Super Bowl MVP Betting Odds: Who Will Win the MVP in This Year's Big Game?

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath

The Big Game is just around the corner. Super Bowl LVIII will air on Sunday, February 10th at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS, and we cannot possibly be more excited. This year's contest will feature a rematch of Super Bowl LIV with the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the San Francisco 49ers.

For those who might be new to the scene, each year's Super Bowl also crowns an MVP. The Super Bowl MVP has hailed from the winning team in all but one single year when Chuck Howley was named the MVP in a losing effort for the Dallas Cowboys. It makes sense -- what could be more valuable than helping your team win an NFL title?

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering Super Bowl MVP Betting Odds for this year's game. If you're interested in getting in on the action for the Big Game, follow along below as we walk through some of this Super Bowl's best bets and the strategies behind them.

For availability on the MVP market and other Super Bowl props, see FanDuel's Super Bowl rules page.

Super Bowl LVIII MVP Betting Odds

Patrick MahomesKCQB+135
Brock PurdySFQB+200
Christian McCaffreySFRB+450
Travis KelceKCTE+1700
Deebo SamuelSFWR+2000
Isiah PachecoKCRB+3500
Brandon AiyukSFWR+4500
View Full Table

Super Bowl LVIII MVP Betting Odds Analysis

Before we dig into the specific odds for each player listed above, let's take a look back at past Super Bowls to see if there are any identifiable trends you can leverage to your advantage this year.

As we mentioned above, virtually every Super Bowl MVP has played for the winning team. This year's Super Bowl Betting Odds market implies that we're looking at what should be an extremely close game as the 49ers are slight 2.5-point favorites. That doesn't help us narrow down the field by much, but it does keep players from both teams in play as betting options.

Historically, Super Bowl MVP voters have sided heavily with quarterbacks. In the 24 Super Bowls since 2000, quarterbacks have won the award 15 times (62.5%). Wide receivers have won the next most often, with five crowns to their position. The remaining four Super Bowl MVP awards from this period were given to defensive players, with pass rushers winning three of the four.

Considering just how dominant quarterbacks have been in this field, it's no surprise to see this game's signal callers lead the pack with their odds.

Running backs and tight ends have had very little representation in the Super Bowl MVP conversation in recent years. The most recent winner at the running back position was Denver Broncos legend Terrell Davis for his efforts back in 1998. Tight ends, sadly, have never won the award.

This year, however, the Super Bowl features two elite tight ends and the best running back in football. Can any of those players overcome the odds and bring their position an MVP win in Super Bowl LVIII?

Individual Player Odds Analysis

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+135)

It should come as little surprise that Chiefs superstar Patrick Mahomes is considered the most likely player to claim this year's Super Bowl MVP award. After all, he has already won it twice throughout his hyper-productive career. The young quarterback willed his team's offense to the Big Game, overcoming some serious personnel issues the team battled through during the season.

If the Chiefs do topple the favored 49ers, there's a very strong chance Mahomes will take MVP honors. The Chiefs' offense does not boast an elite rusher -- Isiah Pacheco is good at his job but not a superstar -- and was reliant on Mahomes to create for a team whose best pass-catcher is aging tight end Travis Kelce. When they put points on the board, it's usually Mahomes' doing.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (+1700)

Speaking of Kelce -- whose +1700 Super Bowl MVP odds rank fourth-shortest -- the future Hall of Famer would need to produce a Herculean effort to shine brighter than Mahomes. Every reception, yard, and score a pass-catcher accrues during a game also ends up on their quarterback's stat sheet, making it hard for them to surpass their QB in the eyes of the Super Bowl MVP voters.

In recent years, we have seen two wide receivers win the award: New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman and Los Angeles Rams receiver Cooper Kupp. In Edelman's case, his incredible highlight-reel-worthy play (below) saved a critical drive during his team's epic comeback from a 28-3 deficit. In Kupp's case, he caught 8 passes for 92 yards and both of his team's 2 touchdowns in the game -- including the game-winner in the final minutes of the game.

Still, those kinds of outcomes are possible for Kelce, who has reigned as the best tight end in the league for years now. He'll need a whole lot of things to break in his favor to become the first tight end to ever win the award -- especially compared to what a Mahomes win would require -- but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (+200)

If you ask me, Brock Purdy has the most narratively compelling case for the Super Bowl MVP award this year.

What could possibly be more exciting than the last overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft becoming the Super Bowl MVP only a year later? Sports just simply do not get any better than that. But does Purdy's on-field case match his off-field narrative?

As the quarterback for the slight favorites in this game, Purdy does have a strong baseline for his MVP case. But unlike Mahomes -- who has had to overcome personnel issues on the Chiefs' roster -- Purdy has benefitted from having arguably the strongest offensive skill position group in the league surrounding him.

The individual talents of players like Deebo Samuel (+2000 odds), Brandon Aiyuk (+4500 odds), and George Kittle (+7000 odds) arguably damaged Purdy's potential in-season MVP case, making it hard to give him full credit for his incredibly efficient production. But the 49ers' threat density could work in his favor as a single-game MVP candidate.

It's already hard for a single pass-catcher to produce a Super Bowl MVP-caliber game. It becomes even harder when that pass-catcher also has to compete against some of the best in the league on his own team. With Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle all vying for targets and opportunities to shine, voters could lean Purdy's way as the guy distributing the ball to those elite playmakers.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+450)

While Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle cannibalize each others' opportunities to shine, there's still one other 49ers skill position player with a potentially clearer path to a Super Bowl MVP award -- running back Christian McCaffrey.

We mentioned earlier that no running back has won the Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998, but I like McCaffrey's chances here. The star running back finished the 2023 season with a league-leading 2,023 yards from scrimmage (most by over 100 yards) and tied for the league lead in touchdowns from scrimmage with 21. Despite handling a league-high 339 touches, he committed just 3 fumbles all year. He was just on another level compared to the rest of the league this year, and we could see that play out in the Super Bowl, as well.

The Chiefs defended the pass with the best of them this year, but they struggled overall against the run. According to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, they ranked fifth-worth against opposing rushing attacks. So while they might have what it takes to curb Purdy's efficient aerial assault, they might really struggle to bottle up McCaffrey on the ground.

As McCaffrey's gaudy in-season stats illustrate, he was easily the most consistent skill position player on the 49ers' offense this season. He was undeniable around the goal line, made an impact as both a rusher and as a receiver, and ripped off flashy big plays. According to PFF, he recorded the fourth-best breakaway run rate this year. He absolutely has what it takes to break the long Super Bowl MVP dry spell running backs have endured.

The big game is right around the corner! To celebrate, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering new users a chance to get $200 in Bonus Bets. See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.