UFC 319 DFS Picks: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev, taking place at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois this weekend.

UFC 319 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Baisangur Susurkaev ($23)

Fresh off a first-round (T)KO just this week on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS), Susurkaev attempts to take a page out of the book of his teammate and training partner, Khamzat Chimaev, with a fight just four days later. Matchmakers have done him the favor of finding an undersized Eric Nolan, Cage Fury's welterweight champ, to help make history. Nolan lacks the size and regional experience to realistically compete in this bout as much as play his part in the advertisement.

Chase Hooper ($22)

As mentioned in my UFC 319 best bets, I am totally split from oddsmakers on Hooper-Hernandez's total. The last time Hernandez fought a massive, 155-pound grappler, he was submitted by Renato Moicano in under seven minutes. Chase Hooper is one of lightweight's nastiest submission artists (2.2 attempts per 15 minutes) with increasing competence and power on the feet. I've got him 51.6% likely to find an early finish.

Kai Asakura ($21)

Asakura was thrown off the deep end in his UFC debut against the flyweight champ. It's noteworthy he's a -325 favorite in the encore over another credentialed grappler -- albeit someone finished five times in UFC. "Awkward" Tim Elliott's 9-11 career record is a softer landing spot for the former Rizin champ, who has won 16 of 21 pro fights by early finish. Asakura's striking accuracy (58%) was sharp in his UFC opener considering the opponent.

Michal Oleksiejczuk ($18)

I just can't close my eyes and envision Michael Oleksiejczuk and Gerald Meerschaert's fight starting a second round. Meerschaert has 22 pro wins via submission, and 5 of Oleksiejczuk's 6 UFC losses have come via sub. Meanwhile, "Hussar" has a huge 1.52% knockdown rate (KD%) when a 38-year-old "GM3" has mediocre striking defense (53%) and four UFC losses by (T)KO. The Polish favorite is a high-risk, high-reward option in what feels like a violent, quick bout.

Karine Silva ($17)

Silva's fight is -225 to go the distance, but in addition to the variance of a short-notice fight with Dione Barbosa, she's got power (0.68 KD%) and submission skills (1.9 attempts per 15 minutes) to finish it early if Barbosa isn't ready for her first ranked fight. "Killer" Karine is an exception to the rule of women's divisions, posting a 94.4% finish rate in her pro wins, and that has extended into UFC with three early stoppages.

Value Plays to Target

Jessica Andrade ($14)

Death, taxes, and yours truly "buying low" on Jessica Andrade. Andrade's latest failed conquest at 125 pounds means a return to strawweight opposite Loopy Godinez. Even with just a 6-7 record since the start of 2020, Andrade (+0.90 SSR) should still have the upper hand at distance over Loopy (+0.41 SSR), and "Bate Estaca" hasn't been taken down in five of her last six starts in this weight class. My model and I see this as a back-and-forth fight where I have Andrade 46.7% likely to win.

Lerone Murphy ($14)

Didn't we learn this lesson with Patchy Mix? Putting Aaron Pico, an exciting fighter from Bellator, as a favorite over an undefeated, top-10 featherweight like Lerone Murphy is ridiculous. Murphy has averaged a +63.3 striking differential in his last three fights in the rankings and can wrestle (1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes), too. Pico just hasn't faced a level of competition that can even compare to the dark horse title contender.

Drakkar Klose ($13)

This is a bizarre fight of dudes well past their prime, but Edson Barboza returning to this heavier weight class at 39 seems suboptimal. Barboza has already surrendered nine takedowns in his last four fights, and Drakkar Klose (6.11 takedowns attempts per 15) will certainly try to wrestle. Barboza's highlight-producing kicks were once awesome, but it's also a concern that his SSR has slipped to -0.54 as he's aged.

Dricus Du Plessis ($12)

In a fight -250 to not start Round 5, there's certainly an "early or late" dynamic in Saturday's middleweight title fight. Khamzat Chimaev is a hurricane in the first, but we've seen him notably slow down from such a pace when Dricus Du Plessis has won three straight fights extended to the fourth round. Neither fighter has lost in UFC, but with versatility to survive on par with a Kamaru Usman or Gilbert Burns, who both extended Chimaev all three rounds, I am backing the South African to find a late finish.

Geoff Neal ($10)

Neal and Ian Machado Garry battled in a close 2024 fight where Neal had a -19 striking differential over 15 minutes. Given Garry just mopped Carlos Prates by 70 strikes at distance, why is "Handz of Steel" a +198 underdog against the same guy? Hype. Prates' -1.19 SSR overall is poor, and his four UFC-affiliated wins have a combined 10-14 record with the promotion since the start of 2022. I'm leaning "The Nightmare" is more sizzle than substance at this stage.

The Boys have made their pick for the Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev UFC 319 Fight! Now YOU choose if you want to TAIL or FADE them with a 50% Profit Boost. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.