3 Best Bets and Player Prop Bets for Vikings vs Bills Monday Night Football Prediction

Bills vs Vikings MNF Bets at a Glance

• Josh Allen Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
• Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+165)
• Minnesota Vikings +3.0 (-105)

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Week 9 wraps up with a fun MNF matchup between the Vikings and the Bills.

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant. You've got everything from spreads and totals at your disposal to touchdown scorers and player props. It can be a lot to sort through. We can help.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this game.

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NFL Picks, Prediction for Bills vs Vikings MNF

Josh Allen Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Josh Allen has finished below 30.5 rushing yards in five of his seven games this season, despite averaging 7.9 carries per contest.

The Minnesota Vikings are a difficult matchup for the Buffalo Bills‘ offense, with the ranking first in defensive EPA per play (-0.189), first in defensive dropback EPA (-0.210), and sixth in defensive rushing EPA (-0.161) through Week 8. The Vikings also own the league’s best defensive success rate (36.1%), giving them a credible path to limiting scramble opportunities and extending drives less often.

Allen’s explosiveness always creates risk for an under, particularly after his 121-yard game against the Rams, but his inconsistent rushing production supports fading this number against a pressure-heavy Minny D that has allowed just 11.6 rushing yards per game to QBs..

Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+165)

Justin Jefferson has scored four touchdowns in six appearances this season, including a score in Minnesota’s most recent game against Detroit. Three of those four touchdowns came on catches made inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, an encouraging indicator of his high-value red-zone role.

Buffalo ranks 26th in defensive dropback EPA allowed (+0.174 per play) through Week 8, and its defensive dropback success rate allowed of 49.7% ranks 26th as well.

Jefferson does not need a massive yardage total to cash this bet, and his proven scoring usage gives him a reasonable chance to find the end zone. Plus, with how Kyler Murray was playing, Carson Wentz isn’t much of a downgrade.

Minnesota Vikings +3.0 (-105)

The Vikings enter this matchup at 6-1 and are getting a full field goal at home against a Buffalo team with the same record.

Minnesota’s defense leads the NFL in EPA allowed per play (-0.189), defensive success rate (36.1%), and dropback EPA allowed (-0.210), while Buffalo leads in offensive EPA per play (+0.175); that elite-on-elite matchup provides a credible route to keeping this close.

Although Minnesota’s offense ranks just 30th in EPA per play (-0.099), Buffalo’s defense is 27th in EPA allowed per play (+0.085) and 26th against the pass (+0.174), offering room for Minnesota to move the ball.

In what could be a tight, relatively low-scoring game, I am taking the points with the home side.

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NFL Betting Frequently Asked Questions

What is an NFL point spread?

A point spread is designed to level the playing field between two teams. Favorites must win by more than the spread, while underdogs can either win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread.

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A moneyline bet is simply picking which team will win the game. Favorites have negative odds, while underdogs have positive odds.

What are NFL player props?

Player prop bets focus on an individual player's performance, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns, or receptions, rather than the outcome of the game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.