Sunday Night Football Preview: The Eagles Look to Complete Season Sweep Over the Cowboys
Week 14's Sunday Night Football matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys is about as good as it gets. These are two teams who are among the top two records in their conference, they are bitter rivals jostling for the top spot in the NFC East, and each squad features an MVP candidate. You can't ask for much more.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL MVP odds, Jalen Hurts is +350 to win the award while Dak Prescott is +300 (the two shortest odds). Both teams are also among the top six shortest odds to win the Super Bowl with the Eagles at +500 and Cowboys at +900.
Of course, this is also a pivotal race for the NFC East with Philadelphia holding a one-game lead over Dallas. The Eagles took the previous head-to-head matchup in Week 9. If Philly completes the season sweep, expect their odds of winning the division to soar (currently -490). For the Cowboys, this could be their final chance of making a push for the NFC East (currently +330).
Now that the stakes have been laid out, let's dig into the matchup. Check out FanDuel's latest NFL odds for the Sunday night showdown.
Eagles vs. Cowboys Week 14 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Spread: Cowboys -3.5 (+100)
- Total: 51.5
- Cowboys: -194
- Eagles: +162
Eagles vs. Cowboys Week 14 Matchup Analysis
The Eagles are 10-2 with the second-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl, yet they're underdogs against the Cowboys. Why? Philadelphia was trounced in a 42-19 loss against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 -- similar to Dallas' 42-10 loss against the Niners.
Additionally, the Cowboys have the longest active home win streak with 14 consecutive wins. They are also averaging 44.5 points per game (PPG) while going 3-1 against the spread (ATS) over their previous four home games. Dallas' dominance at home also goes hand in hand with their need to win the NFC East. Gaining home advantage for the playoffs could be what the Cowboys need to finally make a deep run.
The Eagles' offensive line has been the subject of criticism in recent weeks. The unit has given up an average of 3.3 sacks over the last four games, and the run game is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry over the last seven games. They also totaled only 46 rushing yards last week. The run game failed to get going in the previous meeting against Dallas at 3.3 yards per carry.
This offensive line is usually continuously praised as one of the league's best units. With recent struggles, how will they respond? The pass blocking must improve as the Cowboys have the best pass rush win rate and have the fifth-most sacks in the league (38.0). Slowing Micah Parsons will be a tall task as he posted 5.5 sacks over his previous four outings and is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year (+100).
Stopping the run has been Dallas' weakness on defense; they give up 4.1 yards per carry (11th-best), rank 22nd in run stuff win rate, and have given up 48.9 rushing yards over expectation (16th-worst). Philly could look to ride D'Andre Swift, who had only six carries last week.
On the other side of the ball, it could be about the Eagles trying to limit Dak Prescott and Co. Since the Week 5 loss against the 49ers, Prescott has been outstanding with 0.34 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB). CeeDee Lamb has terrorized defenses with 117.7 receiving yards per game, 12.3 yards per game, and 16.7 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) since Week 6.
Philadelphia has allowed -0.01 EPA/DB on the season (9th-worst) and has numberFire's 10th-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense.
Ultimately, the Eagles' run game has not been the same and found little success in the previous matchup. Philadelphia's secondary could be in store for a long night against the red-hot Prescott. Dallas is an intriguing cover with their hot streak at home; the +100 odds only sweeten the deal.
The over could also be wise with the Cowboys giving up 35 points and 334 passing yards last week.
Eagles vs. Cowboys Prop Bets
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
D'Andre Swift Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
After giving D'Andre Swift only six carries last week, the Eagles have heard run the ball all week. Eagles fans were even standing outside of the facility to urge Philly to run the rock.
Nick Sirianni says he saw the “Run The Ball” fans outside the NovaCare Complex today: “We sent them coffee. I love our fans, their passion, their energy. It’s not the first time I’ve heard “Run the ball.” And you know what? We do need to run the ball. I appreciate their energy,… pic.twitter.com/jQdWrJUEUS— Eagles Nation (@PHLEaglesNation) December 6, 2023
Philadelphia probably feels the pressure and will likely respond on Sunday. Making another Super Bowl run is unlikely without their dominant run game. This is something the Eagles must solve, and quickly.
Dallas clearly has a fearsome pass rush that few teams want to regularly drop back against. How do you slow the pass rush? How about running right at it?
Stopping the run has been perhaps the only clear flaw of the Cowboys' defense. This is nothing new; it was the same case last season. They held up well against Philly's run game in Week 9, but I don't think that will continue this week.
Taking the over for Swift's rushing yard total could be more of a gut feeling. He barely touched the ball in Week 13 and averaged 2.4 yards per carry against Dallas this season.
Ultimately, I believe in this offensive line. It is still 1st in run block win rate while the Cowboys are 22nd in run stuff win rate. Keeping Dallas' offense off of the field could also be wise as it averages 32.3 PPG (first). Deploying an effective run game could help limit the Cowboys' possessions.
Swift's workload could increase this week, leading to the over.
Dak Prescott Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+158)
I've gone over Dak Prescott's current hot streak; it's about as good as it gets. He's averaging 3.3 passing touchdowns per game over his previous six contests.
The Eagles give up 2.3 passing touchdowns per game (tied for the worst in the league). They allowed an average of 3.0 passing touchdowns per game over the last five games, including four against the 49ers last week.
Dallas' passing offense has also had Philly's number. Prescott totaled 374 passing yards, three touchdowns, and 0.14 EPA/DB in Week 9's head-to-head clash.
Dak's favorite target CeeDee Lamb has consistently torched the Eagles; he's averaging 10.5 catches, 13.5 targets, and 155.5 receiving yards per game in the last two meetings.
The Cowboys red zone offense has struggled at times, ranking 17th in scoring percentage (touchdown). However, Philadelphia holds the fourth-worst mark in opponent scoring percentage in the red zone.
With Dak's red-hot play and the Eagles' secondary and red-zone defense, Prescott could continue to stack passing touchdowns this week. The +158 odds are calling my name.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.