SMU vs. Florida State Prediction, Picks: 2 College Football Player Props and Best Bets

Florida State vs SMU Picks in Summary

• SMU -2.5 (-122)
• Kevin Jennings Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-132)

SMU will open its 2026 season with one of the ACC's most intriguing matchups, traveling to Tallahassee to face Florida State on tonight.

The No. 19 Mustangs are favored despite playing on the road, and for good reason. SMU returns quarterback Kevin Jennings and three starters along the offensive line from a team that averaged 32.2 points and 416.9 yards per game in 2025. Florida State, meanwhile, is already 1-0 after beating New Mexico State 34-17, but the Seminoles looked far less convincing than the final score suggests.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this game.

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Florida State vs SMU Prediction and Picks

SMU -2.5 (-122)

I'm willing to lay the points with the SMU Mustangs in their season opener.

The biggest reason is the advantage the Mustangs have at quarterback. Kevin Jennings is back for his fifth season after throwing for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2025 while completing 66.1% of his passes. He also added 259 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Just as importantly, SMU returns three offensive-line starters, giving Jennings some continuity entering this matchup.

The Florida State Seminoles‘ defense didn't exactly inspire confidence in Week 0. The Seminoles allowed New Mexico State to move the ball consistently, including 10 conversions on 17 third-down attempts, and FSU generated only three sacks. The Aggies were also able to stay competitive into the fourth quarter despite entering the game as massive underdogs.

That's a concerning matchup against an SMU offense that should be much more dangerous than New Mexico State's. The Mustangs averaged 417.0 total yards per game last season and scored at least 30 points in eight of their 13 games.

Florida State does have legitimate offensive firepower, particularly with quarterback Ashton Daniels and wide receiver Duce Robinson. Daniels accounted for 232 total yards in his FSU debut while Robinson enters the season after catching 56 passes for 1,081 yards and six touchdowns in 2025.

Still, I trust SMU's overall roster and quarterback situation more. The Mustangs have won at least nine games in three straight seasons, and I expect them to come into Tallahassee ready for this matchup.

I'll take SMU to win by at least a field goal.

Kevin Jennings Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-132)

For the player prop, I like Kevin Jennings over 1.5 passing touchdowns.

Jennings had an extremely productive 2025 campaign, throwing at least two touchdown passes in nine of his 13 games and at least three in five games. He also threw for 3,641 yards while completing 66.1% of his attempts.

This matchup gives him a chance to get back into a rhythm quickly. Florida State's secondary struggled at times against New Mexico State, and SMU has the experienced quarterback and offensive line needed to take advantage of defensive breakdowns.

I also don't expect SMU to be overly conservative offensively. This is a ranked ACC matchup on the road, one that couple have lasting ripple effects the rest of the way, and scoring touchdowns through the air is likely to be a major part of the Mustangs' game plan.

Jennings has already demonstrated that two passing touchdowns is a very attainable number for him, and I like him to reach it again Monday night.

College Football Betting FAQ

What are the most common college football bets?

The most common college football bets are the point spread, moneyline, and game total. Bettors can also wager on player props, team totals, alternate spreads, and futures such as conference champions or the national championship winner.

How does the point spread work in college football betting?

The point spread gives one team a handicap to create a more even betting market. If a team is listed at -7.5, it must win by at least eight points for a spread bet on that team to cash. A team listed at +7.5 can lose by seven points or fewer — or win outright — and still cover the spread.

What does over/under mean in college football?

An over/under, also called a game total, is a wager on the combined number of points scored by both teams. Bettors can choose whether the final score will finish over or under the sportsbook's posted total.

What should you consider before betting on college football?

Matchups, quarterback play, offensive and defensive efficiency, injuries, pace, home-field advantage, and coaching tendencies can all be important.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.