MLB

World Series Betting Picks, Player Props, and DFS Plays: Diamondbacks at Rangers (Game 2)

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
World Series Betting Picks, Player Props, and DFS Plays: Diamondbacks at Rangers (Game 2)

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.a

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Diamondbacks at Rangers

Over 4.5 Total Runs in First Five Innings (-130)

Tonight's matchup is an appealing spot for early offense during the first five innings when examining possible regression concerns with Jordan Montgomery and Merrill Kelly heading into Game 2.

In 25.0 innings this postseason despite recording a 2.16 earned run average, Montgomery could be due for a concerning change in luck when analyzing the gap between his ERA and his 4.16 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP) and a unsustainable 85.6% left on-base percentage.

On the opposing side, Arizona's Merrill Kelly holds a similar playoff profile with expected metrics (4.38 xFIP) almost two runs higher than his 2.65 earned run average and an improbable 93.8% left on-base percentage.

With both starting pitchers likely to see regression sooner than later, runs should be scored at an early rate during the first half of today's game when both are on the mound.

Corey Seager to Reach 2+ Bases (-130)

The Rangers' shortstop has been wielding a hot bat in his last 26 plate appearances, recording a sizzling .407 expected average, five barrels, and a 60% hard hit rate while also reaching this number in four of his last five games.

With his recent hot form, Seager profiles as a perfect way to attack Merrill Kelly's top weakness against left-handed hitting and his troubling metrics in this split including a 4.45 xFIP.

Ketel Marte to Reach 2+ Bases (-115)

Arizona's steady veteran has an ideal spot to reach a number he has already met in nine of his last eleven games in a matchup against Jordan Montgomeryand his trouble versus the right side of the plate (.307 weighted on-base average 4.10 xFIP).

In addition to his recent positive form, Marte has displayed impressive career production against left-handed pitching, accounting for a 131 weighted runs created rating (31% above) and a .369 weighted on-base average.

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Plays

For those unfamiliar with the single-game daily fantasy baseball format, scoring is identical to its full roster cousin, except you only roster hitters, and lineups consist of five flex spots.

The one twist? One of the five roster spots is your designated "MVP," who receives 2-times his total fantasy points, along with a "STAR" slot that gets 1.5-times the points.

Naturally, it's crucial that you choose your MVP and STAR carefully if you want to be at the top of the leaderboards when it's all said and done.

On that note, let's highlight some of the top options for today's FanDuel single-game slate.

At the Top

Adolis Garcia ($9,500): After hitting Game 1's winning home run , the Rangers' red-hot slugger is an ideal candidate for the MVP or STAR slot when examining his recent form in his last 36 plate appearances including a .310 expected average, six home runs, and a 54% hard hit rate.

Corey Seager ($9,000): Despite a recent 5.8% salary increase, Seager still ranks first among his team with a 12.8 fantasy projection. The 29-year old could be due for more production when comparing his current .257 average in his last 35 at-bats with his batted ball metrics including a .310 expected average and a 55% hard hit rate.

Corbin Carroll ($8,500): Arizona's rookie is second overall with a 13.2 fantasy projection after producing a .288 expected average and a 46% hard hit rate since the National League Championship series.

In the Middle

Ketel Marte ($8,000): The Diamondbacks' second baseman continues to be a consistent source for offense, accounting for a .302 expected average, six barrels, and a 54% hard hit rate in his last 36 at-bats.

Christian Walker ($7,500): Despite his recent struggles, Walker ranks first overall with a 13.4 fantasy projection and fourth in value with a 1.78 rating. Throughout his career, Arizona's slugger has performed well versus left-handed pitching, recording a 115 weighted runs created plus rating (15% above average) and a .344 weighted on-base average.

At the Bottom

Lourdes Gurriel ($6,500): The 30-year old is riding a six game hitting streak since October 19th, producing a .290 expected average and a 55% hard hit rate during this time period.

Tommy Pham ($6,000): After a 7.6% salary decrease, Pham ranks second overall in value with a 1.92 rating and a 11.5 fantasy projection. The veteran has raked against left-handed pitching, accounting for a 129 weighted runs created plus rating (29% above average) and a .360 weighted on-base average.

Josh Jung ($6,000): Despite producing a .233 average in his last 30 at-bats, the Rangers' third baseman is due for better luck when analyzing his .270 expected average and a 50% hard hit rate.

Gabriel Moreno ($5,500): After recording a .258 expected average and a 45% hard hit rate in his last 32 at-bats, the Diamondbacks' catcher is fifth overall in value with a 1.75 rating and a 9.6 fantasy projection.

Leody Taveras ($5,000): The Rangers' center field leads all hitters in value with a 2.0 rating and a 10.0 fantasy projection after his salary moved down 13.7%.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.