UFC Vegas 89: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC Vegas 89: Ribas vs. Namajunas, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Mick Parkin vs. Mohammed Usman

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

There are some pretty awesome training partners in the opener on Saturday. It hasn't quite translated to these two's results, though.

Mick Parkin hasn't fought poorly to secure two UFC wins, but the decision results weren't what he aspired to earn. Tom Aspinall, this division's current interim champion, is about as good of a sparring bud as you can have as a heavyweight, and there are elements -- like speed and grappling upside -- that have definitely translated to Mick.

Parkin's 52% striking accuracy and 55% striking defense are both efficiency that follows in Big Tom's footsteps, and he's added 2.35 takedowns per 15 minutes. If there's a concern for him in this matchup, it might be his takedown D that stands relatively untested (2-for-4) at this stage.

In the red corner, Kamaru Usman's brother, Mohammed Usman, will look to extend his UFC record to 4-0. In his last bout, Usman won a controversial decision over Jake Collier (5-9 UFC) in large part due to an eye poke that directly turned the fight. "Motor" has sputtered to decisions in consecutive fights against true heavyweights after knocking out upsized light heavyweight Zac Pauga (1-3 UFC) in his debut.

Usman's peripherals are not that of an undefeated fighter. In addition to a -1.04 striking success rate (SSR), he's struggled to secure takedowns (18% success rate) against entry-level competition. Once there, the Nigerian doesn't have a win via submission since early in his career (August 2017).

While it's possible the same attributes -- superior conditioning and durability -- that allowed Usman to skate by his foes to this stage also thwart Parkin, I believe the Englishman to be the more dangerous submission threat and faster, more efficient striker. A -144 price for that isn't shabby.

Betting Verdict

• My favorite play in this fight when the Englishman lacks power into Usman's modest durability is Parkin's submission prop (+900).
  • Mick snatched one in his UFC-affiliated debut, and Usman's last loss came via submission.
• The odds for this fight to go the distance (-136) imply significantly different than this division's finish-heavy trends. Under 2.5 rounds (+134) might also not be getting its fair shake as most examine these two's respective box scores.

DFS Verdict

• Parkin ($17) has averaged 86.5 FanDuel points per fight in his first three UFC-affiliated appearances. Without an early finish, it's hard to see him in the MVP mix, so his best role might be in flex spots until we see unquestionable upside.

Andre Lima vs. Igor Da Silva

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

I nearly went Austin's Fight of the Night with this one, but I'm not overly sure it'll last very long. These Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) alums are, intriguingly, going to start their journey against one another after winning contracts on the show in 2023.

In one corner, 20-year-old Igor Da Silva has a lot of appeal here as an underdog. The flyweight trains with Chute Box, the ultra-aggressive gym that birthed Charles Oliveira and others, and he brought that non-stop action to his appearance on the show. Da Silva landed exactly 9.85 significant strikes per minute and 9.85 takedowns per 15 minutes, and the blistering pace crumbled his opponent in the second round.

The efficiency was extremely Chute Boxian, though. His striking accuracy (55%) significantly outgraded his defense (47%) while not facing a takedown attempt from his frazzled foe, who entered as a +185 underdog. In some ways despite not scoring a finish, Andre Lima's effort was significantly better.

Lima stifled Rickson Zenidim as a shorter -180 favorite from both perspectives. Lima landed 66% of his significant strikes and defended 67% of Zenidim's, converting his only takedown attempt and stuffing all four shots from his opponent. From an efficiency lens against a stronger opponent, Lima was masterful.

That's why I wasn't overly stunned to see him a decent favorite here. While Da Silva's firefight tendencies will likely see him a multi-time winner that can crush cans, Lima seems to be the far more skilled MMA fighter. Plus, he's 25 with a bit better experience when Da Silva is only 20.

On principle, I won't bet this tiny sample at a -180 moneyline, but I do think he stops this fight inside the distance.

Betting Verdict

• Da Silva's poor defensive efficiency didn't bite him on DWCS, but it very well could here. I think we got a bit of a discount on Lima's inside-the-distance prop (+155) due to his opponent's tentative effort in his UFC-affiliated debut.

DFS Verdict

• Though his opponent is dangerous, there's also tremendous upside in Lima ($18) as an MVP candidate. Finding favorites I love on this card was challenging, so Lima's name popped up my hierarchy much higher than I thought it would.

Darya Zheleznyakova vs. Montserrat Rendon

Women's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Women's 135 badly needs an injection of talent, and the #1 pro women's MMA fighter in Russia, Darya Zheleznyakova, might help.

The 28-year-old is probably still a bit green, but her 2-1 stint with a minor-league UFC affiliate, Ares FC, was a good start. Her only loss was to Melissa Dixon, a 1-0 fighter on the bantamweight roster herself. She was even dominating the striking exchanges in that one before Dixon, a better ground fighter, got the takedown she needed to secure victory.

You have to presume she's in a pretty good spot to get experience here when her opponent and the UFC vet of the two, Montserrat Rendon, has been the distance in all six of her pro fights. All are wins, too.

Yet, I couldn't help leave Rendon's UFC debut a bit underwhelmed. Against Tamires Vidal (1-1 UFC), Rendon landed just 37% of her significant strikes and defended a mere 44% of Vidal's. She used three takedowns (on five attempts) to stall out "Tratora" and earn the nod on the judges' scorecards.

Without much to work with, this fight still seems pretty easy to handicap. Zheleznyakova should be the significantly better striker at distance given how she pieced up Dixon, but Rendon's takedown efficiency could come in handy to keep the Russian on her back. Only she (and her coaches) truly know how much submission upside is there from those positions.

This reeks of a fight that we should stay away from in betting circles, but I'll back the higher-regarded prospect as a win pick.

Betting Verdict

• With minimal data, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to me if either of these women got finished in their weaker domain, yet this fight is -250 to go its full distance. I am not the one to give advice on how these regional prospects match up.

DFS Verdict

• Forced to plant my flag here, Zheleznyakova ($22) is the one I conceive to have more realistic knockout upside and will score points through significant strikes. While staying away from the MVP spot, she's not a terrible contrarian flex play in tournaments.

Steven Nguyen vs. Jarno Errens

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

The third time was the charm for Steven Nguyen on DWCS.

"The Ninja" made three appearances on the show in three different seasons, starting with a flying-knee knockout loss and ending with a vicious beating of A.J. Cunningham (0-1 UFC) to finally "impress" Dana White enough to get a contract. If you ask me, a +31 striking differential in this time should have been enough.

His massive sample for a newcomer exceeds 38 minutes in the octagon, so we've gotten a good idea of strengths -- of which there are many. Nguyen's pace (19.28 significant strikes attempted per minute) is elite for any division and parlayed with awesome striking (63%) and takedown (83%) defense to this point.

As with all DWCS alums, we're not working in the realm of "UFC winners" yet, but Jarno Errens is a soft landing spot not meeting that description. I had high hopes for the toolsy Dutchman, but he's squashed them with low-volume, uncompetitive decision losses to William Gomis (3-0 UFC) and SeungWoo Choi (4-5 UFC).

Errens has landed just 1.67 significant strikes per minute with poor accuracy (38%), and he's yet to get a takedown on six attempts. Everything seems difficult offensively with the priority on defensive survival, and Nguyen is the first opponent he'll face averaging over 10.00 significant strike attempts per minute. As mentioned, he's nearly double that.

The Fortis MMA product is my strongest win pick on Saturday's card. We've gotten so much of a sample that he's no fraud with modest durability and excellent defense. At worst, his activity will carry him here.

Betting Verdict

• I'd endorse a bet on Nguyen's moneyline (-188) at its current point. To me, he should be encroaching a -350 favorite with an extended sample of simply destroying Errens' offensive pace.
• I'm projecting the gap in offense to be so stark here that Nguyen's inside-the-distance prop (+240) and under 2.5 rounds (+134) could be contrarian angles in this fight. Jarno simply hasn't seen this pace or speed against two of 145's least voluminous strikers.

DFS Verdict

• Nguyen ($20) is my favorite MVP candidate on the card, which is a harrowing proposition when oddsmakers have the fight -132 to go the distance. This is a rough card for dominant favorites projected to win inside the distance.

Miles Johns vs. Cody Gibson

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

If you follow my tracked picks, you got this line before the movement on Sunday. Whether or not my selection was right? We shall see. Miles Johns and Cody Gibson represent, by moneyline, the second-closest fight on Saturday's card, and there is a case for both guys.

I'm optomistic for Johns moving forward because "Chapo" no longer trains at my least favorite major gym, Fortis MMA. He's now with Trey Ogden's Marathon MMA camp.

It's not like he was struggling. Johns' 5-2 UFC record is impressive and buoyed by elite striking (68%) and takedown (85%) defense that visibly flustered Dan Argueta in his most recent triumph. The downside to his game has been a lack of activity -- especially against quality opponents. His extremely low fantasy-point-per-minute rate (2.52) might best encompass that issue.

We'll really measure quality versus quantity in his fight with Cody Gibson. Gibson's performance -- not result -- earned him a spot in UFC despite losing The Ultimate Fighter finale in August, and I'm not one to argue when he had a +4 striking differential over Brad Katona (3-3 UFC). However, a broken orbital bone and 49% striking D against Katona were obvious indicators that the effort was far from flawless.

Honestly, I was surprised to see Gibson's striking D (55%) so high for a guy known for his propensity to take damage. The 37-year-old's best days are behind him, but a 71" reach at bantamweight -- similar to champion Sean O'Malley -- can be a huge issue for guys in this division. Gibson's 64% takedown D could be the signature attribute to decide this fight.

Overall, Gibson's loss to Katona has aged like milk after the Canadian's third setback in four tries outside the The Ultimate Fighter franchise. Though having carefully considered Johns' volume shortcomings, he's enough power (0.83% knockdown rate) and wrestling (1.03 takedowns per 15) to bring out some of the veteran's old warts.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Johns as 54.0% likely to win here, which came out right around the -120 value cutoff at which I nabbed him. If you missed the boat on that, I'm not really showing value now on any props.
  • The model sees this fight as 61.6% likely to go the full distance. In their combined 13 UFC fights, two pair have seen decisions 7 times.

DFS Verdict

• I'm a bit higher on Johns ($16) in this space than -150 odds for this fight to go the distance would otherwise imply. Katona's loss after beating Gibson does leave open the possibility that neither are UFC-caliber fighters, and Chapo has the power to exploit one. He's done so twice in his last four with KOs.

Ricardo Ramos vs. Julian Erosa

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

Betting Julian Erosa's chin on a given night isn't a fun task, but at least the price here factors that component.

Erosa has won five of his eight fights since returning to UFC, but all three exceptions were first-round knockouts. Waning durability behind a 47% striking defense is asking for trouble, but when he's had the opportunity to go longer in fight, he has shined.

"Juicy J" lands 6.22 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy, and his wrestling -- behind a 46% success rate -- might be even more dominant. He smothered Hakeem Dawodu (6-4 UFC) with that in his best effort to date and has added a pair of UFC submission.

This fight might come down to whether or not Ricardo Ramos can paint another masterpiece. The toolsy Brazilian is far more talented than a -0.57 SSR would imply, but he's obsessed with the highlight moment over per-minute efficiency. Ramos lands painfully few significant strikes per minute (3.21) for someone with his ability. His wrestling, landing 2.59 takedowns per 15 with 57% accuracy, has been elite, yet he was submitted last September in an effort to use it.

I love my model's forecast of this fight. It's got Ramos winning by knockout 17.3% of the time, which is anecdotally where I'd place the chances Erosa's chin can't last again. Yet, if he does, Erosa's striking volume and accuracy and considerably higher, and the grappling danger is pretty even.

Ramos' low volume might actually do Erosa a favor here. At 34, I'm not worried about Julian being "washed" as much as a usual concern of power. If he can make it to where these guys both get a bit taken off their fastball, he could look like a -400 favorite in hindsight.

Betting Verdict

• Historically, this is a great spot to back Erosa's moneyline (+138). He's 4-1 as an underdog since returning in 2020 but 1-2 as a favorite. My model projects him to win 50.3% of the time, and this price quells concerns about the obvious downside for a guy with tremendous per-minute success during this UFC stint.
• Unsurprisingly, the model's bullish outlook on Erosa correlates with length that I'm also targeting. Over 2.5 rounds is +134 in this spot, but the model sees this one going the full distance 60.1% of the time.

DFS Verdict

• Juicy J has also topped 85 FanDuel points in every win since returning, so he usually packs activity that can pay off a $12 salary when surviving. I imagine Ramos ($17) will be significantly more popular as folks target his chin again.

Trey Ogden vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Kurt Holobaugh is playing with house money.

Holobaugh, 37, won The Ultimate Fighter last fall to earn a UFC contract for a second tenure that he deserved. Losses to Thiago Moises (7-5 UFC), Raoni Barcelos (7-4 UFC), and Shane Burgos (8-3) didn't indicate Holobaugh's decline from a UFC-caliber position. He proved that submitting Austin Hubbard (3-5 UFC) in the finale.

The veteran may not have title aspirations, but a +0.45 SSR with 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes gives him a few tools to win UFC fights, and Trey Ogden isn't an overly imposing matchup to build in that direction.

Ogden, 34, has ended facing pretty brutal competition in UFC since entering in 2022. His four opponents are 13-7 against all others, but a lack of identity defines his UFC career to me. He entered with 11 of his 15 regional pro wins coming via submission yet has mustered just 0.8 attempts per 15 minutes with none converted. The end result has been inefficient striking and a desperate but unsuccessful battle to get things to the mat; he holds a meager 16% takedown accuracy.

Of course, Holobaugh's age -- and a recent trend of poor performance from TUF participants -- are concerns, but if he can't weasel by Ogden, I'm not sure who is left on 155's roster for him to potentially defeat. He figures to have a sizable striking edge over Ogden with the skills to survive -- if not thrive -- on the mat.

Betting Verdict

• I am stunned to see Ogden pull out to such a heavy favorite here given his own mediocre track record and the fact UFC almost certainly prefers Holobaugh wins his return fight. I've got Ogden at 51.2% likely to win, which is far more appropriate than -144 odds.
• This fight is -122 to go the distance on FanDuel; I've got it at -245 (71.1% implied odds). Ogden's durability against others does aid his case to survive an aging yet surging Holobaugh, who has seen four of his last five with UFC end early.
  • Rather than a winner, I'll focus on this fight's total.

DFS Verdict

• I need value plays this week, and Holobaugh ($15) is a nice candidate. I'm expecting him to win inside the distance 18.7% of the time compared to 10.2% for Ogden.

Fernando Padilla vs. Luis Pajuelo

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

One fight flipped my opinion of Fernando Padilla on a dime.

Typically, that's not a great process, but when 85.6% of his UFC sample came via that one bout, it makes more sense. Padilla, faced with Kyle Nelson (3-4-1 UFC) in a proverbial layup at Noche UFC last September, laid a total egg. Due to fatigue, Padilla landed 72 significant strikes with wretched 34% accuracy, losing a unanimous decision with a -10 differential. Padilla's 101-second knockout of the aforementioned, chinny Erosa seemed like a total fluke.

The loss did give "El Valiente" a -0.30 SSR and 15 valuable minutes of experience, but there was a definite crossroads whether or not to take Luis Pajuelo in this fight as a result.

Pajuelo, debuting off DWCS, certainly accomplished good work there as a +152 underdog. He landed 9.15 significant strikes per minute with excellent accuracy (61%) and defense (62%) before a flying-knee KO. Of course, that leaves the same questions (and possibility) as Padilla's debut had.

If this were a close line, I'd really have to consider Padilla's experience against the Peruvian's sparkling peripherals. However, the native of Mexico is a -170 favorite after handily losing in all phases to Nelson -- a guy I barely think has staying power himself. This is a clear 'dog-or-pass spot, and I didn't pass.

Betting Verdict

• I bet (and tracked) Pajuelo's moneyline (+138) at +140 on Tuesday, but anything north of +110 will do. Whatever risk comes of backing his small sample outweighs the risk of laying chalk with Padilla after a disgraceful second effort.
• Pajuelo has finished 6 of his 7 pro wins, and Padilla has finished 13 of 15. Watching the underdog's fighting style, I just don't know how someone wouldn't capitalize in the form of a huge punch within his constant, pressuring exchanges. This fight seems appropriately -166 to not go the distance.

DFS Verdict

• The underdog's tremendous pace on DWCS reminds me of Danny Silva, who paid off a $13 salary, last week. Pajuelo ($12) is a similar pressure fighter facing an up-and-down veteran.

Billy Quarantillo vs. Youssef Zalal

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

UFC, quietly and in dire circumstances, can occasionally admit their mistakes. Cutting Youssef Zalal was one of them.

"The Moroccan Devil" lost four straight UFC bouts -- all by tight decisions -- to fighters that went on to become multi-time UFC winners themselves. One (Ilia Topuria) is even the undefeated champion at the moment. Zalal clearly has the skills to belong in UFC.

He's posted a decent striking accuracy (47%) and defense (63%) given the competition, and the Factory X fighter's signature trait is his chain wrestling, averaging 2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes with a decent success rate (31%). While he may not be the flashiest finisher on the roster, he can get the job done.

The promotion hasn't really done him any favors with Billy Quarantillo in this short-notice return, though. "Billy Q" is a fan favorite due to his unrelenting offense, landing 7.71 significant strikes per minute with really nice efficiency (51%). A seemingly endless resevoir of energy allowed him to blitz through multi-time winners like Gabriel Benitez, Kyle Nelson, and Alexander Hernandez. Quarantillo is 0-2 inside the UFC rankings, but he's a true gatekeeper.

Quarantillo entered the promotion at 30 years old and is now 35, so we've likely seen the best of him, but his bugaboo to this point -- power strikes like a knee from Edson Barboza that landed flush -- isn't really what Zalal offers. Quarantillo's takedown defense (63%) and rate of sub attempts per 15 minutes (1.2) are both higher than Zalal's, so I -- nor my model -- am quite sure that Youssef will be dictating wrestling exchanges. We know he'll likely be behind in the striking department.

I wasn't surprised to end up backing Quarantillo here. He's been a model favorite and has cashed a moneyline ticket in nearly every bout outside the rankings.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Billy as a -165 favorite compared to Quarantillo's -122 moneyline on FanDuel. It can be scary to fade line movement, but other bettors could have done us a favor here.
• A Youssef Zalal fight has never ended inside the full 15 minutes, so combined with Quarantillo's mixed bag, the model has this one 63.8% likely to see its full duration.

DFS Verdict

• Even despite concerns about an early finish, Billy Q's pace usually leaves him in the MVP mix. I'll pass at the multiplier with respect to Zalal's defense and durability, but he's a fine flex play at $15.

Payton Talbott vs. Cameron Saaiman

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

For the second week in a row, a superstar matchup of prospects made the main card and divided MMA betting circles.

Payton Talbott and Cameron Saaiman could both fit the description, along with Raul Rojas Jr., of the "next big thing" at 135. Matching them up so soon is an intriguing choice.

Talbott has edged out to a decent favorite in this spot, and there's plenty to like with him. He aced DWCS with 145 significant strikes in a beatdown of his opponent, but he admittedly disappointed in his second effort. The Vegas native dropped the first round to Nick Aguirre (0-2 UFC) before Aguirre's fatigue (and poor striking) forced him to fall right into the grasp of Talbott, who secured his first career submission.

At this point, I profile him to be a successful high-volume striker, but a 51% striking accuracy and defense through two appearances -- against guys that aren't UFC winners -- isn't great efficiency. Plus, he's shown no offensive wrestling or grappling despite an 88% takedown D that implies he trains it.

It's crazy Saaiman's standing as a high-level prospect might be at risk with a loss here, having only suffered defeat to an over-the-weight-limit Christian Rodriguez (4-1 UFC) at this stage. He's still just 23 years old after a UFC debut at 21.

The South African finished three of his first four UFC-afffiliated bouts before Rodriguez and had a dominant +57 striking differential in the other. Though "CeeRod" hurt his efficiency, "MSP" has a +2.04 SSR and has added enough wrestling (1.00 takedowns per 15) with a decent success rate (36%) to keep you honest in all phases of MMA.

Last week as Rodriguez battled Isaac Dulgarian, this exact same line movement took place. The less-tested prospect bloomed to a huge favorite and disappointed. Talbott's two long-distance efforts all but assure Saaiman should be around for a while in this one, and he's more well-rounded with superior experience in those waters to this point.

After learning my lesson last Saturday when picking the favorite, I'm taking the 'dog.

Betting Verdict

• Talbott's non-existent power and last fight -- a life-or-death scrap with Nick Aguirre -- makes laying this sort juice with him to win borderline irresponsible. The movement behind it forced Saaiman's moneyline (+118) onto my betting card when this is a pick 'em fight if I've ever seen one.
• The favorite is undefeated, which always ambiguity to betting a total without a "routine" way of defeat being established. Considering Saaiman's only pro loss came in a decision, I'm not surprised this fight is -174 to go the full distance.

DFS Verdict

• At comparable salaries in a fight projected with distance, I believe both Talbott ($17) and Saaiman ($13) are viable in this area. Saaiman would almost certainly be the plug of the two to be had if he comes out on top, though.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. AJ Dobson

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Edmen Shahbazyan is 26 years old, so there's no extreme urgency to win here. Yet, it would certainly help.

"The Golden Boy" has dropped four of his last five fights, but all losses have come to fighters currently ranked or that left UFC that way. It's a weird dynamic where you have to respect his skills but also acknowledge the obvious shortcomings. Shahbazyan's striking volume (3.46 significant strikes per minute) and defense (43%) are way too low, and he's struggled badly with cardiovascular endurance, fading noticeably beyond the first round in every single setback.

The hope for him here is the level of competition. Edmen is 4-0 in UFC facing a fighter who never found the rankings compared to 1-4 in fights with foes who did. AJ Dobson absolutely needs a win here if he ever wants to enter the latter category.

Dobson's first two UFC matchups with Jacob Malkoun (3-3 UFC) and Armen Petrosyan (4-2 UFC) were pretty brutal for someone who is more well-rounded than special. Nonetheless, he got his first win over Tafon Nchukwi (2-4 UFC) last time out.

It's tough to tell what the Ohioan truly excels at, but he's proven to be insanely durable and not finished by those three -- or any of his nine pro opponents. Dobson's -0.87 SSR might be a bit misleading when he's won the distance striking differential in two of three, but his striking (47%) and takedown (64%) defense can only be described as beatable.

Though I'd favor Edmen in this matchup, there are inarguable paths for Dobson. He's the more voluminous striker with modest takedown D, and he could look like a -500 favorite if Shahbazyan's gas tank shuts off around the eight-minute mark again.

I'd make this line a bit closer.

Betting Verdict

• Shahbazyan is getting bumped here for strength of schedule, but he hasn't actually won the fights. My model picks him to win 56.1% of the time, but that leaves no betting value on his moneyline.
  • I do show value on Shahbazyan's decision prop (+310), though. My model has it at +190.
• I've got this fight at 58.6% likely to see all 15 minutes, which is a testament to Dobson's three-fight streak of decisions. A longer fight certainly favors him.
  • My three bets in this fight expecting length will be Edmen's points prop with small hedges on Dobson's round-two prop (+1300) and round-three prop (+1900).

DFS Verdict

• Shahbazyan would need to be the first to finish Dobson ($22) inside the distance, but I just don't see him on a superior plane to his previous three opponents. Punt to the underdog for salary savings.

Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

As the universe lauds the #TafaGang after Justin Tafa's brother, Junior, stepped in on a day's notice for his injured brother at UFC 298, I'm hoping they continue to regress to the mean.

Junior was knocked out in the second round at that card after a first-round grappling lesson, and I wasn't surprised at all. Both Junior and Justin are simply modern-day heavyweight gladiators. All of their five combined wins have been slugfests decided in less than two minutes. If their power doesn't get the job done, the lack of skill is pretty hard to watch. Take Justin's -0.80 SSR -- combined with non-functional grappling skills -- as a good example.

Heavyweight power is always the risk for Karl Williams' approach, but if he can withstand it once more, expect another dominant victory. The Atlanta native averages 4.00 takedowns per 15 minutes with modest 46% accuracy, and his last fight was an impressive statement of well-roundedness. He topped Chase Sherman at distance behind a +19 striking differential, leaving him with a sparkling +2.40 SSR overall.

As a ground fighter, it's interesting Williams has no pro wins via submission. It's tough to say if that's a lack of skill -- which isn't really required for a rear-naked choke if I can sink one in -- or just a lack of opportunity, which the proudly inept Tafa could certainly provide. If not, vicious ground-and-pound elbows could do the trick anyway.

I have a simple rule with the Tafas. I'll consider betting either of them when they win a fight outside of the first round. It hasn't happened yet, so Williams -- with significant skill advantages -- was an easy choice.

Betting Verdict

• Personally, sharper angles than Williams' -192 moneyline exist when this is such a binary outcome. Not short on toughness, Justin Tafa has went the distance in two of his three UFC losses, so it's intriguing to see Williams' decision prop (+190) so distant.
  • Logically, the total on this fight has to be short because of Tafa, but if his win condition doesn't prevail, Williams has been the full distance in both fights. It's somewhat of a catch-22 situation for oddsmakers.

DFS Verdict

• By default, I've got to put Williams ($21) in the MVP mix. If you can't tell, I'm not enthralled with any candidate this week, so it helps that he's been such a good fantasy scorer (85.4 FanDuel points per fight) without a finish yet. Tafa, a fish out of water on the ground, could easily provide his first.

Rose Namajunas vs. Amanda Ribas

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

Both of these ladies have fought within the top five at 115 pounds, so size likely isn't a huge factor for both at 125 pounds like it normally is as they gyrate between divisions.

With that the case, it'll be interesting to see if the former strawweight queen, Rose Namajunas, still has a run in her. Namajunas' flyweight debut against the undefeated Manon Fiorot was pretty underwhelming, landing just 60 significant strikes in 15 minutes -- and none of true note -- to lose a unanimous decision in Paris.

I've always struggled with "Thug Rose" even at the apex of her UFC run. Namajunas' 40% striking accuracy is low and inconsistent, which is why I wasn't stunned at all by the infamous worst title fight in UFC history with Carla Esparza. She landed just 30 significant strikes in 25 minutes. Plus, I don't think her decent wrestling (1.49 takedowns per 15) will be of service in this fight -- and against larger women at flyweight in general.

That starts with Amanda Ribas' 87% takedown D, which has never ceded multiple in one fight. In conjunction with the Brazilian's 63% striking D, this is one of the trickiest matchups to land offense in all of women's MMA. It required one-punch offense from Marina Rodriguez and unmatched physicality from Maycee Barber at 125 pounds to find her chin and defeat her; Ribas has bested all seven others.

Normally, Ribas' own drawback is her efficiency (42%) on 10.48 significant strikes attempt per minute, but notch the volume and efficiency columns in her direction in this matchup. If it were to hit the mat, the black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu has two wins via submission to Namajunas' three; I'm expecting that aspect to be fairly even.

Though this main event lacks star power, it should be competitive. I'd slightly favor Ribas, making for an obvious 'dog shot to close the night.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Ribas at 52.8% likely to win this fight, so any sort of plus money was an easy decision. Namajunas has gone to a split decision in three of her last five fights, so laying -225 seems insane.
• I'm in line with oddsmakers expecting the fight to go the distance at a hefty clip (71.5%). I'd place Ribas' inside-the-distance prop at +675 when it's +380 on FanDuel, resigning me to the Ribas' moneyline (+180) and her decision prop (+460) only.

DFS Verdict

• At an extremely low salary for a five-round fight and expecting her to win, Ribas ($11) was an easy choice here.
  • The only time Rose has topped 85 FanDuel points since the start of 2019 was the first-round head kick of Weili Zhang (8-2 UFC) that proved a bit fluky in the rematch.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.