Golf

Wyndham Championship Win Simulations: Henley Sits Atop the Model

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
Wyndham Championship Win Simulations: Henley Sits Atop the Model

While there might be a motivation narrative around the FedExCup Playoffs -- which begin next week -- it stands to reason that golfers want to win every time they tee it up.

Based on that assumption and no arbitrary tweaks based on FedExCup Standings, here is what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's PGA Tour event.

Wyndham Championship Win Simulations

Golfer
FanDuel Salary
Win%
Top-10%
Top-20%
Made Cut%
Russell Henley$11,6004.72%29.47%37.37%76.84%
Hideki Matsuyama$12,0004.33%25.90%34.31%73.13%
Denny McCarthy$10,7004.15%26.55%32.16%73.31%
Sungjae Im$11,9003.67%23.36%32.99%71.89%
Si Woo Kim$11,1003.56%20.58%32.73%69.57%
Shane Lowry$11,4002.86%18.70%26.03%65.01%
Aaron Rai$10,2002.46%18.25%26.91%67.70%
View Full Table

The early-week sims are highest on Russell Henley (+2200 odds to win the Wyndham Championship), but the win probability sits under 5.00%. That's a really low output for the top golfer in the simulation model but does make him an interesting name at +2200 for this week. He ranks fifth in the field over the past 50 rounds in strokes gained: approach and is first in driving accuracy.

The other two names above 4.00% are Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) and Denny McCarthy (+3500). Naturally, then, McCarthy is a name to look into this week. McCarthy is coming off of a missed cut at The Open but had finished inside the top 20 in four straight events entering it, including the U.S. Open.

Sungjae Im, the betting favorite at +1600, has great course history, yet the model isn't overly convinced of him due to the recent form: cut, T20, and cut in his past three while ranking just 43rd in strokes gained: approach over the past 50 rounds.

Names at longer odds with noteworthy win probabilities include Aaron Rai (+4500), Adam Hadwin (+6000), Brendon Todd (+7000), and Andrew Putnam (+9000).


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.