UFC Vegas 110 Best Bets and Props: Garcia vs. Onama

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama, taking place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Vegas 110 Betting Picks

Ketlen Vieira vs. Norma Dumont

Vieira via Decision No Bet (+150)
Vieira by Submission (+1200)

The -350 odds this fight goes the distance exist for a reason. My model has it 73.9% likely with Norma Dumont (47.4%) winning the decision far more often than Ketlen Vieira (26.5%).

With none of those outcomes in value range, I sort of like this approach to the only bout between top-10 fighters on the card. It's moving day at women's bantamweight as Dumont, especially, eyes her first chance at Kayla Harrison. Vieira lost to Kayla in 2024.

She survived all 15 minutes with Harrison on the back of her grappling. At 1.28 takedowns and 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes with an elite 90% takedown D, my model believes Vieira has a weighted grappling advantage of 31.1% in the matchup. That checks out with a red flag on Dumont's profile, which is that she's never faced an official submission attempt.

Vieira's last win via submission came in 2017, but she does have five official attempts since that fight.

I've got Vieira winning via submission 8.7% of the time (+1050 implied). There's a smidge of value, but the better path to back that might be in the "decision no bet" market on FanDuel, which voids if we hit the scorecards as predicted. I've got Vieira 13.8% likely to win via stoppage compared to 12.3% for Dumont. She should be a small favorite in the market.

Allan Nascimento vs. Cody Durden

Durden to Win (+235)
Durden by Points (+480)

Cody Durden has lost four of five fights yet steps in here on short notice. I think that's a good indication he feels strongly that he can beat Allan Nascimento.

Durden's setbacks have come to three ranked flyweights and star prospect Jose Ochoa, so it's not like he's losing to bums. Nascimento (3-1 UFC) would be roughly on par with Ochoa as the weakest UFC fighter to defeat "Custom Made" to this stage.

Nascimento's path comes via the submission, where he averages 0.9 attempts per 15 minutes. Durden has lost 3 UFC fights via sub, but he's also survived 10 additional attempts and averages 0.7 sub attempts per 15. In general, I think he knows what he's doing on the mat.

So, it's sort of undervalued that Durden can demolish Nascimento's 30% takedown D and win with top control. He averages 4.13 takedowns per 15 with exceptional accuracy (47%).

I've got Nascimento's submission outcome at 27.9%, but Durden's points prop (24.2%) is the next-likeliest outcome. The American is undervalued to win in any fashion when I've got him modeled at 45.3% likely.

Jeremiah Wells vs. Themba Gorimbo

Gorimbo to Win (-132)
Under 2.5 Rounds (-112)
Gorimbo Wins Inside the Distance (+220)

The precipitous fall of Jeremiah Wells would have been stunning at the midpoint of 2023.

Wells had just moved to 4-0 in UFC before an August 2023 bout against Carlston Harris (4-3 UFC) that he was dominating. A sneaky choke attempt by Harris ended his perfect UFC tenure, and Wells went to a split decision with Max Griffin in February 2024 in his only other fight. The 37-year-old had a fight fall apart in May and has been missing in action.

That's a red flag against an athlete like Themba Gorimbo, who has warts of his own. Gorimbo lost via front choke for the second time in UFC earlier this year to Vicente Luque, who is 0-3 against all others since the start of 2024. Wells, a jiu-jitsu black belt, has a career win via submission and averages 0.8 attempts per 15 minutes.

Both Wells and Gorimbo have a knockdown rate (KD%) north of 1.20%. There's big power here, submission danger from the Wells side, and the unknown that comes from the American's ambiguous layoff. I've got this fight 76.3% likely to end early compared to FanDuel's 59.0% odds.

Even with the higher KD% and added submission danger, I think Wells (37.9%) is slightly overvalued to find the finish compared to Gorimbo (38.4%). He's -118 in "decision no bet", yet Themba should still be a slight favorite there. He's not encroaching 40.

Gorimbo does have almost all of the fight's decision equity, which is why I have him modeled 58.4% likely (-140 implied) to win, though.

Steve Garcia vs. David Onama

Garcia to Win (-138)
Garcia by Points (+1000)

I've backed Steve Garcia for four straight model dubs -- even though July's decision win over Calvin Kattar bucked its automatic knockout bet tendencies for "Mean Machine".

Garcia was still the first to drop Kattar in that fight with a knockdown, adding to his massive 2.56 KD%. He's dropped all six foes since moving down to 145 pounds. It's not like David Onama hasn't had his issues with striking defense in UFC, either. He was dropped by newcomer Roberto Romero last year, hurt by Nate Landwehr late in a 2022 fight, and dropped an ugly first round to Gabriel Benitez in 2021.

Onama's 52% striking D is just okay, and he's been very plain to post a +0.51 striking success rate (SSR) overall. Garcia (+2.98 SSR) has him soundly beat, and the American's 88% takedown D has stood strong to this point. Onama (30% takedown accuracy) hasn't been a supremely efficient wrestler, either.

It's possible "Mean Machine" just doesn't have the grappling chops to survive deeper waters with the athletic prospect, but his boxing has been too crisp to sell now. I've got Garcia 62.3% likely to win (-165 implied), and it's a knockout 37.8% of the time (+165 implied).

That makes Garcia's decision prop (15.2% modeled) probably slightly undervalued. I wouldn't go crazy at it, but the model does respect Onama never having been stopped as a pro.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.