NRFI Best Bets to Target on Friday 7/19/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-125)

This matchup features a pair of pretty meh offenses, adding a bit of risk for this YRFI bid, but a big night for offense is always in play when Patrick Corbin takes the mound. In fact, according to today's MLB Daily Specials, this game has the second-shortest odds to be Friday's highest-scoring game (+750) behind only tonight's matchup at Coors Field.

Corbin comes out of the All-Star break with the worst ERA among qualified starters (5.57), and the scary thing is his league-worst xERA is even more ugly (6.29). He also owns the 5th-worst SIERA (4.75), 2nd-worst strikeout rate (15.9%), 3rd-worst hard-hit rate (47.7%), 2nd-worst average exit velocity (91.2 mph), and 10th-worst barrel rate (9.8%).

Any way you slice it, Corbin is getting absolutely pummeled and probably would've been pulled from the rotation long ago if the Washington Nationals didn't have the third-worst record in the NL.

Incredibly, despite his poor metrics, the left-hander has an 84.2% NRFI rate over 19 starts. However, there's little evidence to suggest this is anything other than a small-sample-size fluke. Corbin owns a 5.11 xFIP and 14.6% K rate the first time through the order, so it's not like he's fooling batters at the beginning of his starts.

The Cincinnati Reds are just 18th in YRFI rate (25.8%), but matchups don't get much better than this. The Reds should field an entire lineup of right-handed batters, and Corbin has coughed up 1.40 HR/9 against that handedness in 2024.

The Nationals have a league-worst YRFI rate (15.5%), so we should be hoping it doesn't come down to their bats in the bottom of the inning. That being said, right-hander Frankie Montas has a pretty lousy 4.71 SIERA and 4.85 xERA over his 17 starts, so there's a glimmer of hope.

More specifically, leadoff man C.J. Abrams could be a threat to do damage. Against lefties, Montas is showing a slew of poor numbers, including a 5.10 xFIP, 17.0% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate, and 1.99 HR/9. Abrams has produced a .220 ISO this year, and 12 of his 15 dingers have come off righties. He has the game's shortest odds to hit a home run (+360).

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

This is another matchup where we're largely pinning our hopes on one side, in this case the Kansas City Royals taking advantage of their spot versus right-hander Chris Flexen.

Flexen enters the day with a 4.91 SIERA and 17.1% strikeout rate while allowing 1.48 HR/9 off a 45.9% fly-ball rate. Although most of the home runs he's allowed have come off left-handed bats (11 of 16), he still has a lackluster 4.87 xFIP in same-handed matchups, so he's vulnerable against all comers.

The Royals are 11th in YRFI rate (28.9%) with a pair of dangerous sluggers in Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez batting in the top half. Perez has the game's shortest odds to hit a home run (+360), and Witt is right behind him (+390).

The lowly Chicago White Sox might not be as unproductive as the aforementioned Nats in the first inning, but they're awfully close, owning the third-worst YRFI rate (19.4%). This also isn't an amazing matchup for them against Michael Wacha, who's more or less a league-average starter this year.

However, Wacha's K rate dips to just 16.8% versus righties, and with five of the first six Chicago batters projected to bat right-handed, we should at least see this offense put the ball in play straight away.

Luis Robert has been one of the few bright spots for the White Sox and should have an easier time connecting with his 14.4% barrel rate versus a low-strikeout pitcher. Robert has this matchup's third-shortest home run odds (+400).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.