Golf

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

The PGA Tour goes international this week for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club Course Info

  • Par: 70
  • Distance: 7,079 yards (around 140 yards shorter than the average par 70)
  • Recent Winning Scores: -15, -15, -19
  • Recent Cut Lines: No-cut event

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club Course Key Stats

Off the top, there have been only three events at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club so far, and in 2020, the event was held at Sherwood Country Club in California due to the pandemic.

We also don't have ShotLink data from this course, meaning there's a lot of guesswork still at what truly matters here, but what we do tend to see is historically good ball-strikers playing well.

Winners at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club include Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama, and Keegan Bradley.

Ultimately, distance and all-around play is a good recipe with, perhaps, a lessened emphasis on putting.

Best Golfers at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.

Golfer
FanDuel Salary
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
ZOZO 2022
ZOZO 2021
ZOZO 2019
Course SG:T
Course SG:T/Rd
Hideki Matsuyama$11,500+1600401230.552.55
Keegan Bradley$10,800+2200171324.552.05
Shugo Imahira$7,200+5000078185917.451.45
Xander Schauffele$12,000+7009281015.551.30
Joel Dahmen$8,200+8000167615.391.92
Sungjae Im$11,400+140029312.611.58
Kaito Onishi$7,000+1000007612.413.10
View Full Table

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

Golfer
FanDuel Salary
Win%
Top-10%
Top-20%
Made Cut%
Xander Schauffele$12,00014.05%57.34%76.76%100.00%
Collin Morikawa$11,9007.04%45.46%63.40%100.00%
Rickie Fowler$11,7005.98%42.66%60.33%100.00%
Sungjae Im$11,4004.73%33.15%56.44%100.00%
Sahith Theegala$10,9004.29%32.59%51.53%100.00%
Min Woo Lee$11,2004.01%26.54%49.89%100.00%
Keegan Bradley$10,8003.79%30.89%49.26%100.00%
View Full Table

It's a no-cut event, and value is tight overall via the win simulation model.

Former winner Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) has odds shorter than the recent form suggests he should have.

The standout is the overall favorite, Xander Schauffele (+700), so that's always enticing. Schauffele is 14.0% likely to win this week, per my model.

Rickie Fowler (+1600) also has a nice number and is 6.0% likely to win this week, per my sims.

Longshots Lee Hodges (+9000) and Michael Kim (+12000) are targets for darts -- but also top-20s.

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Daily Fantasy Golf Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP DFS Studs

Xander Schauffele ($12,000 | +700)

Schauffele ranks first in the field in strokes gained: tee to green and fourth in strokes gained: putting, so that's a combination that you want in any field and at any event. Schauffele has also played here three times, finishing T10, T28, and T9.

He's easily the most likely winner in my simulation model, as well. The salary is very reasonable given the elevated win probability.

Keegan Bradley ($10,800 | +2500)

Bradley is top-25 in all four strokes gained stats and 10th, specifically, in the two short-game stats while also possessing plus distance off the tee.

Bradley also has played here in all three starts, finishing top-15 in all of them and winning here last year.

Others to Consider:

  • Rickie Fowler ($11,700 | +1600)
  • Eric Cole ($10,700 | +3000)
  • Adam Schenk ($10,100 | +4500)

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP DFS Mid-Range Plays

Adam Svensson ($9,700 | +4500)

Svensson's irons are trending back up in a noticeable way. He has gained strokes from approach play in six of his past seven starts and has two top-20s in as many starts this new season. He also was T15 at the BMW Championship in August.

Svensson played the course a year ago, finishing T59.

Kurt Kitayama ($9,000 | +7000)

Kitayama's win odds in my simulation model are pretty strong for the salary. He's a top-20 iron player in the field and played here last year (T29).

His putter is ice cold, so that explains poor finishes to end the 2022-23 season and the low salary.

Others to Consider:

  • Thomas Detry ($10,000 | +3500)
  • Ben Griffin ($9,300 | +6000)

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP DFS Value Plays

Nick Taylor ($8,500 | +8000)

Taylor has the 13th-best irons in the field and is ultimately 18th in strokes gained: tee to green, as well.

He'll have to overcome a lack of driving distance (-9.5 yards versus the world average golfer on a per-drive basis) but can make up for it with a lot of accuracy and iron play.

Davis Riley ($7,800 | +11000)

Riley is one of the best iron players among all value golfers in the field this week and did make the trip to this course last year. He finished just T67.

But cold putting and wedges have his results and salary well below what his long-term upside shows.

Others to Consider:

  • Lee Hodges ($8,600 | +8000)
  • Michael Kim ($8,300 | +12000)
  • K.H. Lee ($8,000 | +10000)
  • Keita Nakajima ($7,800 | +12000)

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.