Who Will Win the NL Cy Young Award in 2024?

The first slate of MLB spring training games is set to lead off this week, making now the perfect time to dive into the futures market for the 2024 season.

Over on FanDuel Sportsbook, you may find an array of MLB Futures to sift through.

In this article, we'll turn our attention to the NL Cy Young race and look at the odds, award criteria, and top contenders. Our Skyler Carlin has got you covered if you'd like to check out the betting market for the AL Cy Young race.

Blake Snell took home the hardware for this award in 2023 after having a stellar year for the San Diego Padres. As of this writing, Snell remains an unsigned free agent, though there is some speculation that he could join the New York Yankees, which leaves room for a new NL pitcher to emerge as the frontrunner for this award.

If we check out the five most recent NL Cy Young winners and their resumes -- not including the shortened 2020 season -- specific criteria comes to the forefront.

Each of the last five NL Cy Young winners' resumes included at least 10 wins and a 2.43 ERA or better. Further, four of out five of these pitchers posted, at minimum, a 31.7% strikeout rate (K%), as well as 0.98 walks plus hits per innings pitched (WHIP) or better.

Team performance doesn't seem to hold value in the eyes of the voting body. While 6 of the last 10 NL Cy Young victors were a part of teams that eventually made the playoffs, just one of the last five winners made the playoffs.

Beyond an undeniable stat line, there does seem to be a bit of correlation between pitcher performance and free agency status. Two out of the last four NL Cy Young winners won this award on the brink of free agency.

With all this in mind, let's take a look at the NL Cy Young odds and see which contenders could build a solid case this season.

NL Cy Young Odds

Spencer Strider (+550)

Off the heels of a 20-win season, Spencer Strider comes into 2024 as the favorite to take home the NL Cy Young award.

Strider led the league in wins and strikeouts last year with the Atlanta Braves. His 36.8% K% was the best in MLB by a wide margin, and he even set a league record for the fastest pitcher to record 100 strikeouts, doing so in a mere 61.0 innings.

He's as flashy as they get and is a big reason why the Braves own the second-shortest World Series odds (+450), but he'll need to get his ERA under control in order to win this award.

In 2023, Strider posted a 3.86 ERA. The season prior, he was rocking with a 2.67 ERA, albeit through just 20 starts.

Strider is only 25 years old, so we could see him come into his own this year -- even more so than he already has -- and put up a lower ERA. If he stays healthy, there's no doubt he'll reign among the best punchout aces in the MLB, so the market doesn't seem off in pitting him as the favorite here.

Zack Wheeler (+850)

Zack Wheeler saw an uptick in his ERA last season, but there are plenty of reasons as to why we should consider him for this award.

His stat line last season included a 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 26.9% K%, and 13 wins for the Philadelphia Phillies. But in 2022, Wheeler posted a 2.82 ERA. The season prior, he touted a 2.78 ERA.

We know he is capable of delivering solid numbers in this regard, and though he finds himself in the same division as a powerhouse hitting team, the Braves, he could bully the remainder of the NL East batters.

Following the 2024 season, Wheeler will become an unrestricted free agent. We know that certain MLB teams love to dish out monstrous contracts, so look for Wheeler to give special consideration to his stat line and ensuing accolades this season.

Zac Gallen (+1200)

At one point considered a 2023 NL Cy Young favorite, Zac Gallen ran into some road bumps during the final months of last season, finishing in third place for this award.

Gallen will once again be a legitimate candidate, as his last two years of play have been particularly inspiring.

After posting a 2.54 ERA in the 2022 season, he fell a bit behind in 2023, clocking out with a 3.34 ERA. Nonetheless, he struck out the third-most batters among NL pitchers, behind just Strider and Snell.

While Gallen should be in the Cy Young conversation, it doesn't help that he finds himself in the same division as the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers did no favors to Gallen's Cy Young campaign last year, forcing him into a 9.90 ERA in two starts against this team. LA has since added Shohei Ohtani to their lineup, so they could serve as spoilers, once again.

Max Fried (+1300)

Strider isn't the only Braves pitcher worth considering in this market.

Max Fried dealt with a pair of injuries last season, causing him to start just 14 games. But even still, he made excellent use of his time on the mound, ending the year with a 2.55 ERA.

But when we check out how Fried fared during a full-health 2022 season, it's clear that we should be high on him to win this award. He posted a 2.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, all while punching out 170 batters and winning 14 games. This resulted in a second-place finish for the NL Cy Young award.

In the aftermath of this season, he will enter unrestricted free agency. Fried has yet to sign a big-money contract, so monetary motivations could certainly come into play this year.

Given his ultra-low ERA numbers in his last few seasons, he should be a top candidate in this market. If you could guarantee me that Fried would stay relatively healthy this season, he might be my top pick to win the Cy Young.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.