UFC Perth Best Bets and Props: Ulberg vs. Reyes

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Perth: Ulberg vs. Reyes, taking place at the RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia on Saturday.

UFC Perth Betting Picks

Jamie Mullarkey vs. Rolando Bedoya

Mullarkey to Win (-122)
Mullarkey by Points (+175)

You know this card is down bad when my cover guy is Rolando Bedoya.

Bedoya is 0-3 in UFC -- although his +0.91 striking success rate (SSR) does imply he deserves better. The problem is the Peruvian's first cut to lightweight took away his efficiency (-15 striking differential) and chin (was dropped) in a fight with Jai Herbert (3-5-1 UFC). It won't really get easier against an Aussie, Jamie Mullarkey, on his home soil.

Mullarkey's chin has failed him with five knockdowns allowed in his last four fights, making it intriguing that Bedoya is yet to score one. Other than that, the five-time UFC winner has comparable distance efficiency at 155 pounds with a -0.14 SSR, and he's got all of this fight's upside to wrestle (2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes).

It's a red flag that Bedoya has failed to stuff two of three takedowns thus far when his gym, Chute Box, is notorious for an inability to do so.

Some layoffs can be twisted with any argument, but it's definitely a good thing that Mullarkey has taken over 16 months away after vicious knockout losses. My model sees Bedoya's lack of power as a soft landing spot, too.

I've got Mullarkey 59.1% likely to win this bout. I's a win by decision 38.8% of the time.

Navajo Stirling vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Bellato to Win (+198)

The parlay boys aren't going to like this one.

It's Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) season, meaning that every match with an alum could be an advertisement. While Navajo Stirling's DWCS knockout was one of the show's highlights in 2024, his declining results don't merit a price like this. He's gone to consecutive decisions in UFC, and the City Kickboxing product used three takedowns to dominate Ivan Erslan (0-2 UFC). His +3.94 SSR has mowed through suboptimal competition, but it only means so much.

Meanwhile, Rodolfo Bellato has swam with sharks to face the 18 combined UFC wins of Paul Craig, Jimmy Crute, and Ihor Potieria in three fights since his DWCS triumph. Some bumpy moments and accusations of acting aside, his -0.16 SSR is a fairly flat level of performance against fringe-ranked competition. A 100% takedown D also implies that Stirling won't have the same escape hatch here that was used against Erslan.

As it stands, neither of these guys has a credentialed win over someone with top-shelf UFC success. A win over Potieria's 2-6 record from "Trator" is probably the closest thing to that.

I've still got the Kiwi modeled with a 54.7% likelihood to win, but that leaves betting value squarely on the Brazilian at +198.

Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny

Magny by Points (+650)

I've backed Jake Matthews in five of his last six fights. I'm no stranger to his strengths and weaknesses. This price is absurd.

Just over the median age for a UFC champion at 31, Matthews has finally put his skills together to make a run toward the rankings. "The Celtic Kid" joined UFC in 2014 at the age of 18, but his striking (+0.81 SSR), wrestling (1.51 takedowns per 15 minutes), and grappling (0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes) are all positives for the welterweight division. He should be favored over Neil Magny -- just not by this much.

At 38, Magny's best days are behind him, but consecutive fights with Ian Machado Garry, Michael Morales, and Carlos Prates were a murder's row of prime title contenders. He's won his last three fights outside the rankings, including stopping Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in August.

Magny's seven-inch reach edge is always a tall task at distance, especially when Matthews is no stranger to odd performances there. Matt Semelsberger dropped him thrice. In the clinch, I'd slightly favor Matthews because of Magny's 55% takedown D, but that's also where "The Haitian Sensation" usually makes his living. He ran Mike Malott (5-1 UFC) out of gas to hand the Canadian his only career loss just simply via resisting takedowns.

I've modeled Magny as 39.8% likely to win this fight, but it's inside the distance just 12.9% of the time. A small dart at this prop in a fight that Matthews, in his home country, probably wins but doesn't cover his number is all I can advise.

Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Tavares

Jenkins by (T)KO or Points (-210)
Jenkins by (T)KO (+250)
Jenkins by (T)KO in Round 2 or 3 (+500)

This seems like a reckless move by Ramon Tavares.

Tavares is just 1-1 in UFC with minimal success. He was outlanded at distance by at least 17 strikes in both fights, and the Floridian prides himself on his boxing to the point where he has zero takedown attempts or submission tries in four UFC-affiliated appearances.

Now, he's moving up in weight to meet Jack Jenkins in Jenkins' backyard. That seems like a disaster; the larger fighter averages 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes with lethal accuracy (64%). Even if "Phar" is unable to floor Tavares, he's got extremely powerful low kicks with a +1.53 SSR at distance himself.

Jenkins has been injured and submitted by the two best grapplers he's faced, but that's not this matchup. There's one path for Tavares to win this fight. He's got to stay on the outside, protect his leg, and outbox Jenkins for 15 minutes because the durable Aussie hasn't been dropped in 225 significant strikes absorbed by actual featherweights.

I think the American gets his leg chewed up, leading to a brutal KO here. My model somewhat agrees. Circumventing the moneyline due to 0 career submission attempts, I've got Jenkins 63.0% likely to cash this combo prop. I've also got him 32.7% likely to win by knockout, and a later (T)KO read comes from those devastating calf shots.

Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan

Crute to Win (-220)
Crute Wins in Round 1 (+260)

My model adores Jimmy Crute.

Crute battled real mental demons after losing to two former title challengers, Anthony Smith and Jamahal Hill, before an unsuccessful two-part series with Alonzo Menifield where he went 0-1-1. Here's the thing, though. Two of those fighters are still ranked, and Smith retired that way.

His performances since returning have also been pretty sharp. He should have won a draw with Rodolfo Bellato due to a +17 striking differential with a first-round knockdown, but the judges didn't agree. Crute submitted Marcin Prachnio in the first round back in July, too.

The aforementioned Ivan Erslan seems knockout or bust in this spot. Erslan let Ion Cutelaba and Stirling -- a kickboxer -- land a combined six takedowns, and his takedown D (64%) is pedestrian overall entering what appears to be a prop-up spot in Australia for "The Brute".

Crute's +0.49 SSR compared to Erslan's -2.67 means my model can't even see what I'd say could be an advantage at distance for the underdog -- which is also not a given. I've got Jimmy 80.2% likely to win this fight, and I'm not completely sure it comes inside the distance when the Croatian has survived to the final bell in his first two fights.

Still, five of Crute's six UFC-affiliated wins have come in the first round. He works quickly, making it bizarre this comes at plus money in a fight where he's a heavy favorite.

Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes

Fight Starts Round 3 (-120)
Ulberg Wins After Round 2 (+158)

UFC will narrow its list of light heavyweight title contenders with this top-seven matchup. The home crowd will be behind Carlos Ulberg.

"Black Jag" has been my model's best light heavyweight for a while. That may evolve if champion Magomed Ankalaev ups his volume, but Ulberg lands 6.77 significant strikes per minute with great accuracy (55%) and an efficient rate relative to opponents (+2.56 SSR). Grappling isn't required at the top of the division, so his 85% takedown D and lone career win via sub grade out well enough that I thought he'd be champion by the end of 2025.

He'll be one fight short after his bout with Jan Blachowicz wasn't entertaining enough for Dana White, but his +16 striking differential over the former champ is another notch in his cap at this level.

I'm less convinced Dominick Reyes is back to this level of 205ers despite three straight (T)KOs. All of his opponents were at least 33 years old, and they had an average striking defense of 48%. Reyes' 1.27% knockdown rate (KD%) is worth "The Devastator" as a nickname, but Ulberg hasn't been KO'd since March 2021 and possesses a higher striking D (51%) than those foes' average.

Remember, Reyes went all 25 minutes with Jon Jones in a technical kickboxing war. Ulberg has seen the distance in both of his matchups with top-10 opponents. I could handily see both of these fighters respecting each other's power, and my model believes that is the value side. I've got this fight at 73.6% likely to see its full distance compared to FanDuel 80.0% odds, showing a bit of value on the total throughout.

I've got Ulberg 18.7% likely to win a decision compared to 8.5% for Reyes, showing that as this fight lengthens, the Australian's efficiency should pay even greater dividends. Given so much of Reyes' success is predicated on early power, I don't see his 1-3 record in five-round fights as a fluke.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.