WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Friday 7/5/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

The WNBA season is rolling along, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Atlanta Dream at Dallas Wings

Dream +4.5 (-110)

At this point in time, I don't think the Dallas Wings (4-16) deserve to enter any competition as the favorite, let alone 4.5-point favorites.

Dallas has dropped an unreal 14 of their last 15 games. They're surrendering the most points, steals, and assists per game while also letting up the second-most free-throw makes. On the season, they own a -10.0 net rating (worst), which has only been made worse since Maddy Siegrist was sidelined with a broken finger.

Siegrist was contributing 14.6 points and 4.2 rebounds per game for the Wings. She led the team in net rating and ranked first in defensive win shares.

In the seven games since Siegrist has been out, Dallas' net rating has plummeted to an appalling -17.3 (worst).

Although the Atlanta Dream (7-11) aren't without their own shortcomings and injuries, they should still manage to cover this spread.

On the season, Atlanta owns a -6.1 net rating (fourth-worst). They lost Rhyne Howard to an ankle injury and have since posted a -11.4 net rating (third-worst). While that rating is ugly, it's not nearly as ugly as Dallas' numbers sans Siegrist, and the Dream have been competing as of late.

They upset the Connecticut Sun (16-4) last week and have since gone on to lose a pair of games by eight points or fewer, both of which were against teams in current playoff positioning (New York Liberty, Chicago Sky).

Atlanta's defense is solid and should prove limiting against an inefficient Dallas group. Their offense is a different story, especially since Howard hit the sidelines, but they have been getting production from Allisha Gray (20.0 points per game across her last three contests) and the always-reliable Tina Charles (14.2 points and 9.1 rebounds per game).

The Dream come into this one off the heels of back-to-back rest days and own a 4-4 record on the road (tied for fifth-best). While I'm taking more of an anti-Wings approach rather than a pro-Dream approach to this game, I'll gladly back the 4.5 points here. This matchup might be closer to a pick'em than the market is indicating, so I'd consider siding with Dream Moneyline (+158), too.

Allisha Gray Over 17.5 Points (-104)

Gray is averaging 17.4 points since Howard was sidelined and could find herself a tick above that average tonight.

The shot volume will be there, as Gray is shooting 13.4 FGA across her last seven games. She scored at least 17 points in all but two of these games, going a combined 4-for-27 from the field (14.8%) in the two misses.

Finding easy shots shouldn't be a problem tonight. Dallas allows their opponents to shoot at a league-high 45.8% clip. As mentioned, they also let up the second-most free throws as well as the third-most three-point makes to opposing guards. Gray nets a combined 59.2% of her points from these areas.

Dallas also plays at a faster pace than Atlanta. The last time these teams met up, Gray led the Dream to an 83-78 victory, notching 22 points despite Howard being in the lineup.

Las Vegas Aces at Los Angeles Sparks

Dearica Hamby Over 26.5 Pts + Reb (-114)

Dearica Hamby isn't finished getting revenge on the Las Vegas Aces.

Hamby spent five years with the Aces before being dealt to the Los Angeles Sparks. The circumstances surrounding this trade were considered questionable and led to Hamby filing a discrimination lawsuit against Las Vegas, resulting in the loss of a draft pick for the Aces and a two-game suspension for head coach Becky Hammon.

The bad blood hasn't waned, and Hamby hammered Vegas with 38 PR and 28 PR in their two prior meetups this season. But while the revenge storyline is good and well, Hamby's numbers are the main reason to target this prop.

She is averaging 28.6 PR and has eclipsed 26.5 PR in 15 out of 19 games, missing by the hook in one of those two. Frankly, that hit rate is enough to make me back Hamby in this spot, but this is a good matchup, too.

The Aces play at the fastest pace in the league. Hamby has played six games against teams that rank in the top four of pace. In this split, she is averaging 32.2 PR and notched over 26.5 PR in each game. Vegas is also letting up the most points and rebounds to opposing centers, indicating that Hamby over 26.5 PR might just be the best prop on today's slate.

Chicago Sky at Seattle Storm

Jewell Loyd Under 31.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-125)

Jewell Loyd isn't an easy player to bet against given her high ceiling in the scoring department, but I think the market may have set this prop too high.

Loyd is averaging 29.2 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). She has recorded under 31.5 PRA in 12 out of 19 games.

While Loyd has cleared this prop in three straight games, we need to consider the competition that Loyd took advantage of. Two games were against Dallas and one was against the Indiana Fever, the two worst defenses in the league.

Loyd will not get to attack a defense-averse team tonight. Instead, she and the Seattle Storm will take on the Chicago Sky, the fifth-best defense in the WNBA.

Loyd has played 10 games against teams that came in as a top-eight defense. In this split, he averaged 26.2 PRA and recorded under 31.5 PRA in 7 out of 10 games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.