UFC Vegas 82: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 14 fights at UFC Vegas 82: Allen vs. Craig, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Rafael Estevam vs. Charles Johnson

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)

Given the state of the rest of the card, I expected far worse in the opener.

UFC veteran Charles Johnson is a multi-time winner with the promotion, but he's also faced some of this division's most frightening wrestling matchups. Mohammad Mokaev and Cody Durden landed a combined 23 takedowns on Johnson in 30 octagon minutes, leaving his takedown defense at a mark (54%) that undersells his actual ability to me. As a striker, Johnson has a +0.48 striking success rate (SSR) despite matchups designed to tank it.

Landing two takedowns in a second-round finish on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS), Rafael Estevam is at least capable of wrestling if Johnson's warts prove to be an issue despite a step back in competition. However, Estevam's sparkling per-minute rates -- including a +6.07 SSR -- could be buoyed by an unworthy opponent from UFC's trial show. He absorbed just two significant strikes and controlled 89.0% of the entire fight. He's a bonafide championship contender if he, somehow, replicated that on Johnson.

However, oddsmakers aren't supremely confident in that. Estevam is just a -158 favorite here despite the one-way traffic on the show, and Johnson's uninspiring, 2-3 professional record likely isn't getting bettors to support him in droves.

This is largely a coinflip of Estevam being legitimate or not; I'll guess "not" given the short betting line despite obvious attention.

Betting Verdict

• I've always liked Johnson, and he's shown solid striking and vicious ground-and-pound in previous matchups. Estevam's DWCS stint couldn't have been better, and he's just a short favorite over a losing fighter; this betting line is fishy.
• If anything, Johnson hasn't been finished in UFC by actual title contenders. The fight is -210 to go the distance for good reason.

DFS Verdict

• Estevam ($16) should overwhelmingly be more popular at identical salaries, but Johnson ($16) could be a gold bar as a pivot if the debutant's DWCS bid was any bit of fraudulent.

Nikolas Motta vs. Trey Ogden

Lightweight (155 pounds)

I never had high hopes for Nikolas Motta after a -11 striking differential in his first UFC-affiliated "win" via a poor decision. It hasn't gone much better.

Motta's lone UFC win was a first-round KO of Cameron VanCamp (0-2 UFC), which is a trend dating back to VanCamp's regional days. In his other bouts, he was knocked out (yes, standing) by a 39-year-old Jim Miller and Eduardo Torres, a highly touted prospect from Mexico that's a much more forgivable loss. Still, Motta can't grapple whatsoever, and he's amassed a -1.31 SSR. I don't have any reason to pick him to win a UFC fight unless his opponent is unquestionably worse.

In my opinion, Trey Ogden certainly isn't. Ogden shocked Daniel Zellhuber (2-1 UFC) in Zellhuber's debut, and he's also gone the distance with a striker (Ignacio Bahamondes) and a grappler (Jordan Leavitt) -- both of whom have at least three UFC wins. "Samurai Ghost" isn't a strong striker, but his 54% striking D has kept him alive and in a position to potentially lock up a submission. He's offered 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and 11 of his 16 pro wins have come via sub.

This one is pretty simple. I have a higher rating -- anecdotally and analytically by SSR -- on Zellhuber, Bahamonder, and Leavitt as strikers than Motta, and Ogden is unquestionable the better grappler in this spot. Motta has had the more explosive result of these two thus far to resonate with casual bettors, but that's quite literally all he's got going for him.

It'll be nerve-wracking to avoid a potential first-round KO in this spot, but otherwise, I have pretty supreme confidence Ogden gets to his grappling and wins.

Betting Verdict

• Finally, Ogden has a matchup with a substantial, pronounced advantage as a grappler. I think he's finally in a position to show what he's got. I'll back both his moneyline (+116) and submission prop (+420) in some fashion.

DFS Verdict

• As the value play of the two, Ogden's submission upside is present enough to see a monster FanDuel score. I'm hoping he doesn't carry much popularity at $15.

Ailin Perez vs. Lucie Pudilova

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Women's bantamweight is pretty solidly the worst division within UFC, and Ailin Perez is showing how far strength and physical ability can get you.

She's a -196 favorite here after a 10-takedown battering of Ashlee Evans-Smith, a veteran well past her prime with a 50% takedown D. Perez's striking is largely unknown with 20 distance significant strikes landed to this point, but it was poor regionally. She's also yet to author an official submission attempt. Her other UFC bout was a boat race in the other direction; Stephanie Egger (3-3 UFC) swallowed her whole for a second-round submission.

Lucie Pudilova is an intriguing matchup for her third fight. Pudilova used to fight at 125 pounds, and she's 1-1 at women's bantamweight after beating Yanan Wu (1-5 UFC) and losing to Joselyne Edwards (4-3 UFC). Pudilova's 63% takedown defense is the cornerstone of this matchup, but she's yet to face an incoming attempt at this heavier weight class.

Truly, no result would surprise me here. Ailin Perez could be physically dominant against a former flyweight and score a violent finish in this fight, but she's also laughably unskilled on the feet without submission danger, so the experienced veteran, Pudilova, could teach her a painful lesson or two.

If I had to summarize this fight from a betting perspective, it would be to head for the hills -- or to other bouts on this card.

Betting Verdict

• Paying -196 for a fighter as unproven and unskilled as Perez seems like a bad idea, but she's also projected to have significant physical advantages here. I'm happily out on this one.

DFS Verdict

• With over 2.5 rounds sitting at -290, I might just pray this fight goes the full distance and isn't relevant in DFS whatsoever. I couldn't pick a side or accurately pinpoint upside for either.

Lucas Alexander vs. Jeka Saragih

Featherweight (145 pounds)

This fight could show -- once again -- that weight class is crucial.

Jeka Saragih dropping to 145 pounds here is likely this fight's only source of drama. Saragih was matched with Jesse Butler (0-1 UFC) in a loser-go-home bout, but Butler withdrew. He'll now face Lucas Alexander, who lost his opponent, David Onama (3-2 UFC), from the card in his home country two weeks ago.

Other than the weight change, Alexander has proven much more at this level. He dusted and retired veteran Steve Peterson (3-6 UFC) back in March during the San Antonio card and was nearly flawless. Alexander landed 53% of his significant strike attempts and defended a whopping 75% of Peterson's, dropping the three-time winner with one of the punches. Alexander's debut, on short notice, went poorly as he was submitted by Joanderson Brito (3-1 UFC), who is also to come on this card.

Nonetheless, Saragih hasn't fought a credentialed UFC fighter to this point. He lost the Road to UFC finale in February to Anshul Jubli, who was embarrassingly stopped last month in Abu Dhabi by Mike Breeden (1-3 UFC). Saragih slightly outlanded Jubli at distance, but he was taken down twice and lost the ground battle comfortably.

These two profile to be strikers, but Saragih landed three takedowns and a submission attempt through the Road to UFC competition. Alexander has no pro wins via submission to three losses, so if he's totally lost on the ground, it is possible the Indonesian fighter has a path to win this fight.

I just don't see it. Saragih's initial matchup with Butler was at the very most basic level of 155, and the promotion originally tasked Alexander with a tougher foe in Onama. That speaks to how they view these two in ideal circumstances on full notice.

Instead, Saragih now seems to be a proxy to build a much more talented prospect.

Betting Verdict

• This is another fight where the paths to failure for both are obvious. I don't see a desirable betting lens given how the line currently looks. If anything, a tiny nibble at Saragih's submission prop (+2300) will hedge my daily fantasy activity.

DFS Verdict

• DFS on FanDuel doesn't allow for uncertainty when the fight environment is projected to be this volatile; over 1.5 rounds sits at -154. Alexander is a tremendous striker (+3.29 SSR) with first-round knockout upside. He's got to be the target at $21 when I don't feel strongly about particular skills from the other side.

Mick Parkin vs. Caio Machado

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

As a training partner of Tom Aspinall, Mick Parkin picked up some street credit after Aspinall became the heavyweight champion a week ago with another sensational first-round effort.

Parkin's UFC debut couldn't have gone better, too. He dusted Jamal Pogues (1-1 UFC) with a +59 striking differential, landing 60% of his significant strikes and defending 64% of Pogues'. However, the bulk of Pogues' professional career has come at 205 pounds, and he looked noticeably out of place. Honestly, it's a bit concerning as a heavyweight that he had such an easy time and never even wobbled Pogues at any point.

On the other side here is a DWCS alum, Caio Machado. In one of the more bizarre fights of the most recent season, Machado cashed as a +135 underdog by stuffing all seven of Polish wrestler Kevin Szaflarski's takedown attempts. Szaflarski looked like he hadn't been stopped before (and probably hadn't), resigning to an awful effort at distance. Machado landed 69% of his significant strikes and defended 71% of the favorite's.

In many ways, these two fought the exact same fight in their last bout. Against an unproven, so-so competitor, they both picked their foe apart at distance but didn't find the finish. Both have more violent regional careers, though. All six of Parkin's regional wins came by finish, and six of Machado's seven were of the same variety. Intriguingly, "Bigfoot" Machado has two submissions to Parkin's one, but both already seem more well-rounded than the average heavyweight.

As far as a straight pick, Parkin's speed and training are worth an advantage over Machado, who wasn't even expected to make it this far. However, given the wide betting line, I am left wondering if Machado is being unreasonably ignored.

Betting Verdict

• The betting value is likely on Machado (+300) in this space in what is a battle of unproven heavyweights with power concerns. Sure, Parkin could win comfortably, but there's absolutely no evidence of either's UFC-level weakness. Neither have been professionally stopped.
• It's interesting that over 1.5 rounds sits at -182 here. This is an entirely different challenge for both than the respective decisions in their last bout.

DFS Verdict

• I'm most lost here of any fight on the card. I'd lean Parkin ($20) since he's -115 to win inside the distance, but Machado ($10) could easily do the same at negligible popularity.

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Denis Tiuliulin

Middleweight (185 pounds)

"Overvalued" was a word in my notes for Christian Leroy Duncan's first matchup this weekend, and this replacement bout won't help dissuade that opinion.

"CLD" was a top striking prospect in England before a dud of a debut earlier this year in which his opponent, Dusko Todorovic, tore his ACL seconds into the bout. Then, the next matchup with veteran Armen Petrosyan (4-1 UFC) was too tall of a task. He landed just 48% of his strikes and defended 43% of Petrosyan's in a lopsided loss. Duncan was a slight favorite over Cesar Almeida this weekend, but the accomplished kickboxer is injured and out of the fight. Denis Tiuliulin will hop in for his fourth UFC start instead.

Tiuliulin's happy to take a striking match at this point after easily being finished on the ground by Gregory Rodrigues, Junyong Park, and Aliaskhab Khriziev (1-0 UFC). In the name of fairness, those are three well-respected opponents, and Tiuliulin did defeat Jamie Pickett (2-6 UFC) to earn the title of "UFC winner" last fall. I'm still really discouraged at his UFC prospects; he needed multiple groin-strike fouls to come from behind and defeat Pickett.

Tiuliulin's a zero grappler with a 41% striking accuracy and 40% striking defense -- both of which are poor for the division. Petrosyan, obviously, was a strong opponent that showed a few weaknesses in Duncan's approach, but he and Todorovic both are significantly more accomplished and skill fighters than the substitute here.

Entering in March with championship-level aspirations, Duncan's UFC future is in jeopardy if he loses this one. If you ask me, the replacement call here was incredibly strategic from the promotion.

Betting Verdict

• Duncan's pace (122 significant strike attempts in 15 minutes) wasn't special against Petrosyan, so there could be some length to this fight by his own doing. Rather than get cute with a round, targeting his knockout prop -- when available -- is ideal.

DFS Verdict

• Due to the late-notice addition of this bout to the card, it is not on FanDuel's main slate.

Jose Johnson vs. Chad Anheliger

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

This card is short on competitive striking matches, so this one was a no-brainer for this week's Austin's Fight of the Night.

Jose Johnson is a -215 favorite, but he's yet to beat a foe with a UFC appearance in three tries, so "No Way" Jose is far from a lock. Still, Johnson's run through them includes wrestlers Ronnie Lawrence and Da'Mon Blackshear, and that's just not his game. Johnson's 33% takedown defense is awful. Without a takedown on record yet, Chad Anheliger will finally give him the fight he wants.

Johnson's per-minute peripherals are warped through the lost wrestling matches, but he's held an even striking differential (0) to this point at distance. Impressively, he's landed 63% of his significant strikes thus far, and expect that accuracy to be a theme with a phenomenal 71" reach for the division.

If Anheliger's efficiency was excellent, I'd consider him a much more realistic threat to win, but he had a -8 distance striking differential against the flawed Alatengheili (-2.15 SSR) last time out. He's the only one that Alatengheili has outlanded at distance thus far in a fight lasted more than a minute. His two UFC-affiliated wins are also now 0-3 against all others; it's quite possible he's just not a UFC-caliber fighter.

I expect Johnson to have a breakout performance in this fight. He won't be defending takedowns for the first time in his UFC-affiliated tenure, and that is a frightening proposition with his reach and power (eight regional wins by KO). Even if Anheliger tries to wrestle, he's likely not particularly skilled to do so.

Betting Verdict

• Even in my world with the worst analytical sample possible to evaluate Johnson's upside, I see the accuracy, and he's the one of these two with a submission attempt. The betting price isn't great, but he's a comfortable favorite for good reason despite no UFC wins.
• I love under 2.5 rounds (-102) in this fight. Johnson's regional power and Anheliger's high knockdown rate in UFC (1.84%) are a recipe for a finish once one of the strikers starts to seperate.

DFS Verdict

• Johnson ($18) is one of my favorite flex plays on the card. I don't think his resumé -- including a regional KO loss to Maña Martinez (2-2 UFC) -- merits MVP consideration, but he's got the distance-striking potential to put up a whopper.

Jonathan Pearce vs. Joanderson Brito

Featherweight (145 pounds)

This clash of surging featherweights will give the fringe of 145's rankings a bit of clarity. Jonathan Pearce is a perfect 5-0 since dropping to featherweight, and Joanderson Brito has a 4-1 record that includes some impressive names.

Pearce has been nothing short of physically dominant since moving down. He landed at least four takedowns in each of his first four starts, and when a wrestler (Darren Elkins) provided an easier path to victory, "JSP" bloodied the veteran with 110 significant strikes. Analytically, he does everything well, adding a 5.74 takedowns per 15 minutes to a growing and impressive +2.45 SSR. Still, his knockout loss in a lightweight debut versus Joe Lauzon (15-13 UFC) looms as a concern for some.

Brito is much more of a surprise. I wrote him off as nothing special after a decisive loss to Bill Algeo (5-4 UFC) in his debut off DWCS, but then he blasted Andre Fili with a 41-second knockout. With all of that said, he's probably overvalued after consecutive wins over the aforementioned Lucas Alexander (1-1 UFC) and Westin Wilson -- both coming via late-notice matchups. Alexander's grappling deficiencies made that one a layup.

However, Brito's DWCS appearance is where things get interesting. He turned away Diego Lopes (2-1 UFC) in a win that's aging like wine after another emphatic Lopes win last week. Still, I'm not sure I feel comfortable with his 50% striking D, and he's yet to defend either of the takedown attempts he's faced.

JSP's level of competition leaves plenty to be desired, but each of his last four wins were multi-time UFC winners. To this point, Brito only has two victories over multi-time winners, including Lopes. I have to trust Pearce's sparkling peripherals in this spot.

Betting Verdict

• I'm not leaping to bet Pearce at -138, but he is comfortably my win pick. I've still got so many questions about Brito when his Lopes effort years ago was the only prolonged sample against a quality fighter.
• With both facing their toughest official UFC test, I'm expecting this fight to go the distance, and FanDuel Sportsbook has that outcome at +180.

DFS Verdict

• Wrestling can be a bad thing for DFS purposes, but Pearce's high volume overcomes those concerns. He's averaged 118.3 FanDuel points amidst his winning streak, and Brito's questionable takedown defense opens the door for another high-scoring effort.

Uros Medic vs. Myktybek Orolbai

Welterweight (170 pounds)

These Apex cards really love to throw curveballs.

Myktybek Orolbai is not a name I'd have thought about this week had Uros Medic's original opponent, Jonny Parsons, not predictably pulled out. Parsons was on course for a total detonation a the hands of the prolific "Doctor".

Instead, Orolbai will get the call from UFC's minor league promotion, LFA. He trains with Viacheslav Borschev, Mike Malott, and Li Jingliang in this weight vicinity at Team Alpha Male, and the welterweight from Kyrgyzstan was on his way to a potential call to DWCS with three straight wins in LFA -- the last two coming by knockout.

Still, he's never had a fight against a rival with UFC experience, so Medic is a tough, tough draw. His 80% takedown D has kept fights where he can win them, and Medic has landed a stellar 61% of his significant strikes while defending 58%. His only UFC loss was to ranked 155er Jalin Turner, and Medic has finished all three of his UFC wins early.

I was stunned to see Orolbai positioned as a favorite, and he is a tougher-than-you-would-expect late draw for a prospect that's shown as much for Medic. However, Orolbai doesn't have an LFA win by submission, and that's really the only spot we've seen Medic vulnerable thus far.

I can't help but lean toward the known quantity in this spot, but a pass here couldn't hurt.

Betting Verdict

• Oddsmakers are showing plenty of love for Orolbai, but Medic's elite peripherals and significant experience edge are worth a +122 dart to me. If Orolbai's striking D is solid, Medic's decision prop could be an intriguing look when available. He was just a couple of minutes from going there with the accomplished Matt Semelsberger (5-4 UFC).

DFS Verdict

• Due to the late-notice addition of this bout to the card, it is not on FanDuel's main slate.

Amanda Ribas vs. Luana Pinheiro

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

Left searching for answers after Amanda Ribas' shocking loss to Maycee Barber in June, I've come to a conclusion. Ribas might have always been overvalued on the back of her takedown defense (88%).

Ribas was able to use that to dismantle Mackenzie Dern, Randa Markos, Paige VanZant, Virna Jandiroba, and Vivi Araujo rising up the rankings, but what do those fighters all have in common? They'd rather grapple, shown by just two combined career knockouts at distance.

Against strikers like Barber, Katlyn Chookagian, and Marina Rodriguez, she's 0-3 with two losses by KO, and she's had a -72 striking differential against that trio. Her striking defense (64%) is excellent, but she's clearly not comfortably getting hit.

Luana Pinheiro could still potentially qualify as a striker. Pinheiro's +0.19 SSR isn't great, but she's scored 2 knockdowns in 4 fights and has won a pair of them without a takedown. She did maul the aforementioned Markos for five takedowns in a first-round win, but she's decently comfortable standing. Oh yeah, she's also 4-0 to this point.

However, Luana's last effort was unquestionably her worst. She posted a -17 striking differential against Michelle Waterson-Gomez -- the only quality foe she's faced. Waterson-Gomez also just retired earlier this year, so the deserved "L" for that one is aging like milk.

Pinheiro has only defended two takedown attempts in UFC and surrendered one. To me, that likely decides this fight. If Ribas can secure takedowns (2.27 per 15 minutes historically), then she should be fine to coast out a win here. If not, Pinheiro's power could make things interesting since it has proven to be Ribas' kryptonite.

I just can't ignore Pinheiro's dud in her last fight. Amanda's chin isn't ideal, but she's got elite striking D and takedown D (88%). I'd be pretty stunned to see her career up in smoke with another loss on Saturday.

Betting Verdict

• Pinheiro's power is likely why she's showing value in the model. I've only got Ribas as a -205 favorite compared to -245 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Ribas' decision prop is +110 on FanDuel. That prop is showing the most value of any when my model has it at -115.
• Still, even with respect to Ribas' issues, this is women's strawweight, and the model is assigning a 66.9% chance this fight goes the distance. That would certainly help Amanda.

DFS Verdict

• This fight is only -156 to go the distance on FanDuel, which is much shorter than my model. I also could see a lopsided outcome in both directions, and Ribas ($19) will come at minimal popularity with key advantages like experience and defense. It's an intriguing fight from this lens.

Payton Talbott vs. Nick Aguirre

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

More than any other fighter off this most recent season of DWCS, I circled Payton Talbott as a potential star.

Talbott landed 9.67 significant strikes per minute with 51% accuracy, and he defended 16 of 17 takedown attempts from Reyes Cortez. His striking defense (50%) left a little to be desired, but his comfortable, easy offense with immediate grappling defense returns should make him a fun fighter in this competitive 135-pound division.

He's definitely getting favorable treatment with Nick Aguirre's second (and potentially last) UFC bout. Aguirre stepped in on short notice in January, and he was mauled by Dan Argueta to the tune of a -33 striking differential while allowing 4 takedowns and 2 submission attempts. Heart to make it to the final bell is all I have to report on the positive side.

While Aguirre won't have to worry about the grappling element of this particular matchup, he's just not a guy I profiled for success against Argueta, entering UFC with four of his previous five opponents holding a losing record as a professional. A case of competence certainly wasn't made in his debut.

Talbott's strong effort on the show wasn't just noticed by me. UFC's brass was watching, too. That's why Talbott -- and his impressive striking offense -- has the softest matchup on this weekend's card as its largest favorite.

Betting Verdict

• Talbott's -800 moneyline makes this a tough fight to bet. Without a knockdown on the show and Aguirre surviving to the bell in his debut, I'm leaning toward his knockout prop (+100) having value here. TKOs due to uncompetitiveness cash, too.

DFS Verdict

• Talbott ($22) is the best MVP candidate on the card by a mile. He posted 5.80 FanDuel points per minute (excl. bonuses) on the show and potentially has a worse opponent here. His style is ideal for scoring on FanDuel, as well.

Chase Hooper vs. Jordan Leavitt

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Two of UFC's most well-known unranked lightweights have been on this crash course for a while.

Chase Hooper became a cult hero winning as a 19-year-old back in 2019, and he's -- predictably -- endured the ups-and-downs expected for a guy good enough to live out his entire prime in the sport's top promotion. Hooper has four UFC wins, but they've come over opponents a combined 3-9 against all others. He's also been embarrassed -- and in one case, knocked out -- for a -87 striking differential across three losses.

Hooper's jiu-jitsu earned him access into the sport, but his striking defense (36%) has always been an issue. Hooper used elite pace to lap Nick Fiore (0-2 UFC) in his last bout and pad a +1.33 SSR that was negative before the bout. Fiore was also his lightweight debut -- a move expected as his frame grows.

On the other side, Jordan Leavitt is truly one of a kind. Leavitt's fun, silly personality has been notable since he joined back in 2020. He knocked out Victor Martinez in Martinez's debut back in February, adding to a 4-2 UFC record. However, he was the victim of a Paddy Pimblett submission during the 2022 London card, and Claudio Puellas (5-2 UFC) also outlasted him in a snore-inducing grappling display.

Frankly, I am not bumping Hooper up much for the Fiore effort. Fiore is a grappler by trade and still landed 56% of his strikes without the technique or power to make them count. Less than a year ago, Hooper was dismantled by Steve Garcia at featherweight.

Not only did Leavitt show Muay Thai prowess and physicality through his February knockout, but he's also shown the grappling skills (2.31 takedowns per 15) that gave Hooper fits against Steve Peterson back in 2021 at 145 pounds.

There's just no way or reason Hooper should be this heavy of a favorite over a proven UFC fighter; he's quite literally never beaten one -- even at a smaller weight class.

Betting Verdict

• Hooper is a -215 favorite, but my model would position him at -110 with Leavitt at +110 (due to no vig). I also see this as a close bout where Leavitt could be more powerful or physical in both domains.
  • Interestingly, Leavitt is showing as +745 by knockout according to the model. It's +1000 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
• I've got the slightest of leans toward an early finish; it's 50.5% in the model. I will, anecdotally, add that I'd trust Hooper over Leavitt the later this fight goes in a vacuum.

DFS Verdict

• These two are always good for out-of-nowhere DFS upside, but I think Leavitt ($12) has to be in my pool of value plays with a non-zero chance his size and physicality wins out for 15 minutes -- or less.

Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews

Welterweight (170 pounds)

I'm struggling to evaluate Michael Morales overall, but the 23-year-old's early returns are definitely positive.

The Ecuadorian fighter knocked out Trevin Giles (7-5 UFC) in his debut and was virtually flawless against Max Griffin (7-8 UFC) in July. He had a +36 striking differential in the decision win, but his 100% takedown defense and 65% striking D against a division stalwart were impressive.

Then, there's the short-notice result against Adam Fugitt (1-2 UFC) that leaves a bit of doubt -- especially considering his age. Fugitt was neck-and-neck with him entering the third round, but he did find the TKO. He had a 44% striking D in that fight, and it was a paltry 35% on his DWCS bid. Giles and Griffin are consistently unreliable, so did he catch them on the wrong night?

Morales draws veteran Jake Matthews, who makes even less sense to handicap. Matthews' dominant 2018 win of Li Jingliang (11-6 UFC) was his last over an active fighter with a winning record. His three wins since the COVID break are Flowers, Andre Fialho (2-5 UFC), and a significantly aged Diego Sanchez, whose prime in UFC was at 155 pounds.

On paper, Matthews +0.94 SSR isn't bad, but he was also dropped three times last December by Matt Semelsberger in a one-sided loss. He's been more of a wrestler previously (1.71 takedowns per 15), but Morales' 91% takedown D -- tested by Griffin -- has been solid early.

Matthews is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu that's shown quality striking with excellent defense (60%). He is a prototype for a gatekeeper built to hunt and identify weaknesses. Surely, Morales has them at such a young age. If it weren't for concerns about Matthews' chin, I'd comfortably bet his moneyline.

Betting Verdict

• Morales meets the time threshold for my model (45 octagon minutes or 5 fights), but I still just don't feel comfortable with how much of the sample is from a DWCS fight when he was 21. It's positioning Matthews as a -105 favorite for the believers, but there are flaws in the data.
• It's also assigning a 50.4% probability this fight goes the full distance without much of a lean.
  • If a "stay away" spot ever existed from the model, this would be it.

DFS Verdict

• Matthews hasn't ceded over 100 FanDuel points in a fight since 2016 -- even despite getting dropped three times by Semelsberger. Morales ($19) might win with some fantasy relevance, but I don't want my night in DFS decided here on either side.

Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig

Middleweight (185 pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

Before the start of 2023, I'd only have envisioned this fight on late notice at 205 pounds, but what a year it's been.

Paul Craig has crafted the rare late-career resurgence in MMA. He's committed to a thinner frame at middleweight, and it paid dividends with a second-round TKO of Andre Muniz (7-2 UFC) in his 185-pound debut. At 205 pounds, there was definite "cheese" to his style; he'd pull guard, lay on his back, and desperately grab at legs to get to his elite submission game (1.7 submission attempts per 15), but he used brute force against Muniz. Oh yeah, he's also the only guy to defeat the former, injured 205-pound champion, Jamahal Hill.

On the other side as a heavy favorite, Brendan Allen seems to live up to his nickname as "All In" on a title run. He knocked out Bruno Silva in May to continue a five-fight win streak at 185, and he also submitted Muniz in the third round to match Craig's result.

Oddly, these two are incredibly similar fighters. Allen's age (28) is preferred to the 35-year-old, but they're clunky strikers with an identical 46% striking D. Both were outlanded at distance by Muniz, who isn't a strong striker in his own right. Craig's takedown volume (1.91 per 15 minutes) is higher and could be projected to increase at middleweight, but to this point, Allen (44% takedown accuracy) has been more efficient.

Comfortable working off their back, both also have historical sub-55% takedown defense. It really could come down to which striker is less poor or which fighter has an edge in physical strength. I'd lean Allen, who just dropped Silva at distance, as the stronger striker, but I'd profile "Bearjew", the former light heavyweight, as the stronger guy.

For a tough fight to forecast, the betting value seems to be squarely on Craig when I also factor in his recent level of competition; he's fought five straight ranked fighters to Allen's one (Muniz) in his last five bouts.

Betting Verdict

• My model is close on this fight, but it is projecting Craig to win 51.7% of the time off the strength of his wrestling. Anecdotally, I agree that Allen's previous warts and obvious paths to failure aren't getting enough respect at a -440 price tag.
• I've got this fight at 68.6% likely to finish before the final bell, and it matches the fact that decisions are rare for both. Allen has just a 23.1% decision rate in UFC; Craig is at 18.8%. This is each's first five-round fight.

DFS Verdict

• With early odds to find a finish as a prohibitive favorite, Allen ($23) makes plenty of sense as a process MVP candidate, but Craig ($14) likely will be significantly less popular when he can certainly win this fight in a fantasy-relevant fashion.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.