UFC Vegas 84: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC Vegas 84: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Josh Van vs. Felipe Bunes

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

Josh Van is on every UFC prospect watchlist you can find, so stepping in on short notice to risk that status against Felipe Bunes is certainly the attitude of a warrior.

Van has taken out a division veteran (Zhalgas Zhumagulov) and division rookie (Kevin Borjas) in two appearances to this point, but the common theme has been unreal striking. He's posted a +3.27 striking success rate (SSR) with elite striking accuracy (51%) and defense (63%) marks for the division. Van's 87% takedown D has also kept the fight where he could best win it.

Bunes should be a fresh test for him from the perspective of submission danger. The 34-year-old LFA vet has seen 8 of his 13 pro victories come via submission when his previous two opponents had just 1 victory by submission total. There should be valid concern that the takedown attempts and grappling advances from Bunes, who trains with Bellator's Pitbull brothers, are a step up for Van that the 22-year-old may not have the experience to stop.

You rarely see prospects get this UFC call on a losing skid, but Bunes has greater lost four of his last seven with the most signature win a sub-two-minute (fluky?) knockout in his last fight over a year ago. The layoff is due to a drug suspension shortly after signing with UFC.

It's extremely odd Van isn't a larger favorite, but he's on short notice without much of a good reason why he took this matchup. Personally, there's no way the prospect has his game entirely rounded out at this stage, and his first two opponents had a combined 1-8 UFC record. It's 'dog or pass here despite how much I love Van in the long run.

Betting Verdict

• The lone wager I'm making in this fight is Bunes' submission prop (+500). A grappling-heavy gameplan is his only path to win without controversy, and it's where Van is relatively untested to this stage.
• This fight is -176 to go the distance, but I'd assign Bunes a vast majority of the finishing potential. Van has yet to land a knockdown among 276 significant strikes.

DFS Verdict

• As the lone fighter at $18, Van should carry a ton of popularity with a high floor, but there is a potential buzzsaw here if Bunes comes out with the correct gameplan. I prefer a dart at the underdog, Bunes ($12).

Tom Nolan vs. Nikolas Motta

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) is UFC's main source of talent, and we'll see a pair of heavy favorites on this card from last summer's season.

Tom Nolan is one of those from the very first DWCS card of 2023. Nolan flattened Bogdan Grad with a left hook in the first round to earn a UFC contract, creating some laughable statistics like a +7.95 SSR. Nolan hails from Queensland, Australia and amassed a 6-0 pro record down under with four knockouts. There just isn't a lot of a UFC measuring stick at this point outside of an electric punch.

Therefore, as many of these debutant bouts become, it's more about projecting his success into a known quantity. Nikolas Motta is known -- but not necessarily in great fashion.

Motta's lone UFC win came at the hands of Cameron VanCamp (0-2) in a flash knockout of his own, but he's been finished in all three of his other bouts. Motta's last "no contest" was a refereeing mistake about a potential submission, but Trey Ogden earned that sub to our eyeballs if not a box score.

The Brazilian veteran has minimal grappling skills, so he's likely delighted that Nolan will trade on the feet, but that hasn't been a safe place for Motta, either. He's posted a -1.96 SSR with a dreadful 30% striking accuracy. He's got power, but the efficiency is totally lacking.

Nolan will have a three-inch reach edge, and Motta would garner my vote as the single worst lightweight left on the roster. He's likely done with a loss on Saturday, and this smells like UFC building a potential star in one of its fastest growing markets.

Betting Verdict

• Nolan has ostensibly earned four straight first-round stoppages, and Motta has one on his UFC record. This could be a quick night at the office, but I'd rather turn to the general knockout prop (-195) in lieu of predicting a specific round. First-fight jitters are real.
• This fight is appropriately -1100 to not go the distance when a Motta fight hasn't to this stage. Nolan fired 17.41 significant strike attempts per minute in his first bout, and that type of aggression leads to a finish.

DFS Verdict

• There's nothing truly "safe" on this Apex card anywhere, but Nolan ($20) has the right combination of volume, finishing upside, and striking-based style to be a traditional MVP candidate from our process. It's scary to call him the best MVP candidate on the board.

Jean Silva vs. Westin Wilson

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

I'm cynical to a fault of UFC's last-minute signings, but the Westin Wilson one was something I'll never forget.

Surging featherweight Joanderson Brito needed a fight, and Wilson was tabbed as the replacement despite his last three regional victories coming over foes a combined 21-33 professionally. As a "submission ace", Wilson was controlled for all but 46 seconds of their bout, which ended via a ground-and-pound KO. Wilson's 26% striking D was horrid.

The lone argument for him was that Brito has won and largely dominated five of his six UFC bouts. A lopsided result against Brito doesn't necessarily disqualify him from being a UFC fighter, and his size (6'1") and reach (73") are tremendous for his division.

He'll look to fare better against DWCS newcomer Jean Silva, who posted a nice decision win as a +180 underdog to Argentina's Kevin Vallejos on the show. Silva's +1.07 SSR was solid, and he landed one of three takedown attempts. The problem is we don't really know Vallejos' quality as an opponent relative to the UFC standard.

Luckily, Wilson is likely below it. The 22-year-old Vallejos is an 11-1 prospect that still on the promotion's radar, and Wilson just wasn't fighting close to the same level of competition in the U.S.

These prohibitive odds exist because Wilson's UFC prospects aren't very bright. I'm in agreement there. I won't be putting money around this fight if I don't have to, though.

Betting Verdict

• This section could be as short as "no", but two low-level fighters without a UFC track record at this wide of an odds split? There's just no value here.

DFS Verdict

• Silva's standing as a -950 favorite and -550 favorite to win inside the distance makes him impossible to ignore in this front, but he did just post 78.2 FanDuel points in his DWCS appearance. With uneasiness, he's an MVP candidate at $22, too.

Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

You're seven-for-seven (plus a no contest) blindly selecting "Basharat" on a sportsbook in the brothers' UFC appearances thus far, but you'll want to at least put considerable thought into Farid Basharat's step up in competition here.

Basharat's first three UFC-affiliated appearances came against opponents with a 4-5-1 UFC-affiliated record, but it's still noteworthy that "Ferocious" Farid hasn't put a foot out of place thus far. His 63% striking accuracy, 58% striking D, 53% takedown efficiency, and 83% takedown D are all stellar, and he added a submission finish in his last bout against former flyweight Kleydson Rodrigues.

Taylor Lapilus is a known step up in competition just by record, sitting 4-1 amidst his second UFC stint that started last fall with a win in Paris over newcomer Caolan Loughran. Though not quite as accurate as a striker (47%), Lapilus' 62% striking defense and 81% takedown defense have been exceptional in this 135-pound division, too. "Double Impact" has won six fights in a row with three -- Loughran notwithstanding -- coming via an early finish.

Farid and Javid Basharat (4-0 UFC) have gone to a decision in five of seven fights with the only two wins via finish coming against active 125-pounders. I've been concerned about their ability to cover a lofty moneyline like this as they continue to escalate up the rankings, and Lapilus' phenomenal defensive efficiency only worries those concerns.

I told myself on Monday that if this line didn't move despite obvious attention to the undefeated surname, I would be on Lapilus. From -295 to -290 on Friday, it largely hasn't. The Frenchman should be in this fight with a chance to win it.

Betting Verdict

• I'll fire a half-unit at Lapilus' moneyline. The -220 odds that go the distance imply a competitive fight, and we don't have to think too hard about the value side in this fight when the Basharats' bubble seems to be a bit more vulnerable to pop with each passing fight.

DFS Verdict

• If there's not an explosive finish projected on this card packed with lopsided bouts, we'll largely want to get our value plays from there. Lapilus ($11) is not only responsible enough to see the end of this fight, but don't discount his ability to win it.

Marcus McGhee vs. Gaston Bolanos

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

As I've aged in this profession, I largely back gyms over fighters. Smart gameplans are worth their weight in gold. The MMA Lab in Phoenix, home of Sean O'Malley's rise, is one I don't fade too often.

That's where Marcus McGhee trains, which is how I've backed him in both of his first two UFC appearances. McGhee has answered the call with early finishes -- one each by knockout and submission -- in both. He's really showed no weaknesses with a 77% striking defense and 100% takedown D to this stage.

However, as I'll say for every prelim fight on this card, it's the level of competition that's the concern. His first two foes were 1-8 with a no contest and have since been cut from UFC. I opened the door to Gaston Bolanos because of that, but Bolanos didn't exactly make any sort of statement in his debut, either.

Last April, Bolanos closed around a -175 favorite over Aaron Phillips (0-4 UFC) but didn't look like it. He ceded 6:03 in control time to Phillips and barely eked out a decision win. Phillips entered off a near-three-year layoff, too.

Gaston's 40% takedown D was his key weakness in that one, and McGhee hasn't attempted one. That's likely the genesis for this matchup. McGhee hasn't shown wrestling prowess to make this fight completely one-sided.

It's still hard for me to not take "The Maniac". These two have nearly identical striking accuracies, but Bolanos' defense (56%) is nearly 20 percentage points worse to this point. Plus, McGhee's prior submission implies wrestling and grappling skill he's just chosen not to use at this stage.

He's a worthy favorite, but don't be surprised if these bantamweights throw down in a competitive striking affair.

Betting Verdict

• From a betting perspective, McGhee is probably still overvalued at a -235 price tag, but I saw nothing from a weakness perspective for Bolanos' path to win. He'll just have to be a better striker, and I'm pessimistic.
• Two of Bolanos' three losses have come via submission, and McGhee has one in UFC already. Other books have Marcus' submission prop way shorter than +310, so consider it a belated Christmas gift from FanDuel.

DFS Verdict

• McGhee ($19) has the significantly better striking stats and all of this fight's grappling upside. I really considered Bolanos edging out a decision here, but most of its upside to be a high-scoring DFS fight lies with the favorite.

Matthew Semelsberger vs. Preston Parsons

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

We'll see what pressure that "Pressure" can put on a credential member of the 170-pound roster.

Preston Parsons wears that alliterative nickname, and he's looking to cement his roster spot with a huge win here. I'll be the first to admit that going the distance with Trevin Giles (7-5 UFC) was a surprising result and the best of his career, but that's largely an indictment of the rest of the sample. Parsons lost via first-round KO to formerly ranked welterweight Daniel Rodriguez, and he mowed through Evan Elder (1-2 UFC), who now fights at 155.

He'll square off with "Semi the Jedi", who I'd sooner nickname "Semitruck". Semelsberger's massive 2.39% knockdown rate has earned him a pair of UFC knockouts and several marquee wins amidst a 5-4 tenure with the promotion. His four losses have come to opponents a combined 25-11 with UFC themselves, and it gets crazier; he dropped three of the four with knockdowns, meaning a less patient referee could have swung several of these close calls in his direction.

In theory, Parsons has a path here. He averages 9.42 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and lands enough of them to potentially exploit Semelsberger's 40% takedown D that's weak on paper.

However, it's as lopsided in the other direction. Semelsberger's power should mow through Parsons' 49% striking defense for as long as this fight is standing.

There's variance in whether Semi can make his moments on the feet truly count, but Parsons' resumé in or out of UFC is not close to those that have bested Semelsberger. His pre-UFC competition was dreadful, and Elder was in the wrong weight class.

Unlike Josh Van earlier, I believe there's a quality reason that the favorite took this fight on short notice.

Betting Verdict

• Especially on short notice, I expect that Semelsberger puts plenty of equity into stopping this fight early. I'll play a first-round knockout prop (+400) to avoid any of the ugliness that might ensue if his cardio or wrestling defense aren't quite on point. Stranger things have happened.

DFS Verdict

• Especially at close salaries in the mid-range, I have to back Semelsberger ($17) in this spot with obvious first-round upside. I don't trust Parsons' resumé to win -- or his style to score on FanDuel.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Andrei Arlovski

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

At 44 years old, I wish Andrei Arlovski rode off into the sunset 18 months ago, but it is undeniably impressive the heavyweight champion in 2006 is still going. UFC's tenure-based pay system has a lot to do with it.

Arlovski has suffered back-to-back early finishes after a post-COVID-break stretch where he won six of seven fights. Some were by controversial split decision, but the Belarusian fighter has a clear gameplan to play things slow at distance and attempt to mitigate damage behind a 57% striking defense. He's exclusively a striker at this point, too. His last takedown came in 2018, and his last submission came before Barack Obama's first presidency in 2008. Woof.

This fight has a clear and obvious outcome in favor of "Salsa Boy", Waldo Cortes-Acosta. The former kickboxing great is 4-1 to start his UFC career with the exception coming by decision, and he's coasted through ideal matchups -- like this one -- that haven't exactly tested his lack of grappling acumen.

With his 60% takedown D not in any danger against "Pitbull" Arlovski, WCA can go to work behind a +2.91 SSR, 6.97 significant strikes landed per minute, and a modest 52% striking defense. I had questions about his power, but knocking out Lukasz Brzeski in 121 seconds answered quite a few of those.

From a win equity perspective, this one has no drama. At worst, Cortes-Acosta's distance pace is much better, and Arlovski hasn't won by knockout since 2015. His power is gone.

The only question is if Arlovski's defense will help him see the end of the fight, and that's plausible. Cortes-Acosta saw the judges' cards in three of his first four bouts. I still just can't help notice the downward trajectory from Arlovski and wonder if -- mercifully -- this is it.

Betting Verdict

• A prior version of Arlovski might have neutralized Cortes-Acosta's power, but the raw volume from Salsa Boy is the concern. He landed at least 73 significant strikes on his three foes pre-Brzeski. With mixed feelings, Cortes-Acosta's line to win by knockout or decision (-550) is a tremendous parlay leg, but I don't know how else to bet this fight.

DFS Verdict

• Cortes-Acosta ($21) actually carries plenty of risk in DFS. Arlovski's durability is fading, but WCA's acceptance to play at distance could mean a low-scoring win by decision into Pitbull's plus striking D. I think he's a fine flex play, but I'll pass at MVP.

Brunno Ferreira vs. Phil Hawes

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Brunno Ferreira lived by the short notice upset, and he unfortunately also died to it.

Ferreira's upset nearly 12 months ago -- a first-round KO of Gregory Rodrigues (5-2 UFC) -- took the Brazilian from the fringes of the roster to an upstart contender, but that status also unraveled as he lost in a similar fashion to Nursulton Ruziboev in Ruziboev's debut. Instead, there's maximum urgency in this middleweight bout with Phil Hawes.

Brunno's profile looks exactly like someone who'd be prone to these results. His striking pace (10.92 significant strikes attempted per minute) and accuracy (53%) are excellent, but his 47% striking D leaves plenty to chance within this heavier weight class. Ferreira's 50% takedown D is also a bit of a concern when Ruziboev landed one with ease.

Hawes is the far more experienced fighter, having gone the full distance twice in seven UFC appearances to Ferreira's handful of minutes. The names he's lost to -- Ikram Aliskerov, Roman Dolidze, and Chris Curtis -- are all top-20 middleweights, as well. With that in mind, Hawes' +1.85 SSR is extremely impressive, and he's posted 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes with modest 36% accuracy on the attempts.

This fight is +540 to go the distance because "The Hulk" Ferreira has fought with reckless abandon, but we'll see if his first career loss slows the pace down at all.

It would probably do him a disservice. A more measured Ferreira is almost certainly losing to Hawes given the defensive concerns and five-inch reach disadvantage if this fight improbably went the distance. "No Hype" Hawes' three UFC losses are all by first-round knockout, and his chin -- not a 55% striking defense -- is his greatest weakness.

Yet, we've seen this dynamic play out in both of these fighters' brief careers. Welcome to the most volatile environment on Saturday's card.

Betting Verdict

• Hawes is simply the better fighter everywhere from an efficiency and volume perspective, but his durability concerns explain the line as is. Without definitive, sure-fire proof that Ferreira possesses the automatic power to best him, I'll take the 'dog at +108.
• Both of these fighters are coming off violent, quick knockout losses. This is a system I'll be trying and tracking in 2024, but I like cheeky, small wagers at this fight to go the distance (+540) and Hawes' decision prop (+850) on the basis of some cold feet after the setbacks.

DFS Verdict

• This is a volatile fight where Ferreira ($16) will be tremendously popular, but I feel like the better fighter is also the value play at $15. I'll take my chances his shaky chin prevails.

Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

Bantamweight is loaded -- as evidenced by this fight impossibly taking place outside of the rankings.

Ricky Simon has always been seen as a one-dimensional, powerhouse wrestler, and we realized the ceiling of that in his last bout with Song Yadong. Yadong, a top-10-ranked fighter, won a rout at distance by knockout after stuffing seven of Simon's nine takedown attempts. Against lesser foes, he's posted 5.84 takedowns per 15 with excellent 50% accuracy, and his 62% striking defense on its own is excellent. The shortcomings came from his offense, which wholistically is landing just 3.01 significant strikes per minute with so-so efficiency (44%).

Of course, he's still really good. He's favored over Mario Bautista despite Bautista winning five in a row. Mario last won a tight decision against Da'Mon Blackshear (2-2-1 UFC) in August on short notice. Bautista is likely the better striker of these two (+1.12 SSR) with far more submission danger. He's posted 1.3 sub attempts per 15 minutes with three of his last four wins coming in that fashion. He trains at the MMA Lab in Phoenix with the previously mentioned O'Malley and McGhee in this weight class, as well.

You really can't get far previewing this fight before the uncomfortable truth. Blackshear just took Bautista down four times on seven attempts, leaving his previously untested takedown D at 56% entering this bout with Simon -- a takedown savant. That's a huge problem.

However, Bautista also showed grappling chops of his own by outcontrolling Blackshear (4:04 in total time), and Simon's shown inconsistency in that area besides takedowns. He's posted just 0.40 submission attempts per 15 with an unsustainable 75% conversion rate.

These two resumés are also incredibly bloated. Both padded wins on Brian Kelleher (8-8 UFC), but they otherwise only have one win each over a fighter still on UFC's roster in their last six appearances. There's been so much can-crushing that it's hard to discern exactly how they matchup in this elo of bantamweight.

At the end of the day, I couldn't pass on Bautista from my model's verdict. Simon's moneyline was -166 on Monday, but now at -188, I have to fade this line movement -- and think I'm justified doing so when Ricky has very few tools to finish high-level bantamweights beyond raw strength.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Bautista at -130 to win. It's justifying that via striking efficiency and a history of submission danger, and I feel like Simon's wrestling was a concern at a shorter number, but Mario actually carries the finishing upside with a price tag up to +152 to win.
• Interestingly, the model has this fight 53.9% likely to end early, so the fight to not go the distance (+118) in either direction might be the better bet. I agree; Simon's strength likely wins in dominant fashion, or he's potentially made a costly mistake.

DFS Verdict

• Simon ($17) already has an unsustainable conversion rate of submissions, and it's really the one path I could see him finishing this one. Bautista ($13) has a variety of knees and submission attempts that will keep him fantasy-relevant throughout the entire fight.

Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Jim Miller has his sights set on UFC 300 after appearances at UFC 100 and UFC 200, but he'll have this tune-up first.

Miller's late-career resurgence is similar to Arlovski's before this recent skid, and at 40 years old, he's at the age where "Pitbull" was still surging. "A-10" Miller has won four of his last five fights, but in the name of total transparency, his four wins have come over opponents a combined 1-10 with UFC since the COVID break. He's absolutely crushed cans and entry-level fighters.

Still, the veteran has 11 submission wins with UFC and is still averaging 1.8 attempts per 15 minutes. That's his preferred path when landing just 2.86 significant strikes per minute, and some of his personal post-COVID setbacks have come ceding takedowns behind a poor 48% defense.

With that in mind, Gabriel Benitez is a fascinating choice at this point for him. At 35 years old, Benitez has lost four of his last six, but all of his defeats have come to fighters with at least three UFC wins. It's a credential group, but his last three wins have also come over guys that have a combined 3-15 UFC record. It's either been losing to a solid fighter or mopping a non-UFC-caliber one.

Benitez averages just 0.54 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, so it's plausible he looks to stand while Miller (3.63 takedown attempts per 15 minutes) looks to get this where he can win it. "Moggly" has just a 58% takedown D, but I'd also favor his +0.74 SSR at distance to Miller's -0.22 rate.

The problem for Benitez is that he's surrendered knockouts in three of his last four losses, so he's not safe anywhere in this fight. Miller's struggles have largely come defending wrestling -- a skill Benitez doesn't have. This line moved from -113 to -152 in Miller's direction this week, and it's easy to see why.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Benitez as 52.3% likely to win this bout, but I'm passing. This is just Benitez's second fight at 155 pounds with existing chin concerns, so I'm not sure how far per-minute efficiency gets him in this spot.
• FanDuel Sportsbook has this fight 73.3% implied to end early, and my model concurs. It's giving the bout a 65.2% chance to end before the final bell. With no value to bet, don't be surprised if this one sees the cards.

DFS Verdict

• Projecting him to win at identical salaries, I suppose I'd lean Miller ($16) in this spot, but a wrestling-heavy approach could produce a fantasy dud. I'm most uncertain about this fight than any other on the card.

Manel Kape vs. Matheus Nicolau

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

Flyweight is always ripe for rematches near the top of the rankings, but I'm not sure betting lines will get much stranger for one than this.

Matheus Nicolau defeated Manel Kape by split decision in March 2021 shortly after Kape came to the UFC. Nearly every media member scored the fight for Kape, but Manel's +6 significant strike differential didn't offset Nicolau's two takedowns, submission attempt, and 2:31 in control time to a point where I'd call it a "robbery". It was a close fight.

Now, "Starboy" is a -290 favorite in the rematch, and I think it's a classic overreaction to both's recent results. Since that bout, Kape has four wins over fighters a combined 8-14 with UFC, and only David Dvorak (14th) was ranked. Kape's last bout was a full-length decision with a newcomer; I remain underwhelmed for someone who supposedly has title aspirations.

Meanwhile, Nicolau collected wins over 9th-ranked Matt Schnell and 10th-ranked Tim Elliott before meeting with Brandon Royval, who some may remember challenged for this division's belt on UFC's last card in December. Royval landed a flying knee on Nicolau that, while spectacular, likely produced a fluky result.

Nicolau's losses inside the distance have come on that knee and a remarkable head kick in 2018; he's usually one of the most durable fighters with the best striking (66%) and takedown (93%) defense in the division's rankings.

Kape's track record to this stage has been absolutely crushing unranked competition, but he's gone the distance with all three ranked fighters -- and done so with far less sizzle. He may prevail in this rematch, but there's no doubt where the betting value lies.

Betting Verdict

• As my largest disagreement with oddsmakers of the week, I've got Nicolau at 57.3% to win this rematch. Not only was he close enough to win the first bout, but he's also added better wins with better efficiency since that bout. My lack of film acumen really makes me puzzled as to what most see in Kape as his efficiency and results are just alright.
• The recent finishing binges for both -- in one direction or another -- has this fight modeled at 63.3% to not see its full distance. It would not be surprising to see a more lopsided result as these fighters adjust to previous experience.

DFS Verdict

• Kape ($19) is a dangerous fade as a heavy favorite, but I am taking a stand with my model and Nicolau ($11) as the value play from this fight. If nothing else, a similar result to the first fight would make him the optimal side to target in DFS.

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

This is the rare main event where we're not looking to solve who the better overall MMA fighter is. We know that's Magomed Ankalaev. We're just looking to see if Johnny Walker can lean into vintage Johnny Walker variance and pull a one-time upset.

The enigmatic Walker is one of UFC's most odd personalities and fighters. At 6'6" with an 82" reach, Walker would be a massive heavyweight but reliably makes 205 pounds, and his rise up the rankings was started by four KOs to begin his career. Amidst setbacks against better technical fighters, Walker's danger and power -- like knocking out Paul Craig with one foot on the ground in 2023 -- are still prevalent, but he's shown a bit of an evolution to submit Ion Cutelaba and post a +54 striking differential against Anthony Smith, a top-10 light heavyweight, in a full decision.

However, Walker's defense is still pretty terrible. A 45% striking defense and 57% takedown defense are fully exploitable. Ankalaev is a heavy favorite on that status with a much higher defensive rating when striking (58%) and defending takedowns (86%).

Magomed has just usually found a way to throw his advantages aside from a results perspective, though. Ankalaev has been to a decision in four of his last five fights with the only exception when Smith's leg broke in their meeting. He attempts just 6.85 significant strikes per minute, so it is hard to pull away with such low volume offensively.

Of course, I've buried the lede. This fight initially happened in October 2023, and but 193 seconds into the fight, Ankalaev hit Walker with an illegal grounded knee, and the ringside doctor in Abu Dhabi stopped the fight because Walker didn't know what country he was in -- and still didn't when the cobwebs cleared because cage fighters usually aren't geography experts. Hence, UFC scheduled this rematch.

Frankly, that small sample only enhanced my lean toward Walker as the betting number is now wider. There just wasn't anything wide or discernable between them before the illegal strike. Ankalaev landed a takedown and some early control, but there wasn't anything imminent or dangerous. Ankalaev closed -355 in that one, and after a +1 striking differential in the early going, he's now -550?

The better, more technical fighter is an obvious win pick here, but laying his asking price in betting markets is asking for trouble.

Betting Verdict

• From a betting angle, I'd sooner bet Walker than Ankalaev. Walker was having success with inside kicks (as most Ankalaev opponents do), so I'd have considered a decision prop in a three-round fight, but the moneyline is wide enough now to sprinkle by itself. My model has Walker as a +125 underdog due to Ankalaev's poor volume.
• The model also believes this fight goes the distance 55.5% of the time. The most tangible, realistic way I'll back this fight is with over 1.5 rounds (-168). That perfectly encompasses the proximity of the two in the first bout, Ankalaev's low volume, and Walker's poor defense still likely getting the worst of the exchanges.

DFS Verdict

• Ankalaev ($23) has topped 80 FanDuel points just once in his last five fights. He's a routine disappointment in this spot, but Walker's poor defense has first-round upside by default, and he'll be popular with -270 odds to win inside the distance.
• Walker ($14) has an elevated salary for the five-rounder, but his percentage for a finish is extremely close to Ankalaev's. I wouldn't blame anyone for saving salary. This fight truly has a wide range of outcomes from explosive finishes to a dud of a decision -- as the model forecasts.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.