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CasinoStronghold: Kentucky Derby Horse Odds, History and Prediction
The 150th Kentucky Derby is nearly here, and the field of 20 three-year-old horses is set.
Stronghold netted 125 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and only two other horses earned more qualifying points.
Stronghold Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Position
Stronghold's Kentucky Derby morning line odds are 20-1 (+2000).
Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | ML Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | Danny Gargan | Luis Saez | 20-1 |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | Chad Brown | Tyler Gaffalione | 3-1 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | Kenny McPeek | Brian Hernandez | 20-1 |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | Brad Cox | Flavien Prat | 8-1 |
| 5 | Catalytic | Saffie Joseph, Jr. | Jose Ortiz | 30-1 |
| 6 | Just Steel | D. Wayne Lukas | Keith Asmussen | 20-1 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | Whit Beckman | Ben Curtis | 20-1 |
Stronghold Horse Trainer and Jockey
Trainer Phil D'Amato makes his Kentucky Derby debut with Stronghold, and jockey Antonio Fresu also rides in the Derby for the first time.
Fresu has ridden Stronghold in his last four starts, however, including the Sunland Park Derby and Santa Anita Derby wins.
Stronghold Race History
Stronghold has won half of his races and has never finished worse than second -- although the Speed Scores were sub-90 in his first four starts. The 99 at the Santa Anita Derby in early April could mean momentum.
Speed Scores via Equibase.
Date | Track | Race | Finish | Speed Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/6/2024 | Santa Anita | Santa Anita Derby (Gr. 1) | 1 | 99 |
| 2/18/2024 | Sunland Park | Sunland Park Derby (Gr. 3) | 1 | 92 |
| 12/16/2023 | Los Alamitos Thoroughbred | Los Alamitos Futurity (Gr. 2) | 2 | 89 |
| 11/19/2023 | Del Mar | Bob Hope Stakes (Gr. 3) | 2 | 88 |
| 10/1/2023 | Churchill Downs | Maiden Special Weight | 1 | 82 |
| 8/27/2023 | Ellis Park | Maiden Special Weight | 2 | 74 |
Stronghold Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick
Stronghold's 100.0% in-the-money rate is one of eight such in the field.
The form is trending up with a 93.3 average Speed Score over his last three starts, though that still ranks below average (94.8) among qualified horses.
Watch FanDuel TV's Kyle Levy analyze Stronghold below:
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