. Can he grasp it?
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
Rank | Team | nERD | Playoff Odds | Division Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | New England Patriots | -0.79 | 25.20% | 10.70% | 1.20% |
| 21 | Las Vegas Raiders | -0.71 | 29.80% | 12.50% | 1.30% |
| 20 | Denver Broncos | -0.7 | 30.00% | 13.10% | 1.10% |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.61 | 35.30% | 13.30% | 1.30% |
| 18 | New York Giants | -0.5 | 31.70% | 11.50% | 1.60% |
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | -0.39 | 36.10% | 19.60% | 1.90% |
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | -0.29 | 42.80% | 24.10% | 2.00% |
The Packers enter this season with a large range of outcomes. Despite the uncertainty under center, they begin the year ranked higher than both the Vikings, who have a Super Bowl victory in mind, and the New York Giants, who are expecting big things in Brian Daboll's second year following their decision to sign Daniel Jones to a new contract. Green Bay's position above those two sides says more about the Giants' and Vikings' overly optimistic expectations than it does about the Packers. Regardless, the Packers could quickly fall down this list if Love gets off to a slow start against the Bears in Week 1.
The Cleveland Browns find themselves at the top of this section despite the late-season struggles of Deshaun Watson. For Cleveland to remain around 13th -- or to break into the top 12 -- Watson will need to drastically improve on last year's play and return to the form that he showed in Houston. Anything less and Cleveland could move down the list in a hurry.
The New Orleans Saints have the best odds of making the playoffs (56.1%) and of winning their division (36.9%) among the 10 teams in this group. A weak NFC South presents New Orleans with a golden opportunity to begin the Derek Carr era with a bang. The Saints have the 11th-best Super Bowl odds (2.5%), rankings above both the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers. Five of New Orleans' first six games come against teams ranked in the bottom 22 on this list.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
Rank | Team | nERD | Playoff Odds | Division Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0.71 | 38.10% | 17.20% | 2.00% |
| 11 | Miami Dolphins | 1.1 | 38.50% | 16.80% | 2.10% |
| 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.25 | 56.60% | 45.90% | 3.20% |
| 9 | Detroit Lions | 1.6 | 56.00% | 35.50% | 4.10% |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | 2.58 | 59.50% | 30.40% | 4.80% |
| 7 | New York Jets | 2.96 | 54.30% | 28.40% | 5.20% |
| 6 | Dallas Cowboys | 3.12 | 60.30% | 30.50% | 5.90% |
The Chiefs enter the season as favorites to defend their Super Bowl title (11.4%), with the Philadelphia Eagles close behind them (10.3%). Kansas City also boasts the highest odds to win their division (57.3%) of any team in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers are the only team ranked inside the top eight whose quarterback is not ranked inside the top 10 in MVP odds, per the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Brock Purdy is tied with four other signal callers for the 11th-best odds to win MVP.
The offseason hype around the Jets has reached deafening levels, but it appears justified based on their seventh-place ranking by nERD. Due to their place in an incredibly competitive AFC East, the Jets have the lowest odds of winning their division (28.4%) of any team ranked inside the top 10. All signs point toward the Jets entering the playoffs as a dangerous wild card.
The Chargers and Dolphins also face difficult schedules this season. Despite ranking 11th and 12th on this list, the Chargers' and Dolphins' odds to make the postseason rank 19th and 20th, respectively. In the NFC, LA and Miami would rank 5th and 6th, respectively, in nERD, but in the AFC, they rank 7th and 8th. The AFC is full of powerhouses.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.