UFC Shanghai Best Bets and Props: Walker vs. Zhang

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Shanghai: Walker vs. Zhang, taking place at the Mercedes-Benz Arena in Shanghai, China on Saturday.

UFC Shanghai Betting Picks

Michel Pereira vs. Kyle Daukaus

Daukaus to Win (+220)
Daukaus by Submission (+650)

It's good to see Kyle Daukaus back in UFC.

A tale as old as time, Daukaus' prior UFC strength of schedule was way better than anticipated, and he was probably cut prematurely. In seven fights, he fought four dudes who have previously held a ranking -- and a combined opposing UFC record of 55-45. That was a ton of experience and success in the other corner.

Those won't change against Michel Pereira (9-4 UFC), but this is an interesting matchup in a turning point for Pereira's middleweight career. He took advantage of three one-dimensional fighters to start at 185 pounds, but lopsided setbacks inside the rankings to "Fluffy" Hernandez and Abus Magomedov were a different story.

Daukaus doesn't really allow "distance", which has allowed him to maintain a +0.28 striking success rate (SSR) to Pereira's +0.17. He's the natural middleweight, as well, when "Demolidor" Pereira has defended a decent-but-not-special 22 of 33 takedown attempts (67%) in this weight class.

Pereira's perpetual endurance issues against a suffocating grappler like Daukaus have a path to failure. I've got "The D'Arce Knight" as 43.0% likely to win. That's a submission 25.2% of the time. Even adjusting for short notice, he's the undervalued side in this matchup.

Sumudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas

Sumudaerji to Win (-180)
Sumudaerji Wins Inside the Distance (+350)

China's Sumudaerji is among many getting the showcase in their home country on the card, and he's a great pick to win this Saturday.

Sumudaerji's turbulent, 4-5 tenure in UFC is a bit more forgiven with three straight setbacks inside the rankings. He showed well for himself in a loss to Charles Johnson (6-5 UFC) with a +10 striking differential, and his takedown defense is much improved. He's stuffed 17 of his last 25 attempts faced -- even if Kevin Borjas is unlikely to shoot.

Borjas cashed as an underdog on enemy soil against Ronaldo Rodriguez (1-2 UFC) in Mexico City, but that win can't mean much when Rodriguez has been outstruck in all four UFC fights.

In primarily a striking match, "The Tibetan Eagle" has a +1.77 SSR to Borjas' -0.96. Plus, I was surprised to see Sumudaerji also has averaged 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes, giving him a perceived edge in grappling upside, too.

My model sees Sumudaerji as 68.0% likely to win this battle, and it's a finish 47.8% of the time. Before "El Gallo Negro" upset Rodriguez, he was demolished in his first two UFC starts.

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Cortes-Acosta to Win (+215)

Bettors just don't seem to trust Waldo Cortes-Acosta's rise up the rankings.

Though it was a "tight" decision on the scorecards, "Salsa Boy" demolished Serghei Spivac for a +62 striking differential. The fight wasn't close. The former baseball player has proven to be an elite striker (+2.55 SSR) for this division with athletic takedown defense (66%) that stuffed four of six tries against Spivac.

Sergei Pavlovich needed to go to his wrestling to survive Jairzinho Rosenstruik, so if that's not there, it's easy to see him getting outpointed or beat up at distance. Pavlovich had a meteoric run of four straight first-round (T)KOs after returning in 2022, but the proof is in the pudding against high-level strikers. He's managed a combined -38 striking differential in his last three fights against Rosenstruik, Tom Aspinall, and Alexander Volkov. The latter two were lopsided losses.

Cortes-Acosta hasn't been dropped in UFC with solid striking defense (55%). On a per-minute basis, he should destroy the Russian, who seems to be knockout or bust despite this vaunted -260 price tag.

I've modeled Waldo a modest favorite (57.7%) and agree with the verdict. If Pavlovich hasn't found an early finish, things typically don't go well for him.

Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling

Ortega to Win (+300)
Ortega by KO/TKO (+1900)

Cinematic matchmaking created this featherweight co-main event. Brian Ortega and Aljamain Sterling are two of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the sport with eight combined UFC wins via submission.

When two high-level guys in an area meet, it's usually a wash. This fight probably comes down to top position and performance at distance. In both areas, Ortega seems to be undervalued as the natural 145er compared to Sterling, who won a title and spent most of his career at 135.

Ortega's takedown D (55%) is actually much higher than Aljo's (42%), and that was the element that turned Sterling's last loss to Movsar Evloev. The Russian realized he could just take him down himself. Ortega tries 4.12 takedowns per 15 minutes on average, so he should attempt to at some point.

However, at distance is where "T-City" could shine. Ortega's -2.51 SSR was decimated by Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, who shifted him 306 strikes into the red themselves. He's fared much better against others, posting a +65 striking differential against Chan Sung Jung in 2021. That's the best Sterling striking comp on his recent resumé.

I've got Ortega 39.8% likely to win this fight, and it's a (T)KO 13.8% of the time. The chalk behind Sterling here is odd when his lone win at featherweight came against an entirely washed Calvin Kattar (1-5 since the start of 2022).

Obviously, this line has been influenced by Ortega's scary weight miss yesterday, which my model doesn't know about. That stuff doesn't matter as much as the public thinks it does, but I'm still betting the fight lighter now.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.