WNBA Betting Picks to Target for Friday 5/31/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
WNBA Betting Picks to Target for Friday 5/31/24

The WNBA is back, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx

Lynx -6.5 (-108)

The Minnesota Lynx (4-2) will host the Phoenix Mercury (3-4) this evening, and the home team looks primed to cover a somewhat modest spread.

Minnesota has had a tough go of it schedule-wise but has nonetheless managed. They won back-to-back games against the Seattle Storm and came out on top against the Atlanta Dream and New York Liberty.

They lost an overtime battle to the undefeated Connecticut Sun by a mere point and are coming off a loss at the hands of the back-to-back defending champions, the Las Vegas Aces.

A grueling schedule has left the Lynx with the second-best Massey Rating in the league, and I think they’ll take advantage of what will be their easiest matchup yet against Phoenix.

The Mercury may have handed the Aces their first and only loss of the season, but they’ve yet to shed the stigma of their league-worst 9-31 record in 2023. The team has dropped three straight games, are 1-3 on the road, and have been losing games by an average margin of 12.5 points.

Minnesota owns a 99.4 offensive rating (seventh) while Phoenix owns a 97.3 offensive rating (10th). The Lynx also have a significantly better defensive rating (92.5; second-best) than the Mercury (103.8; second-worst).

Napheesa Collier (22.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.7 steals, and 2.0 blocks per game) has been off to a red-hot start for Minnesota, earning her a Western Conference Player of the Week nod and +900 WNBA MVP odds (third-shortest). Look for the star forward to have her way against a Phoenix team that is rocking with an awfully small lineup.

Sharpshooter Kayla McBride, who is averaging 3.3 three-point makes (3PM; second-most in the WNBA) per game, could get going from downtown against a Phoenix team that is allowing the second-most 3PM in the league. Alanna Smith could, too. Smith (60.0% 3P%) and McBride (48.8% 3P%) currently own the top two three-point percentages in the W.

Phoenix isn’t short on offensive talent, with Kahleah Copper (+1330 MVP odds; fourth-shortest) in the midst of what could be her best season yet. Plus, Diana Taurasi is still kicking, averaging 16.4 points (second-most on the team).

But Copper and Taurasi shoot a combined 15.4 three-point attempts (3PA) per game, which makes up nearly half of their combined shot attempts. Minnesota allows the second-fewest 3PA per game and is forcing teams to shoot threes at a trying 28.8% clip.

Minnesota’s stars look set up to shine against a Phoenix defense that rivals the qualities of the Indiana Fever, but the same cannot be said for the Mercury against a tough-as-nails Lynx group. Add in that starting guard Rebecca Allen, who sports a team-best offensive rating, will sit out for her third straight game, and I’m more than happy to back the home team tonight.

Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun

Over 160.0 (-112)

The Sun have come out with a vengeance this season. Their 6-0 record has them suited atop the WNBA standings and leaves them as the only remaining undefeated team.

Connecticut is led by an intimidating defense. Coming into the night, they sport a 91.5 defensive rating (best). They’ve been allowing a meager 73.8 points per game (fewest) and play at the slowest pace in the league.

However, I think the market may have made too bold of an adjustment on tonight’s over/under given Connecticut’s marks.

Five of six Connecticut games have ended with a 161.0 game total or higher. A matchup against the cheetah-like Dallas Wings could help continue that trend.

Dallas plays at the fastest pace in the WNBA. Their lowest game total of the season came in at 157.0 points, while their average game total stands at a meaty 170.0 points.

The Sun and Wings rank second and fourth, respectively, in offensive rating. These teams also rank in the top two of free-throw attempts (FTA) per game and Dallas is surrendering a walloping 21.4 FTA each night (most).

Arike Ogunbowale is averaging a scorching 28.8 points per game (most in the WNBA) and could help maintain a fast pace. The Sun, despite their league-best defensive marks, have managed to let up the fourth-most points per game to opposing guards.

The Wings may not be the most likely candidate to hand Connecticut their first loss of the season, but they are a good enough team (fourth in Massey Ratings power rank) to push their quick pace onto the best of teams.

With this and the game total track records on each side in mind, I feel comfortable targeting the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.