UFC Vancouver Best Bets and Props: de Ridder vs. Allen

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen, taking place at the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada on Saturday.

UFC Vancouver Betting Picks

Charles Jourdain vs. Davey Grant

Grant to Win (+138)

If you missed this season of Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS), Charles Jourdain's brother got a super impressive win at that sub-UFC level. I think it's weirdly bled into this line.

Of course, "Air" Jourdain's win in his 135-pound debut didn't hurt, either. Even though he ceded four takedowns and was losing the fight, the final attempt from Victor Henry ended up with the Canadian securing another patented guillotine choke -- his third with the promotion.

Davey Grant just survived -- and thrived -- in 15 minutes with divisional submission wizard Da'Mon Blackshear. Jourdain's one-trick pony is a tough sell. At distance, the Englishman's +1.44 striking success rate (SSR) does edge out Jourdain's (+1.14), and "Dangerous" Davey has shown enough wrestling (1.04 takedowns landed per 15 minutes) to wonder if he busts it out opposite Jourdain's terrible 46% takedown D.

My model still has the younger guy, in his home country, as a favorite that's 52.7% likely to win. This line has ballooned out of control, though, and this is familiar territory for Grant (37) a 'dog because of his age. He's cashed three of his last four fights at plus money.

A proverbial point spread bet, if available, would be the best plan of attack here.

Manon Fiorot vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

Jasudavicius to Win (+186)
Jasudavicius by Submission (+1100)

Price is the name of the game here. You don't need me to tell you that, a vast majority of the time, this fight ends with Manon Fiorot's 87% takedown D guiding her to an easy decision win.

That's -135, though, in a sport as unpredictable as cage fighting. Plus, this foray into flyweight's top 10 hasn't exactly been perfect for France's "The Beast". She's lost the distance striking differential in two of her last three fights, and I think it's the exception that's guiding this line movement. Fiorot stuffed all three takedowns from Erin Blanchfield, who -- at 5'4" -- is small for the division.

Jasmine Jasudavicius is not. Canada's best hope at UFC gold matches Fiorot's 5'7" frame with a three-inch edge in reach (68"). It's tough to say Jas can't get her definitively can't grappling going here when she's dismantled two former title challengers for four takedowns, a submission, and two dominant wins in consecutive fights.

Valentina Shevchenko was able to floor Fiorot twice on nine attempts. It's not crazy to think, at this stage of their career, that Jas is a better grappler than the champion.

Now, the underdog is probably in deep trouble at distance if that doesn't pan out, but that's baked into the price. I've got Jasudavicius modeled as 44.5% likely to win this fight, and it's a submission 10.9% of the time. Both are showing good value against these props.

Marlon "Chito" Vera vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Vera to Win (+108)
Vera Wins Inside the Distance (+350)

It can be pretty difficult to get so close to your dream and have it dashed. Over a year off for Chito Vera was probably a good thing.

Vera's -141 striking differential in his lone championship opportunity against Sean O'Malley is still a bantamweight record in a title fight. He was crushed both physically and mentally. That led to probably hopping back into competition too soon against Deiveson Figueiredo, who proved last week he's still a top competitor. That split decision with Figgy hasn't aged poorly.

The Ecuadorian is still a massive step up in competition for Aiemann Zahabi. Zahabi was able to use a dominant third round to get past a semi-retired Jose Aldo, but look at the in-fight performance of both these men against Pedro Munhoz. Exclusively at distance in both fights, Vera (+28) had twice the striking differential of Zahabi (+14) when they fought the tough Brazilian vet.

My model doesn't even sift out or normalize the O'Malley beatdown in Chito's career-long numbers, either. Without it, I'd probably make him a big favorite here behind a superior level of competition, knockdown rate (0.87 KD%), and history of cashing submission wins in UFC (3).

As it stands, Vera's 52.0% modeled win probability definitely works at these odds.

Kevin Holland vs. Mike Malott

Fight Doesn't Start Round 3 (-126)
Holland Wins in Round 1 or Round 2 (+260)

Can the lone man to tell you Daniel Rodriguez was going to upset Kevin Holland take a bow and tell you not to overreact to this matchup?

DRod's durability, volume, and power weren't given enough credit by oddsmakers to make Holland a ridiculous favorite in the -500 area. However, this is the sort of buy-low spot where "Trailblazer" is a bad, bad man at welterweight. Before that upset -- in which Holland nearly landed a seminal blow of his own -- by DRod, he was 6-3 in this weight class with a 78% takedown D, displaying plus power (0.87 KD%) and submission danger (0.8 attempts per 15 minutes) for the division.

Mike Malott hasn't really accomplished more than Rodriguez at 170 pounds. His five wins in the division have come over fighters with a 16-18 record inside of it -- and some at the very entry level. Some might remember Malott's third-round (T)KO loss to Neil Magny when he ran out of gas, but I'd argue his staring contest with Trevin Giles (59 sig. strikes landed) was even worse.

Both of these guys have power. Both have great submission skills. I've got this fight 80.4% likely to end early, and it definitely feels like Holland is due for one after his three-knockdown bonanza with DRod improbably went the distance.

In terms of the outcome, Holland is a year younger than Malott even if attrition favors the Canadian favorite. The American's strength of schedule is also better. I've got Malott at 45.1% likely to finish the fight, and Holland comes at 35.2%. Both show value, but at cost, I prefer "Big Mouth".

Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen

Fight Doesn't Start Round 4 (-130)
Allen Wins in Round 1, 2, or 3 (+380)
Allen by KO/TKO in Round 1, 2, or 3 (+850)

This last-minute main event might be better matchmaking than the previous. Fluffy Hernandez did steamroll Brendan Allen, and he probably would have steamrolled Reinier de Ridder.

de Ridder's UFC career has gone as well as he'd have hoped. The former two-division champion with ONE Championship used his reputation and three quick wins to set up a defacto top-five matchup with former champ Robert Whittaker, and he got the nod in a split decision where both were badly hurt. The 35-year-old is massive for this weight class, but his chin and fleeting cardio showed up in that one.

Plus, RDR's +0.51 SSR is just okay. He usually grapples as a plan of attack, and Allen's 56% takedown D should allow mat returns.

However, the younger 29-year-old "All In" has shown good endurance in scrambles to both survive all 40 minutes he's faced Hernandez in addition to landing eight takedowns in two dominant wins over Paul Craig and Chris Curtis. He averages 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes to de Ridder's 0.6 when the Dutch fighter's 66% takedown D against worse competition isn't ideal, either.

In a vacuum, de Ridder is a deserving favorite here. I've got him at 62.0% to win. But honestly, this fight should be a lot of fun. I've got it 83.1% likely to not go the distance when Allen brings more power and submission danger to the table than Whittaker did, and that one was a bloody mess that barely made it all 25 minutes.

Getting the younger fighter to potentially win a well-timed scramble and take the back -- or drop RDR as Whittaker did -- is too good to pass up. I've got Allen as 32.2% likely to win inside the distance (+211 implied).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.