MLB

San Diego Padres Odds to Win the World Series

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere

The San Diego Padres are looking to improve on a disappointing 2023 that saw them miss the playoffs with a record of 82-80. The Padres entered last season with high hopes but ended up third in the NL West.

After a busy offseason, the Padres enter 2024 in a bit of a rebuilding mode, but they also still have a roster that can compete. Their largest obstacle? The presence of the Los Angeles Dodgers -- a team that just had one of the best offseasons in MLB history -- in their division.

What are the Padres’ odds to win the World Series, per the World Series odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The San Diego Padres are listed at +6000 to win the World Series, tied for the 18th-best odds.

Let's look at what we can expect from the Padres in 2024.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Padres World Series Odds

Padres Betting Odds

Padres Projections

nERD from numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

  • nERD: -0.13 (16th)
  • Wins: 81 (14th)
  • Runs Per Game: 4.52 (23rd)
  • Runs Allowed Per Game: 4.52 (11th)
  • Run Differential: -1 (16th)

Padres Analysis

The Padres are coming off a strange season in which they did several things right but did not get the results they were hoping for.

The Padres' 4.64 runs per game last year ranked 13th, and their 4.0 runs allowed per game ranked second. Their +104 run differential was eighth-best in baseball. They were the only team with a top eight run differential that did not make the playoffs. They were also one of only two sides -- the other being the Seattle Mariners -- that finished inside the top seven in fewest runs allowed but did not make the playoffs. The results were not there, but by several metrics, San Diego was one of the better teams in the league.

Despite that, the Padres traded superstar Juan Soto this offseason. Outfielder Trent Grisham was also moved in that same deal, a swap that saw the Padres receive several pitchers in return along with catcher Kyle Higashioka. Combined with the expected departure of Blake Snell in free agency, San Diego will enter this season with significant losses on both sides of the ball.

They head into 2024 with a roster that FanGraphs projects to be worse at the plate and on the mound than it was a year ago. They project San Diego to score 4.52 runs per game (23rd) this season -- 0.12 runs per game less than their 2023 mark. They expect the decline on the mound to be more severe, with the Padres projected to allow 4.52 runs per game (11th) -- more than a half-a-run per game worse than 2023.

The result? A -1 run differential that ranks 16th.

In another division, that baseline would leave room for potential success. In the NL West, being a .500 team almost certainly won’t get the job done against a Dodgers side that is the current favorite to win it all at +320 odds to win the World Series. In that way, the Padres are like the Boston Red Sox, a team projected to be roughly league average but playing in a very competitive division. San Diego will benefit from the projected weakness of the Colorado Rockies, but that is offset by the strength of the Dodgers.

There is still enough talent on San Diego’s roster to make the playoffs -- it is just going to be a difficult path. Winning a World Series will be even more difficult.

Every Team's Odds to Win the World Series

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (+320)
  • Atlanta Braves (+450)
  • Houston Astros (+700)
  • New York Yankees (+800)
  • Texas Rangers (+1400)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (+1500)
  • Baltimore Orioles (+1500)
  • Minnesota Twins (+2000)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (+2000)
  • Seattle Mariners (+2000)
  • St. Louis Cardinals (+3200)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (+3300)
  • Chicago Cubs (+3700)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (+4000)
  • New York Mets (+5000)
  • Boston Red Sox (+5000)
  • Cincinnati Reds (+5500)
  • San Diego Padres (+6000)
  • Detroit Tigers (+6000)
  • San Francisco Giants (+6500)
  • Cleveland Guardians (+7500)
  • Milwaukee Brewers (+8500)
  • Miami Marlins (+9000)
  • Kansas City Royals (+15000)
  • Los Angeles Angels (+18000)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (+20000)
  • Washington Nationals +25000)
  • Chicago White Sox (+25000)
  • Oakland Athletics (+50000)
  • Colorado Rockies (+50000)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.