Will the Giants Struggle to Match Their Six Wins From Last Season?

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
Will the Giants Struggle to Match Their Six Wins From Last Season?

The New York Giants are still tied for third in the NFL when it comes to Super Bowl wins this century (2), but their fans probably aren't feeling the shine of those much recently.

Though the Giants did make the playoffs and win a game in 2023, that season has surrounded six consecutive others where the team failed to win more than six games in the NFL's easier conference. Oof.

Like any NFL team in July, there are still reasons for optimism for the G-Men this season. 2023's Head Coach of the Year, Brian Daboll, is still one of the NFL's brightest minds at squeezing the most out of his quarterback play, and Daniel Jones has shown glimpses of solid play. He's just hoping that fewer than three signal-callers see the field this season.

Some of the weirdness from last season has also departed with former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, a discontent Saquon Barkley, and an enigmatic Darren Waller out the door. Will stability bring better results?

The NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook have the Giants projected for 6.5 wins this season, but there are -150 odds (60.0% implied) slanted toward the under.

Will New York surprise out of a division that routinely produces a new winner, or will the football operation hit rock bottom and search for entirely new leadership?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

New York Giants 2024 Win Total Odds

Giants Over/Under 6.5 Wins

  • Over: +122
  • Under: -150

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +430
Odds to Win the NFC East: +1100
Odds to Win the NFC: +6500
Super Bowl Odds: +15000 (29th-best)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

  • Shane Bowen (Defensive Coordinator)
  • Michael Ghobrial (Special Teams Coordinator)

Why New York Could Win Over 6.5 Games

  • Malik Nabers Opens Up a New Dimension of Daboll's Offense
  • Offensive Line Pieces Live Up to Their Investment
  • Front Seven Pieces Wreak Havoc on Opposing Quarterbacks

If there's any optimism that the Giants improve from a bottom-three rushing, passing, and overall offense (per numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings), it starts with the G-Men's first-round pick.

Malik Nabers was taken sixth overall to give New York what they had so badly been missing on the outside: the go-to guy. No Giants wideout saw at least 80 targets or a 19.0% share of them in 2023, which is impossible to rectify when compared to league's best offenses feeding their top-shelf playmakers. Nabers, who racked up both 18.0 yards per catch and a 35.7% target share (third-best in FBS) in his final season at LSU, can perform just about any role expected of him.

At least on paper, the Giants also have the pieces to protect Daniel Jones long enough to get Nabers the ball. Andrew Thomas is an elite left tackle, and they invested high picks into Evan Neal and John Michael Schmitz Jr. despite both's struggles in their first two (or fewer) seasons. They were joined by former Las Vegas Raiders utility lineman Jermaine Eluemunor in free agency. There are enough pieces here that it shouldn't surprising if the Giants' O-Line takes a significant step forward.

Finally, the Giants were actually numberFire's 12th-best schedule-adjusted defense, which might have gotten lost amidst abysmal quarterback and offensive line play. The team added stud pass-rusher Brian Burns via trade from the Carolina Panthers and created a pretty frightening duo considering Kayvon Thibodeaux is coming off an 11.5-sack campaign. Plus, Dexter Lawrence is one of the best nose tackles in football, and Bobby Okereke posted a solid first season as a Giant at middle linebacker, too.

The Giants have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, and that'll always make them a threat to win a close game (or two) they shouldn't via sacks and turnovers. A league-average contribution on offense could see them sneak into the playoff mix.

Why New York Could Win Under 6.5 Games

  • Daniel Jones
  • A Significantly Reduced Running Game
  • One of the League's Worst Secondaries

Of course, this league is pretty simple in some areas. If Daniel Jones' play doesn't improve despite his hefty yearly annual salary, New York probably can't keep up.

Jones posted -0.33 expected points added (EPA) per drop back, which trailed his two backups and -- for some quick context -- Zach Wilson across town. With my own personal anecdote that there's a team element to quarterback efficiency stats, the passing offense hasn't changed dramatically outside of Nabers' arrival. If Danny Dimes is instead chucking rusty nickels, the G-Men are in trouble.

I've also ignored an elephant in the room while celebrating Nabers' selection. As one top-six pick enters, another -- in the form of running back Saquon Barkley -- has departed. Barkley's do-it-all, 14-game season gave New York a pulse; he was 13th in the NFL among qualifying backs in rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry (0.35). Given his exodus, the Giants turned to Devin Singletary in free agency, but Singletary's 4.2 yards per carry last year with the Houston Texans were the fewest of a lackluster NFL career. Thinking he'll replace Barkley in full is foolish, and sophomore Eric Gray has such little experience that it's hard to see his upside.

Finally, as optimistic as you have to be about the Giants' front seven, their secondary seems to be equally terrible. They were Pro Football Focus' 24th-ranked secondary a year ago and lost both Adoree' Jackson and Xavier McKinney as pieces from it. Second-round pick Tyler Nubin will have his hands full to replace McKinney, and Jackson was not directly replaced.

It's a reasonable verdict to say the Giants either stayed in neutral or actually got worse relative to the rest of the league -- and their conference, which added four new rookie first-rounders at QB. That's due to extreme trouble with the salary cap. Entering the season with Daboll, Jones, and reasonably comparable pieces has to be a terrifying prospect for Giants fans.

FanDuel's alternate NFL win total odds market lists Giants Under 5.5 Wins (+156) as an option, and it seems like a solid one. It would surprise few if the Giants were among the worst teams in the NFL and blew it up entirely at the end of 2024.

Looking for other NFL win totals or the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.