UFC Rio Best Bets and Props: Oliveira vs. Gamrot

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot, taking place at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Saturday.

UFC Rio Betting Picks

Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen

Petersen to Win (+235)

In several respects, this is pretty much uncharted territory for Vitor Petrino.

The former light heavyweight aced his heavyweight debut with a first-round submission of Austen Lane (1-4 UFC), but he'll lose both that low level of competition and grappling advantage against former college wrestler Thomas Petersen (2-2 UFC).

Petersen's handicap is pretty straight forward. He's landed 11 takedowns in his two promotional wins, coasting when he get his wrestling going. He's landed a combined one in two lopsided losses. Will he crack Petrino's 71% takedown D? Well, he'll quite literally be the first to try since Anton Turkalj (0-3 UFC) in March 2023, and Turkalj landed 5 of his 15 attempts.

Considering this is a heavier weight class, Petrino might have an even more difficult time stopping the natural heavyweight, and my largest concern for the Brazilian favorite is actually whether or not his 0.94% knockdown rate translates to any true power at heavyweight. Moreover, it was Petrino who was finished in his last two starts at 205 pounds before the layup against Lane.

Petrino's speed, athleticism, and skill are noteworthy, but Petersen's strength and wrestling could easily make him look -500 in this fight, too. I've got the underdog as 47.9% likely to win, making him the clear side at these lopsided odds.

Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (+112)
Carpenter Wins Inside the Distance (+340)

Six of these two's nine combined UFC-affiliated starts ended inside the distance. Though some of that was mowing over inferior competition, I'm willing to take a swipe at this under.

Frankly, I struggled getting my arms around Jafel Filho before this -- his model debut. Filho submitted two poor grapplers, Daniel Barez and Ode Osbourne, before an ugly, competitive decision loss to Allan Nascimento (3-1 UFC). Posting 2.45 takedowns and 2.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes, his plan of attack is no secret, but it doesn't particularly score on a per-minute basis at 1.92 significant strikes per minute.

There's no doubt that Clayton Carpenter will be better at distance here. The MMA Lab product's +1.16 striking success rate (SSR) survived a trip into the top 10 against Tagir Ulanbekov (6-1 UFC), but he lost ceding 6:49 in control time. Still, with submission wins in his two UFC starts before that bout, he's a sub threat himself, and Filho was submitted by Muhammed Mokaev (7-0 UFC) during his lone foray into the top 10.

Filho's 47% striking D at distance is horrible, and both of these guys present an elite submission threat by the division's standard. The best play on the board is violence. I've got this one ending early 70.2% of the time.

I've got Carpenter ending it early 35.0% of the time to Filho's 35.2%, but Carp's odds to find the finish are much longer.

Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez

Luque to Win (+390)
Luque by KO/TKO or Points (+500)

The weight bully might get bullied here.

Life changes drastically for Joel Alvarez on Saturday, and the public might be underrating what I believe is the biggest weight jump in the sport from lightweight (155) to welterweight (170). There's roughly a 26-percentage-point jump in finishes when inside the heavier division, and the 6'3" fighter -- often missing weight at 155 -- won't entirely tower over and intimidate Vicente Luque.

Luque just faced Kevin Holland, a former middleweight (185) that had 0.5 inches of height and 6 inches of reach on Alvarez. Holland won by second-round submission, and I think Luque resigns the Spaniard to a "submission or bust" spot here, too.

Frankly, Alvarez's bottom game was a disaster at 155. It might totally be his undoing at 170. His 40% takedown D against smaller guys was awful, and Arman Tsarukyan finished Alvarez from top position with elbows in a 2022 fight.

The Brazilian underdog has been here before. He landed 8 takedowns in 25 minutes to just bully another former lightweight, Rafael Dos Anjos. Dos Anjos' takedown D (54%) was even slightly better on paper.

Of course, there's risk Alvarez snatches Luque's neck when he was just submitted -- via front choke -- in his last bout by the larger Holland. However, that's more than fairly baked into this price. I've modeled Luque as 46.3% likely to win this bout, and it comes via knockout or decision 32.7% of the time.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson

Jackson Wins Inside the Distance (+200)
Jackson by KO/TKO (+310)

Montel Jackson's devastating power is almost always worth a bet relative to price at FanDuel.

Jackson has three (T)KO wins in his last six starts, and his 3.23% knockdown rate is the highest among active bantamweights with at least five starts. Though it hasn't always led to the finish, he's dropped seven of his last eight foes and given you a real "oh my gosh" moment about cashing this prop.

At 5'10" with a 75" reach, that's no fluke. He's bleeping huge for this division.

Though we've never seen former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo just go out cold in the first round to a punch, the 37 year old is in an auspicious position up in weight at bantamweight. He's facing larger fighters, losing consecutive bouts with a -116 striking differential. He has been a punching bag, resigning to pulling guard in his last fight with Cory Sandhagen. Last week's title challenger injured his leg with a submission attempt.

Figueiredo's striking defense (49%) has always been suspect, but at 125 pounds, he had no problem eating the shots. "Quik" Jackson's outlier power marks might finally crack the chin. I've got the -340 favorite winning by knockout 38.4% of the time, and don't discount it coming on the ground if he tries to pull guard again.

Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Oliveira by Submission (+310)

Giving Charles Oliveira underdog status in Rio might be dangerous. He's 6-0 in Brazil with UFC, and all six wins came via stoppage.

Some might look at the recent resumé of "Do Bronx" and point to a decline at 35 years old, but Oliveira's three recent losses to Islam Makhachev, Ilia Topuria, and Arman Tsarukyan are to two champions and the division's No. 1 contender. Moreover, the Tsarukyan loss was a split decision.

Plus, the age factor isn't much different than Mateusz Gamrot (34) as the two match up. "Gamer" is a tough, relentless wrestler (5.03 takedowns per 15 minutes), but he's really struggled to make an imprint on lightweight's title picture because of his chin (dropped in two of his last five) and a lack of damage (3.35 significant strikes landed per minute) or submission danger (0.1 attempts per 15 minutes) that he imposes with his wrestling.

This fight is a pick 'em with two plausible theories. Can Gamrot floor Oliveira's 56% takedown defense? The answer is probably yes. However, can he avoid getting dropped for 25 minutes by Oliveira's 0.90% knockdown rate? Can he avoid the clutches of the UFC's all-time leader in submission wins (16)?

Gamrot has a massive red flag in that he's only faced one fighter that's averaged north of 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and that was Jalin Turner in a split decision where Turner tried his best to strike instead of grapple. It's not been a threat he's had to avoid in any fight.

Especially when factoring in the home field advantage, this price is too friendly to that most likely outcome. I've got Do Bronx a tiny favorite (50.2%) in this fight. Like oddsmakers, I've also modeled his most likely outcome (25.8%; +288 implied) as the patented submission.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.