Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 14: Newcastle Set to Host Manchester United
After a busy European week for many teams, we focus back on the domestic league for this weekend.
When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?
EPL Betting: Matchweek 14
Everton at Nottingham Forest (12:30 PM ET Saturday)
Everton Moneyline (+160)
The points deduction for financial fair play reasons has shaped Everton's season. They are currently in the relegation zone because of that.
After a rough start to the season, they had really started to distance themselves from being in the bottom three. Everton had picked up points in three straight games before losing 3-0 last week. This time, they'll have a great opportunity to get back on track.
When you look at the expected goals (xG), Everton have a +2.3 differential, according to FBref.com. That's better than Tottenham and Manchester United, who sit fifth and sixth in the Premier League table, respectively.
Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last five matches and sit 15th in the league table. Their xG differential is -5.1 , the sixth-worst in the league.
Everton are being discounted in this match because they are away from home, but they've actually been better on the road this season. They've won just once at home in the Premier League and have lost games to the likes of Fulham, Wolves, and Luton Town. Their four away wins haven't come against the toughest of competition, but it has been similar to the level of side they will face on Saturday.
Forest will be without top goal scorer Taiwo Awoniyi for this match, who will be out long term. Chris Wood will likely be their replacement at striker, and he hasn't scored more than five league goals in either of the last two seasons.
Everton are a better side than Forest and should be able to win here away from home.
Manchester United at Newcastle United (3:00 PM ET Saturday)
Newcastle Moneyline (-110)
This is a matchup between two Champions League teams that were away from home midweek.
Newcastle definitely has a rest advantage in this game, as they played in Paris on Tuesday, compared to Manchester United who played further away in Istanbul on Wednesday. These teams will likely be competing for a Champions League place by season's end, and this game could go a long way to deciding that.
Newcastle had started to hit a bad patch of form before the recent international break. They've since beaten Chelsea fairly handily and also got a creditable draw against Paris St. Germain. Currently, they are in seventh place, one place behind Man United.
The table is a bit misleading, however, as Newcastle have been much better in the xG department. They are the third-best team in xG differential in the Premier League. Meanwhile, Manchester United have a negative xG differential, -1.5, which is 11th.
Manchester United have lost every Premier League game against teams in the top eight this season and have gotten all of their wins against teams in 11th or lower.
Newcastle might just be the better team here, and with the added rest advantage, -110 isn't too big of a price to lay for them to win this game.
Yoane Wissa to Score (+165): Wissa will start up front for Brentford, who are in a great spot at home against Luton Town.
Luton have conceded the second-most xG in the Premier League this season. Wissa is not Brentford's top scorer this year but has gotten his chances. Although he's second on the team in xG with 5.0, he has scored only three.
If Brentford play as well as expected, Wissa should continue to get chances and can bag a goal at odds that are pretty favorable for us to bet.
James Ward-Prowse to Score or Assist (+140): A London derby between West Ham and Crystal Palace provides us with our second player prop to target.
James Ward-Prowse joined West Ham from relegated Southampton in the summer. He's been exactly as advertised -- a midfielder who's deadly from set pieces. JWP has picked up two goals and five assists in 12 Premier League games.
Ward-Prowse is the all-time leader in free kick goals in the Premier League. He has yet to score one this season. In this game against Palace -- who are solid defensively -- West Ham will likely need to be strong on set pieces, as the chances from open play may be few and far between. That's where JWP can excel, and we can get a goal contribution from him.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.